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The Great Money Grab

October 25, 2017 By E.J. Smith

You don’t want to partner with states. Your hard-earned money is too valuable. When states get in trouble, you—the investing class—are the ones they go to first with palms outstretched. That’s exactly what’s playing out in Stockton, California, as creditors (investors) are getting scalped while the pensions go untouched. [expand title="Click here to read more."] Pensions combine the two most destructive forces—money and politicians. Digging through the minutiae of a pension gives you a front-row seat to observe the destructive forces at work. Take Rhode Island, for example. It has … [Read more...]

Spectacular Stock Market Performance

April 2, 2013 By E.J. Smith

You may have heard about the spectacular performance of our Retirement Compounder’s common stock program. The concept of investing in dividend paying stocks is simple. Yet execution is far from simple. If you want the power of compounding working for you, then it’s time you got on board. You don’t want to miss the boat. … [Read more...]

Going Broke!

May 18, 2017 By E.J. Smith

If you feel like you’re spending too much don’t feel so bad. These guys take it to another level. 15 Ways Professional Athletes Go Broke By Tony Manfred | Business Insider – Mon, Mar 11, 2013 9:58 AM EDT Two very different ex-NBA players ran into financial issues in two very different ways recently. Robert Swift — who earned $11 million in three seasons — had his house foreclosed on after prematurely flaming out of the NBA and apparently not doing much else. Allen Iverson — who earned $154 million in salary — found out the hard way what happens when you keep living the good life after the … [Read more...]

Record-Breaking Munis

March 19, 2013 By E.J. Smith

These are the kinds of records you don’t want to break. Illinois is the second state in history to be charged with securities fraud for failure to disclose its pension liability. It joins New Jersey. You don’t want anything to do with Illinois municipal bonds. The long-term secular decline in rates started in the early ’80s, and is now over, along with the easy money in bonds. When states like Illinois run out of money, who’s going to pay muni investors back? Why stick around in an investment when its key benefit, tax-free status, is controlled by politicians? It wouldn’t shock me if they … [Read more...]

It’s Never Too Late for Dividend Religion

March 12, 2013 By E.J. Smith

It’s never too late to get some dividend religion. Yes the media is all over this record-setting Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). But what good is a record if you didn’t participate in it? I’m afraid that’s the truth that too many investors would not care to admit. It’s never fun when you miss the boat. Companies are drowning in cash, partly because they’re too scared to do anything with it. That’s why this year will be a record year for dividends and stock buybacks. I prefer dividends because I trust myself more than the corporate guys who are good at exploiting business opportunities … [Read more...]

What to Do about Vanguard GNMA

October 25, 2017 By E.J. Smith

You don’t want to sell Vanguard GNMA. I know its price is down. And often, when investors see share prices go down, they sell. They follow the herd. Resisting that impulse isn’t easy. But the herd forgets that stocks were slaughtered in 2008 while GNMA was a port in the storm. You can bet there will be another stock market crash as bad as or worse than 2008. It’s really just a matter of when. 2008 wasn’t a bloodbath for everyone. The average GNMA fund tracked by Morningstar was up 6.6%. It was a terrific year. Unfortunately, it seems you can count on one hand the lucky few who stuck … [Read more...]

A Winning Stock Policy for You

October 25, 2017 By E.J. Smith

Thinking about all the cash Apple is holding on to makes me wonder about its dividend policy. Some of that cash would probably be better off in the hands of stockholders. I’ve been spending some time reviewing my copy of Security Analysis by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd. I’ve had the book since the early ’90s, when I was at Babson College. What Graham and Dodd wrote in the early ’30s on dividends applies just the same today. Here’s what they had to say: Dividend Policies Arbitrary and Sometimes Selfishly Determined. –One of the obstacles in the way of an intelligent understanding by … [Read more...]

This Stock Rally Is a Dud

October 25, 2017 By E.J. Smith

Investors are not paying attention to the real returns of this stock market. Rich Karlgaard, publisher of Forbes, wrote a spot-on piece recently in The Wall Street Journal. He pointed out that the S&P 500 is up 124% over the past four years, but gold is up 88%, oil 106%, and silver 167%. The broad correlation between stocks and commodities implies that dollar weakness is driving prices higher, not the fundamentals of supply and demand. In light of that, the stocks’ returns aren’t that great in real-dollar terms. Karlgaard also compares this rally to that of the 1974–80 market when the … [Read more...]

Like a Rolling Stone

February 21, 2013 By E.J. Smith

Japan’s stock market is up 9.3% this year (chart 1). But in US dollar terms it’s up only 0.6% (chart 2). As you can see, attempts at currency debasement are not a road to prosperity. Even with extraordinarily loose monetary policy for decades, Japan has not been able to devalue its currency compared to the dollar to boost its flagging economy with cheap exports (chart 3). It’s a quick fix to an economy with structural problems that will eventually be reflected in the stock market (chart 4). It’s a recipe for an economy that’s like a rolling stone—with no direction home (chart … [Read more...]

These Interest Rates Are Up

October 25, 2017 By E.J. Smith

When interest rates go up, it will happen overnight, and you won’t know about it until it’s too late. That’s the predicament the state of Illinois found itself in after it decided to shelve a bond deal literally hours before issuing them Wednesday. Why? Because the market demanded a higher rate of return than the state wanted to pay or could afford to pay. The state had hoped to raise $500 million (read: money to pay for pensions) with a school and transportation offering. But it got a good dose of sticker shock when it realized how much it would cost in interest payments. What did state … [Read more...]

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