Young Research & Publishing Inc.

Investment Research Since 1978

Disclosure

  • About Us
    • Contributors
    • Archives
    • Dick Young’s Safe America
    • The Final Richard C. Young’s Intelligence Report
    • You’ve Read The Last Issue of Intelligence Report, Now What?
    • Dick Young’s Research Key: Anecdotal Evidence Gathering
    • Crisis at Vanguard
  • Investment Analysis
    • Bonds
    • Currencies and Gold
    • Dividend Investing
    • ETFs & Funds
    • Investment Strategy
    • Retirement Investing
    • Stocks
    • The Efficient Frontier
  • Investment Counsel
  • Dynamic Maximizers®
  • Retirement Compounders®
  • Free Email Signup

Bullish for Main Street, Bearish for Wall Street

March 4, 2011 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Lots of new data on labor market came out this week. I want to run through a few charts on the more important data points. First is the February ISM manufacturing index. The employment component of the manufacturing index surged to its highest level in almost four decades. The last time hiring intentions in the manufacturing sector were this strong was in 1973. The employment component of the non-manufacturing sector was also strong. My chart shows that non-manufacturing employment intentions reached their highest level since 2006.

Jobless claims also improved more than expected this week. Economists were looking for initial claims for unemployment to rise from last week’s level of 391,000 to 395,000, but instead claims fell to 368,000. That is the lowest number of unemployment claims since mid-2008. Jobless claims below 400,000 have historically been associated with sustained employment growth.

This week’s most important employment data was released on Friday in the February jobs report. The headline numbers that economists and investors tend to focus on are the change in nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate. The consensus estimate for the change in nonfarm payrolls was an increase of 196,000. The actual change in nonfarm payrolls was an increase of 192,000, which missed estimates, but private-sector employment increased by 222,000—exceeding estimates by 22,000. The monthly increase in private payrolls (see chart) was the best since April of last year.

For unemployment, economists were anticipating a 9.1% rate, but instead the unemployment rate fell to 8.9%. February marks the third consecutive month that the unemployment rate has declined.


 

The February employment data indicate that the labor market is finally showing meaningful signs of improvement. That is encouraging for millions of unemployed Americans, but not Wall Street. Ironically, a strong labor market is bearish for stocks. The Fed’s unprecedented monetary stimulus has inflated stock prices to levels that are higher than they would be without the support. If the central bank starts withdrawing monetary accommodation, the ongoing speculative rally in stocks may falter. And given the forward-looking nature of markets, the rally could falter sooner than some may expect.

Share this:

  • Email
  • Twitter
  • Facebook

You Might Also Like:

  • Is Musk Losing Wall Street?
  • The Most Crowded Trade on Wall Street
  • China Asks Wall Street How to Reform its Laws
  • Author
  • Recent Posts
Jeremy Jones, CFA
Jeremy Jones, CFA, CFP® is the Director of Research at Young Research & Publishing Inc., and the Chief Investment Officer at Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. was ranked #5 in CNBC's 2021 Financial Advisor Top 100. Jeremy is also a contributing editor of youngresearch.com.
Latest posts by Jeremy Jones, CFA (see all)
  • Is the Great Job Boom Over? - June 24, 2022
  • Will ESG Do to Steel Prices What It Did to Gas Prices? - June 23, 2022
  • Apple Shares Resilient in the Face of Recession - June 22, 2022

Search Young Research

Most Popular

  • Will the Fed Stick to Its Course?
  • RECESSION? Dow 25,000, $8 Gas, Rising Interest Rates, Spell Mid-term Crack Up
  • Investing During a Recession
  • Swiss National Bank Surprises World with Rate Hike
  • Kellogg Cuts Loose with Split Plan
  • The Power of a Compound Interest Table
  • MONEY TALKS: The Best Service in Paris
  • Predictions of MEGA-SPENDING on Metaverse
  • Apple Shares Resilient in the Face of Recession
  • Vanguard Wellesley (VWINX) vs. Wellington (VWELX): Which Fund is Best?

Don’t Miss

Default Risk Among the Many Concerns with Annuities

Risk and Reward: An Efficient Frontier

How to be a Billionaire: Proven Strategies from the Titans of Wealth

Could this Be the Vanguard GNMA Winning Edge?

Cryptocosm and Life After Google

Warning: Avoid Mutual Fund Year End Distributions

Is Gold a Good Long-term Investment?

How to Invest in Gold

Vanguard Wellington (VWELX): The Original Balanced Fund

What is the Best Gold ETF for Investing and Trading?

Procter & Gamble (PG) Stock: The Only True Dividend King

The Dividend King of the North

You’ll Love This if You’re Dreaming of an Active Retirement Life

RSS The Latest at Richardcyoung.com

  • Greetings From Paris & Le Bristol Hotel
  • The Most Controversial Restaurant in Paris?
  • Your Survival Guy: Clearing the Decks, Buying a Boat, Seeing the World and More
  • Russia’s “Unsubtle” Artillery Attacks Not Necessarily “Archaic”
  • FLORIDA DODGED A BULLET: Elected Superb DeSantis Over Unstable Gillum
  • Biden, a Job Killing Machine
  • Good News for the 2nd Amendment
  • La Fontaine De Mars: Best Sunday Paris Lunch
  • My 10 Favorite Books about France, Plus a Bonus for You
  • BREAKING: Supreme Court DISMANTLES New York’s Unconstitutional Gun Laws

About Us

  • About Young Research
  • Archives
  • Contributors

Our Partners

  • Richard C. Young & Co.
  • Richardcyoung.com

Copyright © 2022 | Terms & Conditions

 

Loading Comments...
 

    loading Cancel
    Post was not sent - check your email addresses!
    Email check failed, please try again
    Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email.