Patience, dear reader. Easy to write. Harder to do. With so much going on this week: the Super Bowl, Tucker’s interview with Putin, China’s deflationary death spiral, the border, Trump/Biden, three-hour podcasts, AI, and Iran, to name a few—How is one to focus on their future? Let’s talk about podcasts for a moment. Your Survival Guy listened to most of Joe Rogan’s podcast with Yellowstone creator Taylor Sheridan. It was over three hours. Rogan does an incredible job engaging his guests and being engaged. I think he does at least one interview a day. He patiently digs in deeper and deeper, … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge February: When to Buy or Sell?
Your Survival Guy’s February RAGE Gauge is in, and it’s not terrible. Finally, we have some yields we can sink our teeth into, and dividend-paying stocks are getting more respect. That’s good. Plus, it’s an election year, and the Fed, a political beast, is aiming to please. But there’s plenty of reasons for concern, too. My RAGE Gauge is a tick lower, which leads me to another question to ask your potential advisor: How do you manage money in bad markets? Your Survival Guy’s weathered some tough ones, mostly created by the bad behavior of others: the demise of the hedge fund Long Term … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge September: “We’re Moving On,” They Say
Your Survival Guy’s September RAGE Gauge is in, and it’s not pretty. What did you expect me to say? The reality is what it is. It’s the world we’re living in right now. Americans are feeling unsure about the direction of the country. The presidential debate did provide a bit of optimism, but not much. Because the feeling on the ground—on Main Street, USA—is one of concern about whether this will be a battle between Biden and Trump. There’s downright fear about what this will look like. The dividend yield on the Dow Jones Industrial Average is hardly encouraging, like an anchor dragging … [Read more...]
May RAGE Gauge: Money Supply Meltdown
My RAGE Gauge is in, and it isn't good. All month Your Survival Guy monitors risk in America, and there's one that far outweighs the others. That's a miscalculation by the Federal Reserve. For years the Fed has jumped from one unprecedented policy to another, reacting to each move of the market like it's putting a candle out with a firehose. Now the Fed is driving up rates and, for the first time in history, creating a sustained decline in the M2 money supply. You've seen what's going on in the banking system. The Fed's moves are uncovering its bad actors. The risk is that there are too … [Read more...]
February RAGE Gauge: How Will YOU Feel in Retirement?
You can feel the tension. Americans are not happy, and they see the mounting risks facing them in the future. My RAGE Gauge, a measure of risk in America, has been pegged at the maximum for a long time now, and it's hard to see that changing anytime soon. Faced with inflation, the prospect of nuclear war, a flood of illegal immigration, and crime spiking to rates not seen in decades, is it any wonder Americans are worried? One of the biggest worries Americans face is what they'll do about retirement. If this was forwarded to you. Join the club. Sign Up here for my weekly email. OK. … [Read more...]
November RAGE Gauge: Live a Life of Balance, Especially in Your Investments
A balanced portfolio is far from dead. It keeps you in the game, so you don’t have to time the market. Yesterday was the biggest one-day percentage gain for stocks since the depths of Covid and the biggest one-day plunge in 2 and 10-year treasury bond yields in over a decade (remember, when rates fall, bond prices increase). You don’t want to be in the prediction business. Markets are in the business of making winners and losers daily. I want you to focus on investing to earn dividends and interest. Let the prices do what they do—I don’t need to be in the rah, rah, rah business. This is … [Read more...]
July RAGE Gauge: How to Invest Now for a Five Year Window
OK, my latest RAGE Gauge is in, and it’s not pretty. What’d you expect me to say? Dissatisfaction with the direction of America is at lows not usually met EVER. Gun sales are up probably due to gun control legislation being pushed even after the Supreme Court’s recent pro-gun decision. Employment is up. If you want a job, you can get one. Gold hasn’t moved much, probably because of dollar strength (for now) and rising rates. Remember, this is a competition between asset classes. All in all, not a great feel to be kind. On the rough and tumble streets of Newport, RI, it’s busy but not crazy … [Read more...]
June RAGE Gauge: Hunker Down, Avoid Stupid Mistakes
Good morning from Your Survival Guy. Are we having fun yet? Listen, markets are brutal. It’s why I’ve cautioned you from the beginning to focus on keeping what you make and not hoping for markets to do something for you. Now is a perfect time to be reminded of the words of wisdom of the late great Jack Bogle, founder of Vanguard: "Don’t just do something, stand there.” And yet, the pressure to do something continues to grind away at participants, forcing them to sell so they can sleep or to stop the question: “How much are we down now?” When will it stop? When the selling stops. When … [Read more...]
RAGE GAUGE: INVESTOR CARNAGE—Losing Control of Your Money
If you’re feeling like you’re losing control of your money, there may be some truth to that. Do you want your investments used as a tool to invest in other people’s political agendas? When it comes to ESG and BlackRock, for example, that’s exactly what’s happening. Through their mutual funds and ETFs, you’re part of their political crusade. But being part of their political crusade probably isn’t one of the reasons you invested with them to begin with. No offense to BlackRock, but this is about your agenda—your retirement. Why would you waste your time with mutual funds when they’re … [Read more...]
April RAGE Gauge: The Separation of States Predicted
You can see with your own eyes the separation of states. This isn't Lincoln's Civil War; it's the virtual war of our times. Never in our lifetime has the crossing of borders from blue state to red meant so much for one's freedom. Look at the outcomes from COVID and how it was handled across red states vs. blue. The red states won by a landslide. The Wall Street Journal's editorial board writes: The nearby table shows the state ranking based on a combined score of the three variables. Utah ranks first by a considerable margin over Nebraska and Vermont. The Beehive State scored well across all … [Read more...]
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