When the S&P 500 lost 9 percent in December it marked the worst December since the Great Depression year of 1931 when the index was down 14.5%. For all of 2018, the S&P 500 lost 6.2% compared to a loss of 47% in 1931. Now let’s not forget what the carnage looked like from the beginning of the Great Depression, signaled by the crash of Oct. 29, 1929, to its end in June 1932. The S&P 500 dropped 86 percent in less than three years, and did not regain its previous peak until 1954. America has already had two nasty peak to troughs this century, with the tech and banking busts of … [Read more...]
Rage Gage October: Interest Rates and Employment Up, Up, and Away
My early October readings are in, and clearly Americans are back to work thanks to the Trump Economic Revolution. And as interest rates rise, retired and soon to be retired investors can rejoice in the long-awaited Interest Rate Revolution. CNBC explained the good news for America's economy here: The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to a near 49-year low last week, pointing to sustained labor market strength, which should continue to underpin economic growth. The labor market, which is viewed as being near or at full employment, is steadily … [Read more...]
RAGE Gage September: Imagine Interest Rate Levels in a Year
September's RAGE Gauge was little changed from the previous month. Fast forward for a moment and imagine where interest rates will be one year from today. Because yesterday, the Federal Reserve increased rates for the third time this year and the eighth since late 2015 and has basically said expect much more to come. There is a Titanic like shift underway with bonds. Wait until corporate bond yields are at a level where finally you won’t need as much of the fois gras stock market, which has been force fed by the likes of Ben Bernanke et al. Imagine the competition stocks will face then, and … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge August : Summer Slumber?
My overall trend reading was down from July. Investors are feeling a little too comfortable in this stock market. Yes, the economy looks good, but this bull market is long in the tooth. Now would be an excellent time to look for defensive stocks for your portfolio. “Valuation concerns have already crept into the market, some investors said, as defensive stocks that tend to post lower growth than companies like Amazon and Facebook have outperformed,” reports the WSJ. “The top five performing S&P 500 sectors the past three months are all defensive, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge July: America the Satisfied?
Over the last month, Americans’ perception of risk hasn’t changed much. One factor of their perceived risk is at a very low level though, their dissatisfaction with their country. For over a decade now Gallup’s poll of American dissatisfaction with the country has been 61% or higher. Not since August of 2005 have only 60% of Americans been dissatisfied. That changed with this month’s survey results. For the first time in 13 years, dissatisfaction dropped down to 60%. Satisfaction is also the highest it has been since 2005, at 38%. Not since September of 2005 have Americans been so … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge June: The Trump Economy
We can thank President Trump for unleashing the animal spirits that have been key to this economic resurgence: Business Owners of America Unite! And we may be seeing just the beginning of the economic growth to come. But, from an investment standpoint, especially for those in or near retirement, it continues to be a sticky situation. Do you put more money into a bull market that is long in the tooth only to have it ripped in two with a nasty correction? Or, do you take the high road and suffer along with two percent rates, gritting your teeth, as your nephew talks about cryptos? Continue … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge: Sell in May?
Sell in May? Not if you have a plan you don’t. Successful investing requires that you have a plan and the patience to stick to it. Being paid to be in the market through dividends from stocks, and interest from bonds, makes the waiting all the more palatable. Risk continues to be high. Stocks continue to feel like a popularity contest, especially the FAANGs. We know how that story ends. Originally posted on Yoursurvivalguy.com. … [Read more...]
April 2018 RAGE Gauge Report
When you’re in the gun business is there a better salesman than former Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens? With Stevens talking about repealing the Second Amendment, it’s no surprise background checks, a precursor to gun sales are, are up. The risk trend in my RAGE Gauge analysis is up too across the board, except for one metric, unemployment. Thank you, Mr. Trump. Continue to invest with caution. By the way, did you see the unemployment rate numbers for Elkhart-Goshen, Indiana? It was 16.7% in October 2009 and is around 2.7% today. The RV business is humming. Originally … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge: March Full of Risk
Perhaps the second best gun salesman behind Obama is former Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens. While Mr. Stevens is calling for the repeal of the Second Amendment, real Americans are trying to figure out how to protect their family and their constitutional rights. Don’t delay in making sure your family and your portfolio are secure. My March Rage Gauge indicator continues to signal that risk is a four letter word that many are failing to pay attention to. Originally posted on Yoursurvivalguy.com. … [Read more...]
Dow Swings 2,000 Points: My February RAGE Gauge
Make sure you have your investment plan in place sooner than later. There may be some rough waters to navigate. Inflation numbers out today could foretell some tough times as the Fed may be forced to respond. When a record share of small businesses say now is an opportunity to expand operations I pay attention. Bloomberg reports: Six of the 10 components that make up the small-business optimism index increased in January, producing one of the strongest readings in the 45-year history of the survey. The figures show sustained, sturdy business sentiment since the November 2016 election. A … [Read more...]