How are you feeling? According to my March RAGE Gauge, pretty darn good. It’s never looked so good. That’s a warning sign right there. When the coast appears to be clear, it’s time to consider putting up your defenses and to continue thinking about survival first and making money second. This month the FBI reported the first drop in February pistol background checks in three years. They also recorded the first trailing 12-month decline in NICS checks in 26 months. Stocks are up, interest rates are invisible, and yet gold is up. What are gold investors telling us? Determine your margin of … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge: The Roar of the Silent Majority
You heard the silent majority speaking loud and clear in November’s presidential election, and now the results are in. For the first time in 3-years there was a decline in year-over-year background checks for pistols—a barometer for sales—and a 29% decline from the same month last year. Isn’t it amazing what a president can do to the psyche of a nation? But a populist in the White House won’t be cheap and that’s reflected in the 5% surge last month in gold prices as the market anticipates higher inflation down the road. How much higher? Populism can be expensive. Continue to invest with … [Read more...]
January 2017 RAGE Gauge Surprise
The numbers are in and my January RAGE Gauge has never looked better, with a reading of Neutral. This is not a stock market indicator, far from it, stocks are not cheap. It is a pulse of the social, political and economic landscape using a proprietary method I’ve devised and tweaked over time. I use it as a back-of-a-napkin snapshot to give me a feel for the current landscape. One component I like to use is background checks, a barometer for final handgun sales, and a measure of fear. The December reading is the first since April 2014 that didn’t produce a record high for its month. This … [Read more...]
December RAGE Gauge: It’s not all Guns and Roses, Keep Your Eye on the Gold
Yours truly has the December Rage Gauge tallied, and it’s actually the best I’ve seen all year: Neutral to Elevated Risk. Thank you Mr. Trump. Bond investors, if you listened to us and kept maturities short, you should be smiling. Not true for the turkey-faced, long-term bondholders that stooped for nickels and got steamrolled by the selloff. Speaking of steamrolled, the White House must be feeling joyful about the recent unemployment rate of 4.6%. But before they light that candle, let’s not forget the workforce cake shrank to a near-four decade low with a participation rate of only … [Read more...]
Rage Gauge November: Putting Lipstick on the Pig
The numbers aren’t pretty but that’s not stopping the government from smearing lipstick on this pig. Friday’s jobs report was lukewarm with the economy adding a fewer-than-expected 161,000 jobs in October. We’ll have to wait for the post-election adjustment. Unemployment inched lower as the burger flipper jobs increased. ZeroHedge notes that the number of multiple jobholders has hit a 21st century high as people scramble to maintain their standard of living against an unpromising jobs landscape. The Fed punted on rate increases, preferring to wait until December, reinforcing the idea that … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge: October Not Surprising to Me
Non-farm employers added 156,000 jobs in September as the unemployment rate edged up 0.1% to 5%. The participation rate rose slightly to 62.9%, while 94,184,000 Americans were not in the labor force, 207,000 fewer than in August. Interest rates plunged in September after the Fed, as we expected, did nothing with rates, and are back up now. Not much good to report on “dissatisfaction with the country.” Gold is well below $1,300 at $1,254. If it was a good value last month, it’s a better one today. Background checks broke another monthly record in September as concerns mount about the future of … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge for September
The RAGE Gauge for September continues to signal High Risk. The most significant contributor to this month’s reading was the all-time record of handgun background checks for the month of August at 611,575. Gold pulled back over the last 30-days, but is still holding strong at the $1,300/troy oz. support level while the yield on the 3-month T-Bill ticked higher. Both are an indication the market is taking Federal Reserve threats of rate increases more serious. I don’t expect the Fed to rock the boat much prior to the election. … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge: Americans Unhappy
Throughout July, Americans signaled that they're feeling more risk. Gold prices pushed higher, people bought more guns, and most frighteningly, dissatisfaction with the country jumped from 69% to 82%. It's obvious the current political campaign is having an effect on people's moods, and rightly so. No matter who you're voting for, no one can deny this has been one of the most divisive, scandal filled, and partisan elections in memory. The RAGE Gauge remains at High Risk. But politics isn't the only thing creating risk. Deutsche Bank reported recently that the U.S. has a 60% chance of … [Read more...]
Rage Gauge: 64 People Shot in Chicago
64 people were shot in Chicago over the Fourth of July weekend. Where’s the outrage? “Through June, there had already been 315 homicides in Chicago this year, which is a 49% increase over the first half of last year,” writes Jason Riley in the WSJ, author of Please Stop Helping Us: How Liberals Make it Harder for Blacks to Succeed. “The political left’s response to gun violence is typically more gun control, even though the places with the biggest problems tend to sport harsher firearms restrictions, and criminals by definition ignore laws.” The article concludes that there is no link to … [Read more...]
The First RAGE Gauge Reading Signals High Risk
For June 2016, my RAGE Gauge signals: High Risk Tension is high on the social and economic fronts. FBI Background checks continue to trend higher, dissatisfaction with the direction of the country is trending high, and the underemployment rate (U6) isn’t real encouraging in this sluggish economy. But it’s a sluggish economy with inflation. You need only look at your checkbook and credit card bills, not the government’s worthless CPI, to find it: Education, Condo’s in Boston/NYC/Miami, food (the type you buy) and taxes to name a few are sky-high. Gold is up 20% YTD. Your dollars are getting … [Read more...]
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