By marketlan @Adobe Stock

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reports that U.S. natural gas prices are expected to rise in 2025 and 2026 due to higher demand, particularly from LNG exports, with prices reaching $3.10 per MMBtu in 2025 and $4.00 per MMBtu in 2026. They write:

We expect increases in the Henry Hub natural gas price in 2025 and 2026 as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply, driven mainly by more demand from U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities, reducing the natural gas in storage compared with the last two years. In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to increase in 2025 to average $3.10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) and in 2026 to average $4.00/MMBtu from the record low set in 2024.

In 2025, we expect increases in demand, which includes domestic natural gas consumption and exports, will exceed increases in supply, which includes domestic natural gas production and imports. Consumption and exports increase by almost 3%, or 3.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), in our forecast, outpacing the 1.4 Bcf/d growth in production and imports, leading to a 43% increase in the Henry Hub price. In 2026, we expect demand to continue to grow faster than supply, increasing prices by an additional 27%. […]

Total U.S. demand for natural gas increases in 2025 by 3.2 Bcf/d and in 2026 by an additional 2.6 Bcf/d in our forecast, driven by more demand for natural gas for LNG exports. In 2025, LNG exports grow by 2.1 Bcf/d and in 2026 they grow by an additional 2.1 Bcf/d. The increase is the result of the start-up of three new LNG export facilities: Plaquemines LNG, Corpus Christi Stage 3, and Golden Pass LNG. Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi Stage 3 will continue ramping up to full operations in our forecast period, and we expect Golden Pass LNG to begin operations by the middle of 2026. […]

Dry natural gas production is the driver of supply growth in our forecast, increasing by 1% to 104.5 Bcf/d in 2025 and by nearly 3% to 107.2 Bcf/d in 2026. The increase in production comes mainly from the Permian region in 2025 and from the Haynesville and Permian regions in 2026. Growth in the Permian region follows increased crude oil production because most natural gas production in the Permian is associated gas production. Growth in Haynesville production in 2026 is driven by higher natural gas prices and increased demand from nearby new LNG export projects in the Gulf Coast region.

U.S. natural gas inventories were above their rolling five-year averages for all of 2023 and 2024, driving down natural gas spot prices in both years and contributing to multiple monthly record lows set in 2024. Because we expect demand to exceed supply over the next two years, the natural gas spot price increases in our forecast, and natural gas inventories fall below rolling averages starting in 2025 and continuing into 2026.

Read more here