Not to bore you with math, but investing is math. Hoping for a stock to get to some price is just that, a hope. It’s qualitative, not quantitative. Collecting income from all areas of your portfolio—even that money your nephew owes you—is quantitative. You can actually see it hit your portfolio, your bank account, or your wallet. When I think about the magic of compounding money, I think about math. It’s simple. You get paid like you did from your nephew. You got back what you lent out (though maybe you didn’t expect it) and usually some interest. But because he’s your sister’s son, you … [Read more...]
Archives for October 2023
Global Economic Activity Outlook
John Kemp of Reuters reports that the global business cycle is in transition. He writes: Global economic activity was mixed during the third quarter of 2023, with distinct signs of improvement in the United States and China but continued sluggishness elsewhere. Global industrial production was up by just 0.4% in August 2023 compared with the same month a year earlier, according to estimates compiled by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB). But trade volumes were down by 3.8% in August compared with a year earlier and have not grown for a year, a sign of stagnation … [Read more...]
Could Cooling Inflation Provide a Reason to Hold Rates?
Justin Lahart of The Wall Street Journal tells readers that investors are pretty sure that not only will the Fed not raise rates this week, but that it won’t be raising them again this year or next. He writes: For a quick rundown of the challenges Federal Reserve policy makers will be sorting through when they meet this week, last week’s economic data fits the bill. Start with gross domestic product. The Commerce Department on Thursday reported that the economy grew at a blistering 4.9% annual rate in the third quarter, marking the fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 2021. The last … [Read more...]
Investing Is Math
Sorry to burst your bubble, but investing is math. Sure, prices are fun to watch, but they aren’t the math of collecting income from your stocks, bonds, or that nephew who owes you. That’s math. You can see the money, rent, dividends, income, and even crumpled dollars coming into your possession. That’s investing. Look at today’s yields on bonds. Finally, you can sink your teeth into them. You can plunk $100,000 in a one-year bond yielding five percent and be pretty sure, especially in Treasurys, you’re getting $5000 plus your original outlay at maturity. You can’t say that about prices. … [Read more...]
U.S. Soybean Meal Shipments to Break Record in 2024
Kim Chipman and Tarso Veloso Ribeiro of Bloomberg are telling readers that oil from crushed soybeans is the key ingredient in green diesel. They write: Shipments of US soybean meal to other countries are expected to climb to a record high next year as more of America’s top oilseed crop is crushed for vegetable oil sought after to make green diesel. America’s soy meal, which is created along with oil during crushing of whole soybeans, is forecast to reach exports of 13.9 million tons in the 2023-24 season, the US Department of Agriculture said Monday. That would exceed the record 13.2 … [Read more...]
Spooky Prices for Halloween Candy
Joseph De Avila and Joseph Pisani of The Wall Street Journal report that prices for candy and gum jumped 7.5% in September, compared with the same month last year. They write: Scary-high candy costs are giving consumers a fright this Halloween. Gretchen Alvarez of Sacramento, Calif., said she passed on purchasing a $24 bag of organic, allergy-friendly candy. She bought a few bags of cheaper traditional candy instead. Because of the rising cost of sweets, Alvarez is limiting each trick-or-treater to one piece of candy. Last year, she let them take as much as they liked. “It is making … [Read more...]
If You’re Overexposed to Stocks, Then Look Here
If you’re overexposed to the stock market, it’s been a long time since risk-free Treasury bills offered yields like these. Yields you can sink your teeth into and do it again in a few months. Your Survival Guy isn’t in the prediction business. Predictability is not something you can say about tech-heavy Nasdaq, for example. Because we’ve seen how long it can stay down when problems arise. But that’s not my concern today. My concern is making sure you have multiple streams of income, so to speak. And I like doing it without you being exposed to leverage, which basically eliminates … [Read more...]
Eurozone on Brink of Recession? ECB Halts Record Rate Run Increase
Tom Fairless and William Boston of The Wall Street Journal report the record run on rate increases by the European Central Bank has ended at ten on fears of recession. They write: The European Central Bank held interest rates steady, ending a historic run of 10 consecutive rate increases as Europe’s currency union teeters on the brink of recession and uncertainty rises around the global economy. Major central banks including the Federal Reserve have paused interest-rate increases after a rapid series of hikes as inflation eases from last year’s multidecade highs. Now investors are … [Read more...]
Global Shipping Demand Disappoints
Will Feuer of The Wall Street Journal tells readers how the new contract with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters and a slowdown in global shipping demands caused a shipping giant to cut its outlook. He writes: United Parcel Service (UPS) cut its sales outlook after revenue slipped in the third quarter because of a slowdown in global demand for shipping. The package-delivery company's stock dropped more than 5% to around $139. Shares were already down more than 15% this year through Wednesday’s market close. Chief Executive Carol Tomé said macroeconomic factors … [Read more...]
Investing Habits of the Fairly Wealthy: #6 Armadillo
When I was a kid, we took a lot of trips to Disney World, and when we were there, we stayed at Fort Wilderness. One day, a day off from the parks, my dad and I rented a canoe. Floating near the shore, we noticed these little animals digging in the dirt with what looked like a shell as hard as armor. “Those are armadillos,” my dad said. “They're harmless.” They didn’t look harmless to me, and I was sure I didn’t need to see them up close, but he thought we should. As we got closer, I said, “Dad, that’s close enough.” “OK,” he said, “I’ll turn us around.” Easier said than done, as … [Read more...]
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