Young Research & Publishing Inc.

Investment Research Since 1978

Disclosure

Gold, Silver, and Currencies

Young Research & Publishing has been providing research and insights on precious metals and currency markets to institutional investors, corporate financial officers, business owners, and individual investors for over four decades. Richard C. Young started Young Research & Publishing in the 70s to publish the authoritative Young's World Money Forecast, a 50-page monthly investment report on the precious metals and currency markets. Today, our research on gold, silver, and currencies is geared toward investors in or nearing retirement who are looking to preserve and protect wealth. 

Like a Rolling Stone

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Japan’s stock market is up 9.3% this year (chart 1). But in US dollar terms it’s up only 0.6% (chart 2). As you can see, attempts at currency debasement are not a road to prosperity. Even with extraordinarily loose monetary policy for decades, Japan has not been able to devalue its currency compared to the dollar to boost its flagging economy with cheap exports (chart 3). It’s a quick fix to an economy with structural problems that will eventually be reflected in the stock market (chart 4). It’s a recipe for an economy that’s like a rolling stone—with no direction home (chart … [Read more...]

Insanity: The $1 Trillion Platinum Coin

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If you haven’t heard of the latest ploy to monetize America’s debt, read onward. In the last few weeks an obscure idea has come on with a vengeance. Supported by left-wing politicians, economists, bloggers and even some people formerly considered rational, the idea of the $1 trillion coin as an answer to America’s debt problems is spreading like wildfire. If you’re not already wary at the mere mention of a coin valued at $1 trillion, it’s a sign of the sorry state of the country. Birth of a Bad Idea According to WIRED magazine, the idea was first broached in 2010 in what the … [Read more...]

Gold Today, Gold Tomorrow

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In the last five years the price of an ounce of gold has increased 93%. Easy monetary policies and the downgrade of many sovereign debt ratings, including that of the U.S., have contributed to the high demand for the safe-haven precious metal. Since May 16, in the lead up to September’s Federal Reserve announcement of QE infinity, the market pushed the price of gold up by 12.6%. The price of the yellow metal has been consolidating but could break out at any moment. Gold should be a component of all investment portfolios today as a hedge against profligate fiscal and monetary policy because … [Read more...]

Time to Buy Gold?

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It’s the question most frequently asked by customers over the last week: Is now a good time to buy gold? My answer is that I like gold. Who doesn’t? But I don’t buy it hoping it goes up. I buy it and hope it goes down, because most of the stuff I own in my portfolio goes up when gold goes down, as should be the case in yours. But if you have invested in gold over the last 10 years, you’ve beaten the pants off the Dow Jones Industrial Average total return. Look at the chart below for a comparison. The chart shows you what $100 invested in the Dow or gold on December 31, 1999, would be worth … [Read more...]

Stimulus Speculation Goes Global

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We have commented thoroughly on the stimulus programs being signaled or implemented in the United States and Europe, but market speculation has broadened its horizons. Now anticipation of stimulus efforts from developing countries is moving prices. Speculators saw the weak foreign trade data announced Monday morning by China as cause for optimism when it comes to the prospect of future fiscal stimulus. China’s imports declined by 2.7% compared to the year before, and exports only grew at—what is for China—a very modest 2.7% over the year. The average annual growth for imports and exports … [Read more...]

India: BRIC Broken

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India, one of the much hyped BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) has seen its currency plunge in recent months. Over the last 12 months the Indian rupee has lost 20% of its value (chart 1) compared to the U.S. dollar. If you have been one of the unfortunate investors who have owned Indian stocks over the last year, you are down 23% (chart 2).   For much of the last decade the hucksters and promoters on Wall Street have pushed BRIC stocks as a growth story. But what your broker likely failed to mention during his pitch was the currency risk of investing in a … [Read more...]

Currencies in Crisis, Oil Spiking: Time to Buy?

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 have staged impressive rallies to begin 2012. As of this morning, the Dow was up more than 6% YTD. Improving economic data and a flood of global central bank liquidity have helped levitate stock prices. Volatility has also declined markedly in recent weeks and now sits at an eight month low. As stock prices have risen, economic data has improved, and volatility has dropped, investors have become more bullish. Our chart on the spread between the percentage of bulls and bears in the American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey is … [Read more...]

Coordinated Currency Devaluation: Time to Buy Gold

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Not to be outdone by Europe or the U.S., the Bank of Japan announced yesterday that it would print an additional 10 trillion yen ($128 billion) to expand the size of its asset-purchase program. The BOJ’s decision comes on the heels of the European Central Bank’s December decision to massively expand its balance sheet and the Bank of England’s decision to increase the size of its own money printing campaign. The yen tumbled vis a vis the U.S. dollar and the euro on the news. The BOJ’s decision is yet more evidence of coordinated global fiat currency devaluation by the world’s largest central … [Read more...]

Gold King as Currencies Debased

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Yesterday the Bank of England announced another round of quantitative easing, this time spending $79.1 billion on government bonds. On the chart below you can see the effects previous rounds of quantitative easing have had on the price of gold in U.S. dollars and pounds sterling. As monetary authorities in the United States and the United Kingdom have poured money on their economies, the price of gold in their currencies has skyrocketed. The continued debasement of fiat currencies has been a boon for gold investors, but a terrible strain on savers, diluting the value of their nest eggs. … [Read more...]