Ruble Crashing: Low Risk/High Risk Back in March the World Bank predicted two scenarios for Russia's GDP in 2014/2015 given different levels of risk stemming from Russia's annexation of Crimea. Russia's Central Bank has now predicted growth in 2015 markedly lower than even the low-growth scenario predicted by the World Bank earlier this year and predicted higher inflation. The central bank cut the growth forecast in its main outlook for 2015 to zero and pushed back its estimate for meeting an inflation target of 4 percent by one year from 2016, according to the revisions published … [Read more...]
Gold, Silver, and Currencies
Young Research & Publishing has been providing research and insights on precious metals and currency markets to institutional investors, corporate financial officers, business owners, and individual investors for over four decades. Richard C. Young started Young Research & Publishing in the 70s to publish the authoritative Young's World Money Forecast, a 50-page monthly investment report on the precious metals and currency markets. Today, our research on gold, silver, and currencies is geared toward investors in or nearing retirement who are looking to preserve and protect wealth.
Currency Wars Continue
The global central banks regularly deny that they are engaged in competitive currency devaluations, but actions speak louder than words. Last week the Bank of Japan ramped up their quantitative easing program by taking advantage of falling oil prices to further debase the yen. A falling yen raises the price of gasoline for Japanese consumers so there had been some backlash against the BOJ’s quantitative easing program. With oil prices falling, the BOJ saw an opportunity to further debase the yen without causing more voter discontent and they took it. The lower yen is a boon for Japanese … [Read more...]
Who’s Winning the Ugly Contest?
Over recent years, investing in the world’s largest currencies has been a game of picking the ugliest currency. The dollar, the euro, and the yen all have structural flaws. The question for investors has been which one is the ugliest. Last year, the yen won the ugly contest. This year it looks like we are going to crown a new winner. The euro has fallen by about 6% versus the dollar compared to a 1.1% drop for the yen. … [Read more...]
9% Yield for Warren
Growing up in the 80s when the dollar was "strong" we would head to Canada to go skiing. Now the reverse is happening. If you've been to Jay Peak in Vermont lately, which is right near the Canadian boarder, you'd swear you're in Canada. There's a lot to like about Canada. For starters its banking system didn't explode back in 2008, and their corporate tax rates aren't the highest in the free world like ours. So can you blame Warren Buffett for jumping in on the Burger King/Tim Horton's deal and the 9% yield? I can. Instead of complaining about how he pays more taxes than his secretary, … [Read more...]
Grateful for Cash
“You ask me where the four winds dwell In Franklin's tower there hangs a bell It can ring, turn night to day Ring like fire when you lose your way” --Franklin’s Tower, Grateful Dead Having a stash of cash outside of your portfolio has always made sense to me. You never know when the lights will go out. And that’s when you realize you need it. … [Read more...]
American Silver Eagle Coins
I recently purchased some American Silver Eagles through Blanchard and Company, Inc. If you’re interested here is their website. … [Read more...]
Silver Cheap Relative to Gold
I like having some gold and silver in portfolios. In terms of how many silver ounces it takes to buy one ounce of gold, the historical mean has been 50 ounces. Today it takes about 67 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. Silver may be the value play, but keep in mind that the chart tells us nothing about the short-term. It’s simply a nice historical snapshot. … [Read more...]
The Fool’s Gold
We’ve kept you up to date on the import restrictions on gold in India, and some of the ways Indians have been getting around those restrictions. But this one takes the cake. A man was admitted to surgery in New Delhi on April 9 with severe stomach pain and nausea. Guess what a surgeon found in the foolish man’s intestines? If you guessed 12 gold bars slightly larger than a troy ounce each, you guessed right. The lengths the Indians will go to in order to get gold across the border appear to be endless. Expect tunnels under the borders (if they don’t already exist) like those that have … [Read more...]
Gold Signals Trouble
Gold prices signal distrust with Putin and the future of Ukraine. Reuters reports: Gold rose 1 percent on Tuesday on a sharply lower dollar and as renewed tensions between the United States and Russia over Ukraine burnished bullion's safe-haven appeal. The metal was also underpinned by official-sector buying after Iraq's central bank said it might buy more gold in the next few months, having bought 60 tonnes over the past two. Bullion prices have sharply pulled back from a six-month high near $1,400 an ounce in mid-March as geopolitical tensions eased after Russia officials said the … [Read more...]
Bitcoin the Right Idea
The only way the U.S. government is going to pay down its mountain of debt is to inflate away the U.S. dollar. With that in mind, it’s thievery that the IRS has ruled that Bitcoin transactions, with net gains, will be taxed as capital gains. The government hates any alternative to the smoke and mirrors trick they play with the U.S. dollar. A replacement currency would hinder the government’s profligate spending and prevent them from sticking it to their creditors. A replacement currency is exactly what we need. Here’s more on the cap gains issue from the Tax Foundation: The price of the … [Read more...]
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