As a group, the retail investing public tends to arrive to the party late and stays too long. This chart comes courtesy of the WSJ Daily Shot and TD Ameritrade. According to TD Ameritrade, retail investors are more bullish than they have been in years. Elevated levels of investor sentiment tend to be most useful as a contrary indicator. The higher investor sentiment, the lower you should set your return expectations and the more you should demand those returns in the form of dividend payments. Share prices tend to fluctuate wildly as sentiment shifts, dividend payments do not. … [Read more...]
Lower Portfolio Risk to Boost Return
UPDATE: The words I wrote in this post from August 27, 2010 are as sound today as they were back then. The basic principles of good investing just never change. This is how we operate at Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. Do you know the difference between total return and investor return? Most investors are familiar with the concept of total return. The total return of a fund is simply the sum of the capital and income return of a fund over a certain holding period. The total return of a fund of course assumes a buy-and-hold strategy. Investor return (a Morningstar term) is a measure of … [Read more...]
Bank Dividends Soar
After U.S. banks passed the Fed’s latest stress tests with flying colors, bank dividends are soaring. Some of our highly favored banks just increased their dividends as much as 35% in addition to announcing increased buybacks. The FT reports on bank dividends. Now, rather than accumulating capital to build buffers against losses, the likes of Morgan Stanley and Bank of America can start handing it back. Across the 34 banks which took this year’s exam, payouts to shareholders will come close to 100 per cent of projected profits over the next year, according to senior Fed officials, up from … [Read more...]
Bezos’ Law: Prices will be Lower, But what about for Income Investors?
Great ideas don’t always translate into great investments. Remember Amazon almost going out of business in the dot com bust? When I think of Jeff Bezos I think of Steve Jobs. Both are, and were one of a kind. That doesn’t mean I’d buy their stocks. There’s plenty of ways to benefit from Bezos’ Law, which I define as whatever business Bezos decides to get into, “prices will be lower.” But, and here’s the catch, to make Bezos’ Law into the law of the land, Mr. Bezos needs LOTS of capital and GREAT people working for him. The ONLY way to make that work is with a high stock price to reward both … [Read more...]
Warren Buffett and Apple Paying a Dividend Would Be Nice
“It’s our job, though, to over time deliver significant growth, bumpy or not. After all, as stewards of your capital, Berkshire directors have opted to retain all earnings,” writes Warren Buffett in his 2016 Annual Report Chairman’s letter. In other words, Berkshire doesn’t pay a dividend. It retains all earnings to invest in its companies or to acquire new ones. If you’re a Berkshire shareholder and need retirement income you need to rely on Berkshire’s capital gains to sell shares. I don’t like that and it's not how Mr. Buffett operates. He loves cash and invests it wisely (most of the … [Read more...]
Calculating Shareholder Yield
To calculate the shareholder yield, pick up the annual report for a company you are interested in (preferably a non-financial company), and turn to the Statement of Cash Flows. In the Statement of Cash Flows, move down to the section labeled - Cash Flows from Financing Activities. For most companies, this is the last section of the Cash Flow Statement. To calculate shareholder yield, you have to determine the total amount of dividends that were paid to shareholders, the net amount of stock that was repurchased, and the net amount of debt that was repaid. Before you get started, remember you … [Read more...]
Is This the Calm Before the Storm?
The average daily movement in stocks during the first quarter of 2017 was the lowest since 1965. What did stocks do back in 1965? Basically nothing for the next 16 years or, an entire retirement for many. That’s why you need to get paid to be in this market in the form of dividends. But how do you know which companies have the safest, most sacred dividends, and which companies look out for you, the investor? Allow me to help. My email address is ejsmith@youngresearch.com … [Read more...]
This is a $100 billion Dividend Opportunity
If there is one sector of the stock market that has been damaged most by burdensome regulation and ultra-loose monetary policy over the last decade it is the Financial sector. Here the WSJ outlines the potential for the six biggest U.S. banks to return more than $100 billion to investors if Trump succeeds in a push to loosen bank regulation. The six biggest U.S. banks could potentially return more than $100 billion in capital to investors over time through dividends and share buybacks if the Trump administration succeeds in a push to loosen bank regulation. President Donald Trump on Friday … [Read more...]
This is How to Collect Special Dividends
Bank shares used to be a reliable source of dividends, but following the global financial crisis, the Fed and other bank regulators put the brakes on the payout ratio of America’s biggest banks. Today, the payout ratio on America’s big banks has a soft limit at 30%. To get around the 30% payout limit of regulators, the big banks are now considering paying special dividends. The Wall Street Journal has the story. Two of the nation’s most prominent bankers on Tuesday hinted at higher dividends in the future, especially if bank stocks keep rising. This is mostly welcome news for investors, … [Read more...]
Vanguard’s Investment Advice in a Low Yield World
Vanguard 's head of investment strategy and global chief economist Joseph Davis gives some advice to investors in a low yield world, don't be a hero. Bloomberg writes: “The next five years are going to be more challenging than the previous five years in investing,” said Joseph Davis, head of investment strategy and global chief economist at Malvern, Pennsylvania-based Vanguard, which oversees $3.8 trillion. “Be cautious of trying to be heroic in this environment.” Vanguard's global head of fixed income, Gregory Davis, echoes his colleague's sentiments. Given the uncertainty still facing the … [Read more...]
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