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Investment Research Since 1978

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Want to Buy A Condo in China? Are You Kidding?

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Everyone wants to be a contrarian investor these days. Look no further than your friend’s kid day-trading his life away. Maybe to profitability. But it’s a long way to the finish line. Tired of hearing the war stories? Then let’s run a test. Ask Mr. Smarty Pants about buying a condo in China. That’s what I thought, “Are you kidding?” will be the typical response. But isn’t yesterday’s drop in stocks a unique buying opportunity? You know, everyone wants to buy the dips, but knowing it’s a dip and not a crater is about as reliable as a fortune cookie prediction. We’ll know what this one is … [Read more...]

You Won’t Believe How Tame the Dot Com Bubble Looks

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Check out the number of S&P 500 stocks trading at more than ten times their sales. I’m not talking about ten times earnings. This is sales. You know, the price you pay for your house, your groceries, your heating bill—not the profit the company selling to you hopes to make. Imagine if the world you and I live in was priced this way? It would make inflation look like a drop in the bucket. Well, that’s how these companies that index funds are buying hand-over-fist are priced. Look at the number of S&P 500 stocks trading for more than ten times their annual sales on the chart below. … [Read more...]

Corporate Landlords Get a Boost from Rent Inflation and Return to Cities

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Big corporate landlords are reaping the benefits of soaring rental price inflation and a migration back to cities by young workers. Will Parker explains in The Wall Street Journal: Despite a yearlong national eviction ban and continuing pandemic, it has rarely been a better time to be a big apartment-building landlord. National asking rents rose 10.3% in August, measured on an annual basis, according to Real Page, a rental-management software company, which analyzed more than 13 million professionally managed apartments. That marked the first double-digit increase in the more than 20 years … [Read more...]

What It Takes to Be like Tom Brady

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You may have noticed that Tom Brady threw for five touchdowns yesterday. Ho-hum. Just another day at the office. Why can’t the Patriots get good players like Brady? Actually, New England fans are pretty excited about rookie QB Mac Jones, a product of Nick Saban’s Alabama. Heading into this season here’s what Saban and Patriots head coach Bill Belichick talked about regarding drafting Jones. What did Nick Saban, Bill Belichick discuss about Mac Jones ahead of NFL Draft? Nick Saban and Bill Belichick are obviously very close, as Saban is perhaps Belichick's closest friend in the … [Read more...]

Breaking News: October RAGE Gauge and Market Corrections

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OK, a major Wall Street firm came out recently and predicted a fifteen percent correction in the market. What should you do? Well, as Your Survival Guy, I continue to stick with my investing plan regardless of what Wall Street predicts. As you know, predictions are cheap. Why? Because more often than not, these predictions are reversed when their crystal balls turn out to be not so crystal clear. So what’s the point? The point of the predictions is to instill fear. Nothing gets the phone ringing like the prediction of a market correction, especially one of this magnitude. Ring, ring, ring … [Read more...]

These are the Seeds of Hyperinflation

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Jerome Powell’s term as Federal Reserve Chair ends in January and President Biden must decide if he will reappoint Powell or pick somebody else. Populists on the left want Powell replaced. In the eyes of many liberal economists, Powell has done well. He has printed trillions, crossed a red-line the Fed in its over 100 years history never crossed by purchasing high-yield and corporate bonds, ignored rising inflation, and nodded to disparities in racial unemployment and climate change. What more could a Keynesian ask for? Apparently, Powell’s approach isn’t interventionist enough. The Fed … [Read more...]

Shortages Plague Biden Economy: “NOW THE NORM”

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You probably never imagined an America where shortages are "now the norm." But that's exactly how the Biden-economy is being described by Reuters. Howard Schneider and Timothy Aeppel report for Reuters: Shortages of metals, plastics, wood and even liquor bottles are now the norm. The upshot is a world where buyers must wait for delivery of items that were once plentiful, if they can get them at all. [Lauren] Rash [owner of Diamond Brand tent manufacturer] has piles of tents she can’t ship because she can’t get the right aluminum tubing for their frames, for instance, while others lack the … [Read more...]

Gold’s True Story

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Back in 1971, I had just started in the institutional research and trading business on Federal St. in Boston. Our firm traded and researched gold shares. I would in fact shortly be on the way to London to begin research on a lengthy gold study. This presentation by Claudio Grass published on LewRockwell.com is pretty much as I remember events, and is a great summary of the facts and events of that time. He writes (abridged): This year marked the 50th anniversary of President Nixon’s decision to unilaterally close the “gold window”. The impact of this move can hardly be overstated. It … [Read more...]

WHAT IS CHINA HIDING? Blogger Crackdown Obscures Market Picture

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The Chinese Communist government has begun a crackdown, arresting market influencers and scrubbing the internet of negative news about the country's markets. The Financial Times reports: China has launched a crackdown on financial blogs and social media, a move that risks exacerbating the difficulty of obtaining reliable data about the world’s second-biggest economy. The restrictions were implemented as fissures widened in the top echelons of Wall Street over whether investing in China was a smart bet. A snowballing policy overhaul has caught seasoned China investors off guard, spooked … [Read more...]

I Can’t Believe I’m Agreeing with George Soros, Here’s Why: Part II

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You know I'm no fan of George Soros, (especially since he gave $1 million to reelect Gavin Newsom) but when it comes to BlackRock and their meddling in China, he has a point. In a recent op-ed, Soros points out the hypocrisy in BlackRock's promotion of ESG funds here in the United States, and its foray into Chinese investing. He wrote: BlackRock takes its responsibilities for its clients’ money seriously and is a leader in the environmental, social and governance movement. But it appears to misunderstand President Xi Jinping’s China. The firm seems to have taken the statements of Mr. … [Read more...]