December 4, 2009 I have in front of me a most depressing chart. It shows the value of adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) resets. The chart runs from 2006 to 2012 and has two peaks-almost like the back of a camel. The first peak was in early 2008. The second peak is in 2011. Guess where we are today in the ARM-reset schedule? That’s right, smack in the middle of the two peaks. The low point for ARM resets was 2009. Starting in the spring of next year, ARM resets will ramp up. The first batch of resets in 2008, which of course triggered the credit crisis, were dominated by subprime loans. The … [Read more...]
Your Retirement Future Today and Tomorrow
Have you looked at interest rates lately? 3-month T-Bills are at 0.20%, 3-month CDs 0.38%, money markets 1.29%, 5 year CDs 2.62% and 10-year Treasury bonds are at 3.68%. Compare this to the near peak of the tech bubble ten years ago when the 10-year Treasury was at 6.02%. $1 million in a 10-year Treasury Note paid $60,000 annually. Today it pays $37,000 or 40% less. In retirement your ability to understand income and values are paramount to your investment success. Thinking in terms of 10 year periods allows your portfolio time to breath. And in terms of values, think about each asset class … [Read more...]
A Saucer-Like Bottom in Housing
June 16, 2009 As an inference reading based futurist, my goal is to target unfolding trends and the catalysts to effect change. Areas of interest include terrorism, politics, currencies, government, world financial markets, and economies. Most immediately, I think the 17% jump in May housing construction in concert with May’s increase in building permits augers well for a saucer-like bottom in housing. Home builders were definitely less confident in June than they were in the spring. Mortgage rates have been rising and there remains a nasty overhang of unsold homes. As such, the U.S. has now … [Read more...]
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