The S&P Case-Shiller home price indices were released this morning. On a non–seasonally adjusted basis, home prices rose for a second consecutive month in May, but are still down 4.5% over the last 12 months. After adjusting for seasonality, home prices are down slightly in May. The Case-Shiller 20-city composite has now fallen in 11 of the last 12 months. To get a better look at the breadth of home prices we’ve set up one-month and six-month diffusion indices of the Case-Shiller 20-city composite. Our diffusion indices measure the percentage of cities in the index showing a gain in … [Read more...]
Home Prices Back at Recession Lows
The February Case-Shiller home price indices were released today. The 20-city composite fell 1.1% for the month and is down 3.3% over the last twelve months. Home prices are now back at their April 2009 lows. The average home price is no higher than it was in 2003—that’s 8 years without a gain in most Americans’ largest investment. In inflation adjusted terms, home prices are no higher than they were in 2000. Since the Case-Shiller 20-city composite peaked in July of 2006, the worst performing markets are Last Vegas (-57%), Phoenix (-54%), Miami (-50%), and Tampa (-45%). Those markets that … [Read more...]
Still No Recovery in Housing
March data for housing starts, building permits, and existing home sales came out this week. All three economic indicators continue to point to a housing market that has yet to enter a sustained recovery. New housing starts and building permits both ticked up in March, but failed to recover the ground given up in February. Existing home sales also ticked up in March, but remain subdued. Total existing home inventory at the end of March rose to 3.55 million homes—an 8.4 month supply at current sales rates. The median price of a single family was $160,500 in March—down 5.3% from March of last … [Read more...]
Home Prices Slide in December
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for December were released this morning. Home prices continued their decline in December, falling .4%. In the fourth quarter, home prices fell 1.9% and for the 12-month period ending in December, home prices declined 2.4%. After two home buyer tax credits, multiple foreclosure modification programs, and trillions in support from the Fed, it appears that we have only managed to delay the ultimate bottom in home prices. Home prices are now much closer to a bottom than to the top, but that doesn’t offer much comfort to the homeowners in Las Vegas, … [Read more...]
Wilmington Trust “Take-under”
The $10 billion, Delaware-based Wilmington Trust was acquired this week in a “take-under” by M&T bank. The take-under was announced the same day that Wilmington reported a massive unexpected loss due to souring construction loans. The regional banking sector continues to struggle with loan losses. … [Read more...]
Bernanke’s Biggest Fear
The Fed created an uproar on Wall Street this week by changing the language in its post-meeting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement. The FOMC is, of course, the committee that sets monetary policy at the Federal Reserve. The new language that excited investors was the following: Measures of underlying inflation are currently at levels somewhat below those the Committee judges most consistent, over the longer run, with its mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation … [Read more...]
Don’t Miss This Opportunity
Long-term interest rates are at their lowest level in over four decades. Today, the Treasury can borrow money for 30 years at an interest rate of less than 4%. Adjusted for trend inflation, Uncle Sam is looking at a rate below 1%. Long rates of less than 4% are even more surprising given the sorry state of public finances and the vast supply of high-powered money sitting on bank balance sheets. The prospect of an oversupply of treasury issuance or rising inflation could send interest rates soaring. Long bonds would get crushed in such a scenario. Today’s ultralow long bond rates are a grave … [Read more...]
A Risk Worth Taking
In today’s environment of low interest rates, there are few places to turn to add yield to your portfolio. Sure, you can tie up your money in 30-year Treasury bonds to lock in a 3.70% yield, but you will take it in the neck when interest rates rise. A 1% increase in interest rates will result in a devastating 20% price decline in 30-year coupon bonds. Not exactly the type of risk most fixed-income investors are looking to take. A better strategy for adding yield to your portfolio is to take prepayment risk on mortgage-backed securities (MBS). I am not talking about the toxic private label … [Read more...]
Existing Home Sales Plummet
Existing home sales plummeted 27% in July to a new 15-year low. Existing home sales have now entered double-dip territory. At the current rate of sales, there is a surplus of more than 12 months of existing home supply—a 28 year high. … [Read more...]
Global House Price Imbalance
According to The Economist, there are still six global real estate markets that are more than 30% overvalued. Australia shows the largest overvaluation at 61.1%, followed closely by Hong Kong and Spain. What happens when these market values return to fair value? Frightening. … [Read more...]