Did you notice that stocks rallied strongly yesterday? The S&P 500 was up 1.67%. Do you know why the market was up? It may have been the strong manufacturing data reported by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM). The ISM numbers beat expectations. But stocks may have risen for another reason. Yesterday was the first trading day of the month. Since August 1 of last year, the first trading day of the month has accounted for a disproportionate share of stock-market gains. In the 128 trading days between July 31, 2010, and February 1, 2011, the S&P 500 gained 206 points. Of those … [Read more...]
A Caution Signal
Young Research’s Moving the Goods Index is looking toppy relative to the S&P 500. Our Moving the Goods Index is a market-cap weighted index of non-airline transportation companies. The relative performance of transportation stocks can signal economic strength or weakness. The recent stalling in the relative performance of the Moving the Goods Index warrants close attention. A break below the trend-line in my chart may signal that economic momentum is slowing. An unexpected slowdown in growth won’t sit well with stock market bulls. … [Read more...]
Debunking the China Story
Invest in China, you are told. China’s economy is booming. GDP growth is among the fastest in the world. Since China is growing faster than the rest of the world, it must follow that Chinese stocks are a good buy. That’s the pitch the pundits and promoters continue to make, but is it true? Just this week China reported GDP numbers for 2010. Yes, somehow China, a country with a per capita income that is a fraction of U.S. per capita income manages to report GDP figures before us. Makes one wonder, but that’s a topic for another day. China’s real GDP growth came in at 10.3%—exceeding … [Read more...]
Happy New Year!
With only one trading day to go in December, the S&P 500 is up 6.55% for the month. If stocks hold onto their gains it will be the best December for the stock market in almost two decades. And since Ben B. first floated the idea of printing a few billion more dollars in August, stocks have gained more than 20%. He must be delighted. Investors are buying stocks indiscriminately—the riskier the better. Investor sentiment is at multi-year highs. Brokerage analysts are bullish, investment managers are bullish, and individual investors are bullish. The mantra on the street is “don’t fight … [Read more...]
Stock Market Bulls on Shaky Ground
The chorus of bullish stock-market pundits on CNBC has become deafening in recent months. The justification for buying stocks that I hear most often from this crowd is that stocks are cheap because bond yields are low. Many bulls will tell you that you should dump your bonds in favor of stocks because stock yields are higher than bond yields. This sounds like a compelling argument in favor of stocks. And based on the multiyear highs of recent investor-sentiment polls, many individual investors agree. After being conditioned by inflated stock prices for two decades, loads of investors … [Read more...]
Gold is at $1,400
Don't tell me there is no inflation, the price of gold has topped $1,400/ounce. The Dow Jones Industrials are up year-to-date and over the past three years. But even so, Gold has beaten the DJIA Total Return (i.e. dividends included) handily as shown in my two charts. Make sure you are not caught off guard here. Your exposure to stocks must be well compensated by owning high yielding dividend payers. … [Read more...]
Wilmington Trust “Take-under”
The $10 billion, Delaware-based Wilmington Trust was acquired this week in a “take-under” by M&T bank. The take-under was announced the same day that Wilmington reported a massive unexpected loss due to souring construction loans. The regional banking sector continues to struggle with loan losses. … [Read more...]
The Phony Stock Market Rally
The S&P 500 has been on a tear since the Fed first started floating the idea of quantitative easing 2.0. Since August 31, the S&P is up more than 11%. The gains are of course nice to see, but the rally is a phony. Stock prices are not rising on improving fundamentals or cheap valuations. Stocks are rising simply because investors are anticipating that the Fed will print more money. For proof that the rally is a phony take a look at the performance of the S&P 500 in terms of a hard currency such as the Swiss Franc. My chart shows that in Swiss franc terms, the S&P 500 still … [Read more...]
Are You Bullish?
The sentiment survey done by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) shows that individual investors are bullish on stocks. The AAII’s weekly investor sentiment survey asks members if they are bullish, bearish, or neutral on the stock market for the next six months. Last week, 47.1% of respondents were bullish, and only 26.8% were bearish. That’s a spread of 20 percentage points, which is high based on recent history. As you can imagine, the weekly investor sentiment survey can fluctuate quite a bit from week to week, so it is useful to look at a moving average. I smooth the … [Read more...]
They’ll Wonder How You Live So Well
The businesses of the top 10 companies in the Vanguard Dividend Achievers fund could easily be part of your Saturday morning errands, especially if the kids and family are visiting. You could start the morning by leaving the house with a can of Diet Pepsi, stop by a Chevron station to fill up the tank, then swing into Walmart for some baby supplies like Pampers and Johnson’s Baby Shampoo for the little ones and Ibuprofen for yourself just in case you use the self-checkout lane. Hop back in the car, zip over to ExxonMobil for a car wash, scoot across the street for a Coke and a Big Mac, and … [Read more...]
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