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The Worst Chinese Economy in 30 Years

October 18, 2019 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

By Looper @ Shutterstock.com

Economic growth has slowed down in China, with the country record only a 6% increase in GDP last quarter. That would be magnificent growth in a developed nation, but for China, that’s the slowest growth in 30 years. The FT reports:

China’s economy grew at 6 per cent in the third quarter of 2019 compared with a year earlier, its slowest pace in about 30 years, delivering another blow to global growth and underlining many of the challenges facing President Xi Jinping.

The country’s trade war with the US, slowing income growth and cooling manufacturing investment took a toll on the world’s second-largest economy between July and September, according to the figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Friday.

The gross domestic product data came in below analysts’ expectations of 6.1 per cent and revealed that China’s growth was running at a level comparable with the late 1980s. However, the overall size of the economy is now far larger and, by many accounts, cannot continue expanding at double-digit rates as it did until this decade.

“I think 6 per cent is a stress test to the market,” said Zhou Hao, a senior economist at Commerzbank. “On the one hand, China seems to be willing to accept somewhat lower growth and is sending a signal that 6 per cent is not an untouchable bottom line.”

On the other hand, Mr Zhou said, the market is growing wary of slowing growth and policymakers’ reluctance to use stronger stimulus measures.

Following the release of the GDP figures, the CSI 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks was down 1.3 per cent. The renminbi was little changed.

Read more here.

Wang: Weak manufacturing driving China’s economic slowdown

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Jeremy Jones, CFA
Jeremy Jones, CFA, CFP® is the Director of Research at Young Research & Publishing Inc., and the Chief Investment Officer at Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. was ranked #5 in CNBC's 2021 Financial Advisor Top 100. Jeremy is also a contributing editor of youngresearch.com.
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