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Morgan Stanley Calls an “Earnings Recession”

February 12, 2019 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

By marekuliasz @ Shutterstock.com

Morgan Stanley’s chief US equity strategist, Michael Wilson, has predicted what’s known as an “earnings recession,” for 2019. The FT reports:

A string of disappointing forecasts from S&P 500 companies has led one of Wall Street’s leading market strategists to warn of a potential drop in earnings this year.

Michael Wilson, chief US equity strategist for Morgan Stanley, slashed his base-case estimate for 2019 earnings per share growth to 1 per cent, down from 4.3 per cent. By contrast, Wall Street’s consensus estimate calls for earnings to grow 5 per cent to $170 a share, according to FactSet.

“When we made our call for a greater than 50% chance of an earnings recession this year, we thought it might take a bit longer for the evidence to build. On the back of a large downward revisions cycle during 4Q earnings season, it’s becoming more clear,” Morgan Stanley analysts led by Mr Wilson wrote on Monday in a note titled Earnings Recession is Here.

An earnings recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines.

Read more here.

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Jeremy Jones, CFA
Jeremy Jones, CFA, CFP® is the Director of Research at Young Research & Publishing Inc., and the Chief Investment Officer at Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. was ranked #10 in CNBC's 2019 Financial Advisor Top 100. Jeremy is also a contributing editor of youngresearch.com.
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