The Latest American Export: Inflation By Ronlad McKinnon, The Wall Street Journal "Now we have what one might call the Bernanke shock. The Fed has set U.S. short-term interest rates at essentially zero since September 2008, followed in 2010 by quantitative easing to drive down long-term rates. Predictably, primary commodity prices in 2009-10 surged. In 2010 alone, all items in the Economist's dollar commodity price index rose 33.5%, while the industrial raw materials component soared a remarkable 37.4.%" "First, sharp general price increases in auction-market goods such as primary … [Read more...]
Archives for January 2011
Know Your Limits
Charles Plosser, the President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank gave a speech in Chile over the weekend titled The Scope and Responsibilities of Monetary Policy. Mr. Plosser is one of the few Federal Reserve Board members that seems to understand or at least acknowledge that monetary policy has limits. Below are some highlights from the Speech. The emphasis is mine. You can read the entire speech here. …I would like to begin with a quote that some of you may recognize. “...we are in danger of assigning to monetary policy a larger role than it can perform, in danger of asking it to … [Read more...]
You are paying 2 and 20 for what?
The typical fee structure for a hedge fund is a 2% management fee and 20% of the profits. After reading this article in the Wall Street Journal, one gets the impression that some hedge fund investors are getting bilked. Hedge Funds’ Pack Behavior Magnifies Swings in Market - WSJ By Jenny Strasburg And Susan Pulliam Hedge funds are crowding into more of the same trades these days, amplifying market swings during crises and unnerving investors. Such trading has stoked market jitters in recent months and helped to diminish the impact of corporate fundamentals on stock-market movements. Droves … [Read more...]
Up 5,000% in 10 Years
Do you dream of buying shares of the next Microsoft before they take off? How about the next Apple? Apple shares are up 4,200% over the last decade. Even better than Apple, shares of priceline.com are up almost 5,000% over the last 10 years. These are life-changing returns. A modest $20,000 investment in priceline.com 10 years ago would be worth more than $1 million today. If only you had the foresight to identify the last decade’s winners ahead of time, you could be 10, 20, or 30 times richer than you are today. Sound like the beginnings of a pitch you’ve heard before? My … [Read more...]
Accelerating Inflation
The December Producer Price Index (PPI) was released today. Producer inflation jumped 1.1% in December. Over the last two years, producer prices have increased at a 4.33% annual rate. Over the last six months, producer price inflation is running at a 6.9% annual rate. Producer inflation is accelerating, yet the Federal Reserve is consumed by the risk of deflation. It’s a head scratcher, is it not? … [Read more...]
5 Reasons to Still Like Gold
5 Reasons to Still Like Gold By Dave Kansas, Smart Money Here are some excellent points for why gold belongs in your diversified portfolio. As an aside, the author's second point should say that President Obama complains about China's low currency, not high currency. "Precious metals have become hugely popular with investors over the last couple of years and nothing attracts passion like gold. Whether it’s Glenn Beck talking up the importance of owning the metal on his Fox show or the cash-for-gold shops popping up at retail centers like the Mall of America -- gold seems to be everywhere." … [Read more...]
In Illinois, a Giant Deficit Leads to Talk of a Giant Tax Increase
In Illinois, a Giant Deficit Leads to Talk of a Giant Tax Increase By Monica Davey, The New York Times "SPRINGFIELD, Ill. — With Illinois’s budget crisis reaching dizzying, desperate levels, lawmakers here over the weekend were seriously pondering something that would have been unimaginable even a few months ago: a 75 percent increase in the state’s income tax." "In a moment when states around the country are wrestling with withered revenues, Illinois faces a deficit of at least $13 billion; more than $6 billion in unpaid bills to social service agencies, schools and funeral homes; the most … [Read more...]
Redefining Success
The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the December 14 FOMC meeting this week. The FOMC’s meeting minutes provide an expanded discussion of the Fed’s views on the economy, financial markets, and future monetary policy. This is required reading for investment managers. The minutes from the December 14 meeting are particularly important because that was the first meeting since the Fed started its second round of money printing, aka Quantitative Easing 2.0 (QE 2). At the FOMC’s November 3 meeting, Bernanke & Co. decided to print an additional $600 billion to buy Treasury … [Read more...]
Retirement Isn’t What You Expect
You don’t want to face a retirement in which you are forced into lowering your living standards. Yet that is exactly what the majority of baby-boomer households are up against. They may not have a choice in how they live their retirement years, because they’re not prepared. Retirement isn’t as easy as everyone thinks it is. It’s emotionally difficult not having a steady paycheck and the peace of mind a paycheck can provide. You have an idea of how much your living expenses will be, but you don’t necessarily expect the dream vacation or car your spouse suddenly needs to have. And even if you … [Read more...]
Bondholders Are Rattled by Prepayment Covenants
Bondholders Are Rattled by Prepayment Covenants By Carrick Mollenkamp and Matt Wirz, The Wall Street Journal "Bond markets remain so frothy that corporate-bond buyers aren't worried they won't get paid; they are worried about getting paid too soon. High-yield, or "junk," bonds typically include a stipulation, known as call protection, that forces borrowers to pay steep "make whole" penalties if they buy back the debt early, compensating investors for the interest payments they will miss. But as inflows flooded high-yield funds in 2010, managers became less picky about the protections … [Read more...]