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Archives for April 2019

American Stocks Can’t Outrun the World Forever

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With profits racing ahead of economic growth in America, Mike Bird of The Wall Street Journal suggests replicating recent American stock market success will be difficult. He writes: The S&P 500 is back at a new record high, while stocks in most of the rest of the world are yet to return to 2018’s peaks. But the rampant outperformance of U.S. equities can’t last forever. Low interest rates and eye-watering valuations have been credited with driving the U.S. bull market, but financial conditions haven’t been so different elsewhere. The big reason why U.S. stocks have beaten those in … [Read more...]

Overcapacity in Shipping Industry Sinks Ship Orders to Lowest in 15 Years

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There's so much overcapacity in the shipping industry that companies are having a hard time making money. In response, the shippers aren't ordering new oil tankers or freight haulers. Costas Paris writes for The Wall Street Journal: Ship orders world-wide have shrunk to the lowest level in 15 years as vessel owners struggle with excess capacity that has kept freight rates well below break-even levels. There were 3,200 vessels of a combined 81 million gross tons ordered globally in the first quarter, the lowest figure since 2004, marine data provider Clarksons PLC said in a report released … [Read more...]

Your Survival Guy in Paris: Peking Duck

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When you land in Charles de Gaulle airport, taxiing to the gate can feel longer than the flight. It’s big. And if it’s not a long taxi, it means you might be closer to home than the gate. That was us on this trip. And unfortunately, before deplaning we had to wait until the wheelchairs were available. My daughter Izzy recently had ankle surgery from a cross country running injury, and much to her despair (“Dad it’s embarrassing”) we were on the wheelchair list. We were joined by all the other crips including an overweight gentleman crutching forward with a duty-free bag of smokes, … [Read more...]

Just Four Stocks Have Generated Half of the NASDAQ 100’s Gains in April

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So far in April, half of the gains generated by the Nasdaq 100 were produced by the stocks from just four companies, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Facebook. The equal weight version of the index has been in decline. That implies relative weakness in the overall index, masked by strength in a few very large companies. Vildana Hajric and Sarah Ponczek report for Bloomberg: The Nasdaq 100 is on a tear, hitting record after record. But the upward push is being driven by just a handful of familiar names, with four adding half its gains this month. Apple Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Microsoft Corp. and … [Read more...]

Want to Double Your Money in Investing? Read This First

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Over my five-decade career in investing I have placed high value on on-the-ground intelligence gathered from real people. That’s why Debbie and I have spent so much time travelling in America and abroad, meeting business owners and retirees, and talking to everyone from VIPs to bus boys. Each has a story to tell and information to provide. Along our way, Debbie and I have been to some of the world’s most interesting places. In November of 1995, I wrote to readers about our trip to the Biltmore Estate. Read my account here: The Largest Private Residence in America Biltmore Estate, … [Read more...]

Paris Update: Notre-Dame, Protests and Your Survival Guy

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Having just returned home from another incredible trip to Paris, I want to share some quick highlights from “Your Survival Guy’s” perspective. If you want to experience one of the handful of Palace Hotels in Paris, then you want to go to our favorite home away from home: Le Bristol. If you’ve watched Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris starring Owen Wilson, then you know the arrival scene at Le Bristol. Recently while the hotel showed the movie in the bar, Wilson happened to be in the lobby and popped in to check it out. Only in Paris. If you’re visiting Paris this spring, don’t … [Read more...]

Will Every Recession Now Demand Extraordinary Fed Intervention?

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After the Great Recession unleashed never before seen Federal Reserve powers, there seems to be an expectation setting into the mind of markets that not only will the Fed lower rates to meet any new recession, but that it will also deploy extraordinary intervention. At Bloomberg, Brian Chappatta has an idea for the next level of Fed intervention, buying muni bonds. He writes: Almost 10 years after the Great Recession ended, the growing threat of a new economic slowdown raises a troubling question: When the next recession strikes, what can the world’s central banks do? With interest rates low … [Read more...]

Is There Plenty of Oil?

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According to the White House, despite sanctions on Iranian oil, the market is well supplied. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, along with the U.S. have stepped in to fill the gaps left by the now-sanctioned Iranian crude. Reporting for Reuters, John Kemp writes that oil traders think differently: The decision to eliminate all remaining sanctions waivers for Iran’s oil buyers follows a round of top-level diplomatic contacts between the White House and leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Tougher sanctions are likely contingent on a U.S. understanding that Saudi Arabia and the … [Read more...]

How Many “Retirees” Will Keep Working?: Today’s Elderly Twice as Likely to Work than in 1985

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Americans aren't saving enough. That's not all their fault. The Fed has kept interest rates low, depriving savers of decent rates of return on their savings. And a decade of misguided monetary policy hasn't managed to get wages growing very much. So many Americans who would prefer to retire, cannot. They are being forced to work into old age, and today elderly Americans are twice as likely to be working as they were in 1985. Bloomberg's Suzanne Woolley reports: Just as single-income families began to vanish in the last century, many of America’s elderly are now forgoing retirement for the … [Read more...]

IBM Plans to Make Great American Mainframes Again

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IBM plans to shut down its mainframe manufacturing facility in Singapore and move the business to Poughkeepsie, New York. The Straits Times reports: Global tech giant IBM is shutting its $90 million technology park in Tampines, costing up to 600 jobs in Singapore, and moving production of its high-end computer systems to the United States. The move comes as analysts expect IBM to report weaker earnings, down around 3 per cent for its first quarter, after the close of trading in the US yesterday, in part due to an ageing mainframe product cycle. The US firm will move the manufacturing of … [Read more...]