After the Trump administration announced an end to Iranian sanction waivers, the country's Revolutionary Guard force threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic choke point at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. The EIA estimates that in 2016 around 18.5 million barrels of oil traveled through the Strait of Hormuz each day. Stopping up the strait would lead to a major economic shock. Reuters reports on the threat: Tehran is prepared for a U.S. decision to end waivers granted to buyers of Iranian crude, an Iranian oil ministry source said on Monday, as the Revolutionary Guards repeated … [Read more...]
Archives for April 2019
Happy Easter: Meet the Man behind the Sweet Parisian Macaron
Standing on the steps of the Madeleine church in the 8th arrondissement, looking down Rue Royale, you can see the Place de la Concorde. Where Rue Royale meets Rue du Faubourg Saint Honore, across the street from Gucci, you’ll see the mint green awnings of maison Ladurée, home to the macaron (pronounced mah-kuh-ron)—meringue like cookies, the color of Easter eggs, sandwiched with an emulsified filling. Groupe Holder is the private baking—not banking—conglomerate owned, founded and controlled by 77-year-old Francis Holder. The company is comprised of Ladurée’s 85 shops in 50 countries, the … [Read more...]
Do You Feel Good?
Around four years ago I was practicing French with Debbie before a trip to Paris. I wrote then: Je Me Sens Bien As you read this month’s strategy report, Debbie and I will be in Paris. Practicing her French yesterday, Debbie asked me if I knew the meaning of je me sens bien, with James Brown as a clue. Well, not knowing for certain, I guessed, “I feel good,” a great James Brown lyric. Debbie was astounded that I got the quiz, as was I, because I really had no idea. So what gives? The answer lies in association. The rhythm of the four words simply brought the James Brown lyric to mind, … [Read more...]
Is the Socialist Bent of the 2020 Presidential Race a Threat to Markets?
As the 2020 presidential primary election season heats up, some of the nearly 20 Democratic contenders are suggesting proposals that are more than a bit socialist in nature. One of the leading contenders, Sen. Bernie Sanders, has proposed Medicare for all. The proposal would displace the massive private insurance industry, and his suggestion led to market volatility. The proposal rocked markets, and sent share prices of healthcare stocks dropping. Sanders isn't the only candidate offering up such economy-shifting proposals. In his rhetoric however, Sanders is going after individual … [Read more...]
GNMA Update and My April Rage Gauge
If you didn’t lose your patience and held your bonds over the last year, then you know it was a perfect example for why you own them. Case in point, Vanguard GNMA ended the last 52-weeks up 4.46% and its recent 30-day SEC yield was 3.06%. The catalyst for much of the recent gains? The midterms and the Fed—socialists storming the castle, and pathetically lower rates. Whether you own treasuries, agencies and/or corporates, avoid the temptations of predictions or your gut. Because you just might end up being wrong. My April Rage Gauge has backed-off from last month, making it a perfect time to … [Read more...]
Can Turkey’s Lira Survive?
The Turkish central bank is employing short-term borrowing to bolster the lira. Investors and currency traders are uneasy with the actions. Laura Pitel and Adam Samson report for the FT: Turkey’s central bank has bolstered its foreign currency reserves with billions of dollars of short-term borrowed money, raising fears among analysts and investors that the country is overstating its ability to defend itself in a fresh lira crisis. Reported net foreign reserves held by the central bank stood at $28.1bn in early April — a sum that investors already believed was inadequate because of … [Read more...]
New Jersey Opens a New Front in the Fiduciary Fight
Over the last few years the battle over the fiduciary duty of financial advisors has been fought at the federal level, but now New Jersey, a state that is home to many financial firms, is opening a new front in the war. New Jersey's governor wants to force financial firms registered in New Jersey to adopt a fiduciary standard. I encourage all investors to find advisors held to a fiduciary standard, as it's the only way to ensure an advisor has the clients' best interests in mind. Other advisors held to the much lower 'suitability standard' could be more willing to fill their clients' … [Read more...]
Do You Want the Fed to Raise Prices?
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is poised to make raising American prices a priority for the central bank. The questions that must be asked is, do Americans want that? Despite low inflation, there doesn't seem to be a public outcry for raising the prices of consumer goods. With both unemployment and inflation low, the Fed would seem to have hit a sweet spot in achieving its dual mandate. Powell seems determined however, to raise inflation a few basis points, no matter what policy levers he must pull. Bloomberg's Rich Miller and Craig Torres write: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his … [Read more...]
Happy Tax Freedom Day!
It's April 16th, and yesterday Americans' income taxes were due to the IRS. Coincidentally, today is Tax Freedom Day, and until today, the average American has been working to pay off his taxes for 2019. According to the Tax Foundation, "Tax Freedom Day® is the day when the nation as a whole has earned enough money to pay its total tax bill for the year." The Tax Foundation breaks down exactly how much time Americans spent paying off the different types of taxes in 2019, writing "This year, Americans will work the longest to pay federal, state, and local individual income taxes (42 days). … [Read more...]
As Disney Moves to Consolidate Hulu, AT&T Prepares its Own Netlflix Competitor
After many delays and false starts, it seems as though the big media companies are finally prepared to offer Netflix some real competition. Disney now owns 60% of Hulu, and could soon own more. Hulu has purchased AT&T's 9.5% share (acquired when the telecom purchased Time Warner). Now Disney and Comcast, the only two large remaining owners of Hulu will have to negotiate on how much of the purchase each receives. Disney is preparing to use Hulu as the counterpart to its family streaming offering, Disney+. Hulu will host shows with more adult themes. Meanwhile, AT&T is preparing its own … [Read more...]