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Archives for June 2020

The Seeds of the Next Big Bust are Being Sowed

June 16, 2020 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

What are the consequences of repeated bailouts from the Fed and other policymakers? More risk-taking, more leverage, a less stable financial system, and the risk of a future systemic crisis of such a magnitude that even a printing press won’t be able to fix it. That’s for starters at least. “Lever up and lobby for a bailout” is how I’ve described this new paradigm in American capitalism. It was tongue in cheek to some extent, but it seems that the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CALPERS), America’s largest pension fund, is taking the idea to heart. The Chief Investment … [Read more...]

Close to One-Third of Investors Over 65 Moved to Cash

June 16, 2020 By E.J. Smith

Coronavirus Infects Stock Market: Part LVIII How are you doing this morning? Hopefully, you’re not too shell shocked. If you are, then you’re not alone. A study by Fidelity Investments finds that close to one-third of investors over the age of 65 sold their stocks during the coronavirus meltdown reports The WSJ. Like a broken record, money managers tsk, tsk, tsk the sellers saying “hold your stocks for the long-term.” Well, that’s fine and good if you’re in your thirties, but a bit more difficult when you’re over 65. A prospective client wants to consolidate her assets with us mainly … [Read more...]

COVID-19 Traffic Jams Are Killing Africa’s Truck-based Economy

June 16, 2020 By Young Research

Nicholas Bariyo reports that traffic jams caused by COVID-19 testing regimes for truckers have increased hauling times for truckers to four times their normal length. He writes: In East Africa, curbs on the movement of truckers could pummel some of the continent’s fastest-growing economies. Rail links across the region are few and often outdated, meaning that everything from gasoline to minerals, foods or building materials is transported by road. Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has called demands from citizens to close the country’s border to truck traffic suicidal. “We need that … [Read more...]

Your Retirement Life: Investing After Coronavirus

June 15, 2020 By E.J. Smith

Coronavirus Infects Stock Market: Part XXX Originally posted on April 20, 2020. Some thoughts as you second guess your retirement (or your spouse does for you). The late Richard Russell, in remembering the Great Depression: The most valuable asset you have is a J-O-B. (You know RR from Rich Man, Poor Man, an all-time favorite of mine.) Russell knew the pain when his father was jobless; losing confidence and self-worth; remembering a job does a lot more than just provide money. Our loudmouth governors will not be able to keep Americans indoors forever: Don’t Tread on Me. Make it … [Read more...]

A Harbinger of Things to come in other Emerging Markets?

June 15, 2020 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Is Lebanon's currency collapse a harbinger of things to come in other emerging markets? Chloe Cornish reports for the FT: A dramatic collapse in the value of the local currency sparked protests across Lebanon on Thursday night, as the government and central bank struggled to stem the country’s worst economic crisis since its civil war. The Lebanese pound, which has officially been pegged at L£1,500 to the dollar for two decades, fell to L£6,000 to the dollar on the parallel market on Thursday. Local media reported prices as low as L£7,000 to the dollar in some places, amid panicked … [Read more...]

You Want the Limo, Not the Public Bus

June 12, 2020 By Dick Young

Your investing future does not have to be relegated to a public transportation type of experience. You have a choice. And you can go in first class comfort or, instead, take a seat in the back of the bus. Here’s what I mean. To start, don’t spring for yesterday’s investments – stock index funds or most equities centric funds. Don’t settle for government bonds that pay virtually nothing today, or for casino-like big S&P 500 stocks that pay no dividends but often sell for criminal market cap-to-sales ratios. By now you undoubtedly realize that robo-advisors, whatever they are, offer … [Read more...]

Your Retirement Life: What Will Her Life Be Like Now?

June 12, 2020 By E.J. Smith

It’s foggy this morning, but the light coming from my daughter’s bedroom is bright because she’s away on a trip, and her door is wide open. It’s heartbreaking walking down the stairs knowing this is what it will feel like when she leaves for college. Every step I feel the weight of: did I spend enough time with her, will she be ok on her own, is she happy, what will her life be like now? It’s heavy. That’s being a parent. Your kids grow up and leave you, then you have grandchildren, they visit, they leave, and it’s the same feeling all over again. And you say to yourself: Next time … [Read more...]

Investors Devour Bonds

June 12, 2020 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Joe Rennison and Eric Platt report for the Financial Times on investors' demand for bonds from blue-chip companies. They write: Bonds sold since March by blue-chip US companies including Northrop Grumman, Intel and Coca-Cola have surged in value, as investors scrambled to get hold of the unusually high coupons offered during the most intense phase of the pandemic. Intel’s $1bn bond maturing in 2060, launched just before the US Federal Reserve announced sweeping measures to support the corporate bond market, has soared to more than 144 cents on the dollar from its sale price of just over 98 … [Read more...]

Your Survival Guy Escapes into the City, Uh-Oh

June 11, 2020 By E.J. Smith

Coronavirus Infects Stock Market: Part LVII Heading into a city and putting your daughter on a plane are not things Your Survival Guy likes doing, nevermind in the middle of a crisis. But sometimes visiting a cousin in Naples, FL is what an eighteen-year-old needs to do for everyone involved. Becky and I couldn’t help but notice, about thirty miles south of the city, the flashing signs: “If You’re from Out of State We Urge You to Self-Quarantine for Fourteen Days,” which made us wonder: “who in their right mind is going to follow this BS?” Then we passed a car with its driver, all alone, … [Read more...]

The Hubris Indicator

June 11, 2020 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Those of you who have been active in the markets for more than a couple of months will get a chuckle out of this. When all of the newly minted stock market geniuses start boasting that Warren Buffet is washed up, it's not a bad idea to approach the markets with a little more caution. Shawn Langlois reports at MarketWatch: Did we just witness “an epic signal of a blow-off top” ... ? Yes, says Gary Evans of the Global Macro Monitor blog, who pointed to the recent action on Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy’s Twitter feed as the reason. On Monday, Portnoy slammed Berkshire … [Read more...]

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