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Archives for February 2021

Your Retirement Life: Meet Larry the Car Wash Guy

February 19, 2021 By E.J. Smith

This is one of my favorite stories about a guy following his passion and making a career out of it. If you haven’t checked out his videos on how to wash a car, then you’re in for a treat. Enjoy! CNBC tells the story of Larry Kosilla, a Wall Street trader who decided to give up the fast lane to instead pursue his dream of being around expensive cars all the time. Marguerite Ward reports: “You can’t fake enthusiasm,” Kosilla tells CNBC. “There’s not enough money in the world to fake enthusiasm.” He created a website Ammo NYC to sell detailing products online in 2011. From there, he … [Read more...]

Is Oil Headed Back to $100 per Barrel?

February 19, 2021 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

With all the focus on green and renewable energy, one might think that the oil and gas business is finished. It’s possible demand will peak within the next couple of decades, but don’t forget it is supply and demand that set the price. Every year without additional investment, the world's oil supply falls by millions of barrels a day. Oil demand collapsed in 2020, but so did investment which will limit supply in the near-to-medium-term. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are forecasting a surge in oil prices. The FT reports: The most bullish forecast has international crude prices staging a … [Read more...]

You’re Worried About Money, Not Just Losing It

February 18, 2021 By E.J. Smith

I had a conversation with a prospective client yesterday telling me he wants preservation of principal with growth. And on top of that, he told me what stocks he wanted to own. (You know the names, I won’t bore you.) “Because I don’t like to lose money,” he said. In my over 25-years working in the investment business, I have yet to meet someone who “likes” losing money. It’s not a “well he can afford to lose some money” thing either. Losing money is losing money. No one likes to be a loser. Period. On a separate note, I had a real nice conversation with another prospective client earlier … [Read more...]

Texas Needs More Coal, and More Nuclear

February 18, 2021 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

The winter weather hitting Texas this year has shown that the "transition" energy combination of renewables and gas has flaws. The Wall Street Journal writes: Texas has about 30,000 MW of wind capacity, but winds aren’t constant or predictable. Winds this past month have generated between about 600 and 22,500 MW. Regulators don’t count on wind to provide much more than 10% or so of the grid’s total capacity since they can’t command turbines to increase power like they can coal and gas plants. Wind turbines at times this month have generated more than half of the Texas power generation, … [Read more...]

America’s Growth Corridors as Written in 2013 by Joel Kotkin

February 17, 2021 By E.J. Smith

In 2013, in contrast to the majority of the establishment media, Joel Kotkin wrote that America's future economic growth would be driven by what he called "four growth corridors," including "the Great Plains, the Intermountain West, the Third Coast (spanning the Gulf states from Texas to Florida), and the Southeastern industrial belt." Kotkin told readers of The Wall Street Journal that these growth corridors tended to be "generally less dense, more affordable, and markedly more conservative and pro-business." He continued: Overall, these corridors account for 45% of the nation's land … [Read more...]

Number of Bubble Stocks Rivals Dotcom Period

February 17, 2021 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

This chart doesn’t require much explanation. What you are looking at is the number of stocks listed on U.S. exchanges with meaningful market values that are up more than 500% over the last year. Why 500% over a year? It is admittedly pretty arbitrary, but a nice round number that is so high it would be difficult to explain as something justified by improving fundamentals. The last time we saw anything close to this kind of mania was the dot-com bubble. Seasoned investors have the benefit of knowing how this type of mania ends. Stay cautious and prudent even if your neighbor’s … [Read more...]

You’re Witnessing Reckless Spending and the Destruction Of…

February 16, 2021 By E.J. Smith

You’re living in a crazy world where a lot of the frustration you and I feel is absolutely avoidable. Where’s leadership’s common sense? They’re making calls that impact your life in a way that seems separate from theirs. Why, for example, is the nation’s Capitol building surrounded by a moat-like steel fence and armored guards? From whom are they protecting themselves? You’re witnessing reckless spending and the destruction of the dollar. Is there any wonder today’s headlines read like an inflationary who’s who? “Lumber Prices Notch Records on Remodeling Boom, Stock Futures Gain, Natural Gas … [Read more...]

How a Proposed North Dakota Law Could Lead to a Wipeout in Apple Shares

February 16, 2021 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

At the end of 2018, Apple announced that it would end the disclosure of iPhone units sold.  The company said the number of units sold was no longer an important metric because the services business (app store, subscriptions, music, etc.) was the future. iPhone unit growth was of course disappointing at the time. In other words, Apple was saying, don’t look over here where iPhone unit sales growth is slumping, instead, look over there at our shiny new services business. Apple’s plan was to convince investors that because services revenue is more stable, it deserves a higher multiple which … [Read more...]

Jaguar to Sell Only Electric Vehicles

February 16, 2021 By Young Research

Jaguar has announced that it will transition to producing only electric vehicles. Nathan Bomey reports in USA Today The Jaguar luxury brand will transition to selling only electric vehicles in another step for the automotive industry away from gasoline. Jaguar Land Rover, a British-based manufacturer owned by Indian automaker Tata Motors, announced Monday that the brand will make the shift beginning in 2025. The company said it also expects 60% of Land Rover sales to be electric vehicles by 2030. The move comes amid gradual advancements in battery technology that are making electric … [Read more...]

Fidelity #1: GameStop and NEVER Selling You Out

February 12, 2021 By E.J. Smith

As you know, Robinhood offers online traders an easy way to invest in stocks like GameStop. But did you know it makes it’s money from PFOP or payment for order flow? What PFOP means is that Robinhood sells its own customer trading data to outsiders—those more than willing to pay for it. Why you might ask? Follow the money. A hedge fund might want to know what the order flow looks like on a specific stock and bet for or against it. It’s like sitting at the poker table and they see everyone’s hand. It’s basically a legal way (I guess) to show them the money. Don’t let that be you. It’s … [Read more...]

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