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Archives for January 2022

Your Survival Guy’s Thoughts on the Blizzard of ’22

January 31, 2022 By E.J. Smith

OK, that was interesting. For about 24-hours it felt like we were living inside a snow globe being shaken around by a four-year-old. If it was at a ski resort, the skiing would have been epic. I haven’t seen this much snow in Newport ever and the closest comparison for the region would be the blizzard of ’78 when I lived in Mattapoisett. Back then, at age six I had my picture taken by the local newspaper skiing down Ship Street. During the height of this storm, the wind was howlin’ and it was hard to imagine it ever clearing because storms like this one can make time stand still. And … [Read more...]

Is This the End of the M&A Supercycle?

January 31, 2022 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Mergers and acquisitions have been in a "supercycle" for years, regularly beating records for volume. Could 2022 be the year that all ends? James Fontanella-Khan reports in the Financial Times: It has been bonus season on Wall Street this month and for the ranks of bankers who work on mergers and acquisitions, it is about as good as it gets. A record boom in deal activity last year has translated to big gains for bankers. Investment banks have announced bonus increases ranging from 20 to 49 per cent on the back of record fees. That should make sellers of Hamptons property, fine wine and … [Read more...]

Caterpillar Has Trouble Meeting High Demand

January 31, 2022 By Young Research

Caterpillar would like to sell more machines to the customers filling its order book, but can't because of supply-chain challenges and a shortage of semiconductors. Austen Hufford reports in The Wall Street Journal: Strong construction activity in the U.S. drove demand for Caterpillar Inc., CAT -0.95% though the equipment maker said it faced higher costs and a bulging order backlog. Caterpillar said Friday that it continues to have trouble obtaining enough electronics, semiconductors and other parts to make hydraulic shovels and asphalt pavers. The company’s backlog for the quarter ended … [Read more...]

Your Survival Guy’s Stock Market CARNAGE Stress Test

January 28, 2022 By E.J. Smith

Look, it’s been a good run for stocks. It’s reflected in your net worth—if you can keep it. Because there comes a time when you need to ask: Do I NEED this STRESS? One of the hardest decisions for stock investors is not when to buy, but when to SELL. Here’s a back of a napkin stress test for you and your spouse: How will you feel if your stocks fall by 50%? Now sell stocks to the point where a 50% loss in stocks would be SURVIVABLE. That’s what my focus is for you: SURVIVABILITY. Because Your Survival Guy knows what you sound like when disasters like that happen. But lo and behold, after … [Read more...]

Down goes Frazier!

January 28, 2022 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Cathie Wood, manager of the ARK Innovation ETF and 2020’s heavyweight champ portfolio manager has just given up an over 200% return advantage to the S&P 500. From its peak in February of last year, the ARK Innovation ETF is down 57%. On a three year basis, the ARK ETF is now trailing the S&P 500. Just another reminder not to invest on the basis of past performance. … [Read more...]

You Invest, They Win: The Punishing Economics of Hedge Funds

January 28, 2022 By E.J. Smith

Recently, The Wall Street Journal's Juliet Chung reported the story of Gabe Plotkin and Melvin Capital Management's massive losses incurred in 2021. Here's one paragraph that drew Your Survival Guy's attention: Melvin charges investors an annual management fee of 2%, and takes a cut of up to 30% of all profits, among the highest incentive fees in the industry. That can be extremely lucrative in profitable years, but the economics tend to be punishing on the way down. Like most hedge funds, Melvin must first make back all of its losses before it can resume taking incentive fees from investors … [Read more...]

OIL’S SLICK: Producers Regain Their Footing After COVID Turbulence

January 28, 2022 By Young Research

Oil producers are regaining their footing after COVID-19 supply and demand disruptions produced wild swings in prices for their products. The Wall Street Journal's Christopher M. Matthews reports: Chevron Corp. CVX -4.64% had its most profitable year since 2014, reporting Friday that it earned $15.6 billion in net income in 2021, as commodity prices surged on the back of a global economic recovery. The U.S. oil giant’s annual earnings were a dramatic turnaround from 2020, when Chevron lost $5.5 billion after the global pandemic routed demand for oil and gas. It reported a fourth-quarter … [Read more...]

Bomb Cyclone to Hit New England and Other Observations

January 27, 2022 By E.J. Smith

Happy Thursday. Your Survival Guy and coastal New England are prepping for a “bomb cyclone” that could dump over a foot of snow on Saturday. Bring it on. I don’t mean to sound like a parent, but, when I was a kid, we didn’t plan four days ahead for a snowstorm. It would snow. We’d help clear the driveway, and then we’d play outside to the point of exhaustion. If we went inside for hot chocolate, and wanted to go back outside, we’d put our feet in sandwich bags and stuff them into our boots and go back outside. Not a big deal. Your Survival Guy’s boots on the ground experience on Monday: … [Read more...]

Has the Fake Meat Hype-Cycle Finally Ended?

January 27, 2022 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

For years consumers have been bombarded by stories about Impossible Burgers and Beyond Meat. These meat substitutes, they were told, would save the earth by decarbonizing the "meat" industry, and best of all, they're "just like real meat." Except, reality appears not to be living up to the hype. Emiko Terazono and Judith Evans report in the Financial Times: Bean patties and tofu burgers have been around for decades, but consumer interest in the new generation of plant-based meats, mimicking the taste, texture and smell of animal meat, surged around the flotation of US start-up Beyond Meat in … [Read more...]

You Won’t Believe How Much My Favorite Investing Book Costs

January 27, 2022 By Dick Young

An interesting article came across my desk late last year. It was from Abe Books, an online used book retailer that sources books from shops across the country. The article was a list of the most expensive books sold by Abe Books up to that point in 2021. There were many fine old books on the list, but one immediately caught my attention—a 1934 first edition of Graham and Dodd’s Security Analysis. The description of the book from Abe Books read: The Bible for stock market investors and the most important finance book of the 20th century. A 1934 first edition, first printing. Graham … [Read more...]

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