Jeffry Bartash of MarketWatch is reporting that the economy has slowed toward year’s end. He writes: The numbers: The U.S. economy expanded at a revised 4.9% annual pace in the third quarter, a surprising burst of growth that appears to have tapered off at year’s end. Growth of gross domestic product, the official scorecard for the economy, was reduced from a previously reported 5.2% in the government’s third estimate. It was still the biggest increase in GDP in a decade, however, excluding the pandemic years of 2020-21. Yet while the economy is still growing, it’s cooled off quite a … [Read more...]
Archives for December 2023
What the U.S. Leading Index is Signaling
Jeffry Bartash of MarketWatch reports that the economy appears headed for recession. He writes: The numbers: The leading economic index declined 0.5% in November, falling for the 20th month in a row, and continued to signal a recession ahead. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.5% drop in the leading index, a gauge of 10 indicators designed to show whether the economy is getting better or worse. The last time the index fell so many times in a row was during the Great Recession, from the end of 2007 through 2009. Key details: Nine of the 10 … [Read more...]
“Take Cover! Get Out of the Market!”
In my conversations and emails with you, you tell me about the many predictions being made for next year. As I wrote to you yesterday, one economist, who seems to be wrong at every turn, is calling for a major correction next year—predicting the stock market bubble will burst. Another manager up in Boston is calling for one, too, and has been for a while. I’m not looking to pile on with criticism. But you may have heard another hedge fund guy on Fox talk about commercial real estate “opportunities” as if he’s talking up his book to dig out from losses. Whether it’s his book, a real book, or … [Read more...]
Consumer Confidence Jumps in December
From the Conference Board's December release on Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in December to 110.7 (1985=100), up from a downwardly revised 101.0 in November. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose to 148.5 (1985=100) from 136.5 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—leapt to 85.6 (1985=100) in December, up from its downwardly revised reading of 77.4 in November. This sharp increase brings … [Read more...]
EV Battery Supplier Drops Plan for Factory in Oklahoma
River Davis of The Wall Street Journal is reporting that site conditions and potential subsidies coupled with uncertainty in EV business growth caused Panasonic to back off building a multibillion-dollar EV battery factory in OK. He writes: Tesla supplier Panasonic said Wednesday that it has decided against building a multibillion-dollar electric vehicle battery factory in Oklahoma. Panasonic already has an EV battery plant under construction in Kansas and had been eyeing Oklahoma as a potential additional location. The Japanese company already operates a joint-venture EV battery plant … [Read more...]
A Stock Market Boom or Bust for 2024?
Your Survival Guy received some Christmas emails asking about a certain economist’s stock market prediction that the bubble’s about to burst. My take? Why ruin Christmas? Maybe he’s right, maybe he’s wrong. What I know for sure is he’s in the business of selling books and making headlines. That’s not acting like a fiduciary. I remember back in 1998 when this same economist wrote a book calling for the roaring 2000s. The roar turned out to be the sound from investors pummeled by the tech bust a few years later. Then he called for, in 2004, another boom to come, taking a pass on the … [Read more...]
Housing Starts Jump to a Six-Month High
Aarthi Swaminathan of MarketWatch is reporting that U.S. housing starts have surged to their highest level since May. She writes: The numbers: Construction of new homes rose 14.8% in November, as builders scaled up new projects. The pace of construction increased as builders saw strong home-buying demand, amid a shortage of homes for sale. So-called housing starts rose to 1.56 million annual pace from 1.36 million in November, the government said Tuesday. That’s how many houses would be built over an entire year if construction took place at the same rate in every month as it did in … [Read more...]
EU and US Agree to Pause Their Trade War
Jonathan Joseph of BBC is reporting that the European Union and the United States have agreed to pause their trade war until after the presidential election. He writes: US tariffs on steel and aluminium and the EU's retaliation on goods including motorcycles and whisky will be suspended until the end of March 2025. They were originally imposed when Donald Trump was president on national security grounds. But they were paused under Joe Biden's administration. The deferment will allow President Biden to keep his EU allies onside. But because they have been paused … [Read more...]
The Coaches
“As Florida State linebackers coach in 1972, Bill Parcells read the preface for Bill Libby’s The Coaches, published that year by Regnery. Feeling that it eloquently described his profession, Parcells condensed the 1,039-word introduction into roughly 390 words that hit home the most. The coach laminated the shortened version. Throughout his long football career, he re-read it, especially during tough times. Below is the exact wording from Parcells’s sheet,” from Parcells: A Football Life, by Bill Parcells and Nunyo Demasio. He is called “Coach.” It is a difficult job, and there is no clear … [Read more...]
Multinational Operation Unveiled to Protect Merchant Ships
Costas Paris and Joe Wallace of The Wall Street Journal are reporting that the Pentagon has unveiled a multi-national operation vowed to protect merchant ships passing through the Suez Canal from Houthi rebels after BP, and Maersk started diverting vessels. They write: The U.S. unveiled a multinational naval force to protect merchant vessels in the Red Sea after Houthi rebel attacks threatened the Suez Canal’s central role in global trade. On Monday, the Pentagon said it was establishing a security operation to protect seaborne traffic from ballistic missiles and drone attacks launched … [Read more...]
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