De-Globalization and The Great Monetary Experiment: These are two major risks facing the world economy going forward, as highlighted by Swiss Re's new report, New emerging risk insights. [gview file="https://www.youngresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/SONAR_2015_WEB.pdf" width="100%" save="0"] A World of Risks: The Impact and Likelihood of Global Risks: Quotable: "Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing." - Warren Buffett "I have long understood that losing always comes with the territory when you wander into the gambling business, just as getting crippled for life is … [Read more...]
The Monday Melee: Paris Air Show Extravaganza
The Boeing 787-9. The Paris Air Show: So far the Paris Air Show has been a success for the world's aircraft manufacturers. As The Wall Street Journal notes "The world’s two largest aircraft makers booked roughly $42 billion in deals on the first day of the weeklong aerospace extravaganza. Bombardier Inc., Embraer SA and other plane makers also secured new orders." Boeing and Airbus Ready Themselves for the Show: Air Travel Continues to Rise: What We're Reading: Notable & Quotable: Milton Friedman (The Wall Street Journal) Speech inflation: Why Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, … [Read more...]
How Does Your State’s GDP Stack Up?
There are a number of predictable winners here, and a few states that may surprise you with their GDP growth numbers. Check out the map below. Source: BEA … [Read more...]
The Monday Melee: The Strong Dollar a Problem?
What did Obama Say? Rumors are circulating that President Obama called the strong dollar a "problem," while speaking to a G7 summit on Sunday. The White House has come out hard against the rumors, but the idea of a strong-dollar problem was strong enough in investors' minds to move the currency market Monday morning. Strong Dollar? While the dollar has strengthened considerably over the last twelve months, the move is not yet large enough to cause concern. You can see on the chart below that the dollar has gained on other currencies, but hasn't reached two standard deviations above mean … [Read more...]
The Monday Melee: The Robots are Coming
Ubiquitous Autonomous and Imminent It seems like everywhere you turn in the news there are stories of new advances in robot technology. Stories are heralding robots as the solution to seemingly every problem. There are rescue robots, killer robots, finance robots, professor robots, flying robots, swimming robots, and every other type you can imagine. Needless to say, robots are getting a lot of attention. Amazon is looking to improve its operations with robots and held a competition to find a robot that could pick out items from shelves. The results were mixed, but it's only a beginning for … [Read more...]
The Monday Melee: A World in Debt
Old and In Debt: Goldman Sachs Asset Management is warning of a looming debt crisis spurred on by aging populations. As seen on the chart below, government debt levels are very high. Meanwhile in China: CNN Money: A new billionaire was created almost every week in China in the first quarter of 2015, according to a report by UBS and PricewaterhouseCoopers. Quotable: "A man in debt is so far a slave." - Ralph Waldo Emerson "Blessed are the young for they shall inherit the national debt." - Herbert Hoover "The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always … [Read more...]
Housing Starts Surprise: Will Higher Rates End the Party?
Housing starts in America totaled 1.135 million in April. That's higher than the analyst consensus of 1.025 million that had been projected. The question is, with the housing industry starting to pick up the pace, will the Federal Reserve be willing, or able, to raise rates without ending the party? On the one hand the Fed must raise rates someday or risk not having any ability to fight future recessions by lowering rates. On the other hand, if the Fed raises rates, housing could respond by ending the rally. The balancing act continues. … [Read more...]
The Monday Melee: Carl Icahn and Apple
Icahn vs. Cook Today Carl Icahn and his Icahn Capital LP wrote a letter urging Apple CEO Tim Cook to buyback more AAPL shares (below). Icahn is an aggressive stakeholder who has transformed many smaller companies. Apple is surely the biggest Icahn has ever attempted to crack. We are pleased that Apple has directionally followed our advice and repurchased $80 billion of its shares (yielding the company’s shareholders an excellent return), but the company’s enormous net cash position continues to grow while the company’s shares are still dramatically undervalued. With Apple’s shares trading … [Read more...]
Is Economic Momentum Slowing?
The release of the ADP Employment Report today confirmed, once again, a trend of decelerating growth in job creation in the United States. It's too early to tell if it's part of a wider slowdown, or simply a blip. The report should put investors on alert for other economic data that could confirm economic trouble. … [Read more...]
The Monday Melee: Internet Rationing Nigh?
Is Internet Rationing Coming Soon?: Adam Whithnall of The Independent writes that in Britain, experts fear that internet capacity could be filled soon and that growing demands from the Internet could consume all of Britain's power generation by 2035. Britain could be forced to introduce internet rationing, after an expert warned it could consume the country’s entire power supply within 20 years. Experts said we were close to “filling up” the nation’s network of optical fibres for the first time ever, with the demands of popular video-streaming websites like YouTube and Netflix putting … [Read more...]
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