First Three Month Decline in Capacity Utilization Since Recession Today capacity utilization, a measure of economic activity and a closely watched indicator of economic well-being, recorded its first three month decline since the recession. VIDEO: David Stockman: The Economy Is Falling Apart What We're Reading: 4 reasons the Fed won’t raise interest rates this summer (Fortune) The Return of King Dollar (National Review) Bad beginnings. (The Economist) U.S. economy still not following script for breakout year (MarketWatch) … [Read more...]
Consumers Less Happy
The latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was released today. For the last two months consumer sentiment has rapidly declined, following six consecutive months of strong increases coinciding with dropping oil prices. The Index fell sharply from 95.4 to 91.2 during the last month. Despite the pullback, the index's current level is still strong and likely means continued growth in consumer spending. Sentiment declined among middle and lower income survey respondents, while upper income respondents' sentiment picked up. The sentiment of the lower income brackets … [Read more...]
Is Euro-Dollar Parity Imminent?
For the first time since 2002 the euro is headed for parity with the U.S. dollar. Contributing to the steep drop in the euro's value vis a vis the dollar is the monetary stimulus recently undertaken by the ECB, and the expectation by many analysts that the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin raising rates by year-end. … [Read more...]
Strong Dollar Hits U.S. Steel Industry
Oil isn't the only commodity affected by strong dollar economics. While the strong dollar has been a boon to consumers in the U.S., commodity producers are facing competitors in countries with weaker currencies who can now offer lower prices. You can see on the chart below that U.S. steel production has plummeted along with London Metal Exchange prices for steel in dollar terms. The U.S. is now importing more steel, with 2014 imports from Russia and China jumping by 96% and 69% respectively. … [Read more...]
The Monday Melee: Rig Counts Plunge
World Rig Count Lowest Since 2010: The number of oil and gas drilling rigs in operation around the world has fallen to the lowest level since 2010. (Shaded areas indicate recession.) Inside a Barrel of Oil: The Future? What We're Reading: France’s Hollande Casts Fate With Ex-Banker Macron (The Wall Street Journal) How to Survive a Bear Market (The Wall Street Journal) ‘Six-stock candles': Wall Street bull turns 6 (USA Today) Business economists support rate hike this year (AP) 6 bad reasons to make changes to your portfolio (MarketWatch) … [Read more...]
The Monday Melee: Baltic Dry Index Anchored
Baltic Dry Index Sits a Lows: The Baltic Exchange is the world's only independent source of maritime market information. It's 600 members are responsible for a large proportion of the world's dry cargo and tanker fixtures. Recently the index derived from the members' pricing information for shipping fell to an all-time low and has remained near that level for days. Global Ship Tracking Seen from Space: Massive Container Ship Docks at London Gateway: From Maersk: Watch the spectacular time lapse video capturing Munkebo Maersk, Maersk Line's latest Triple-E, calling at London Gateway … [Read more...]
VIDEO: Cuban: TV as you know it is over
From CNBC: Enshrining net neutrality into Federal Communications Communications rules will subject the Internet to the whims of politicians and create uncertainty, Mark Cuban told CNBC on Thursday before the agency approved the regulations. Cuban said FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler has changed his position on net neutrality from his original stance in 2010, when the agency used what was widely seen as a lighter touch to regulating Internet traffic. The courts struck down those rules, saying the FCC lacked authority to enforce them, after Verizon issued a legal challenge. … [Read more...]
The Monday Melee: Emerging Market Future?
Emerging Market Debt Growth: Debt growth in emerging markets from 2007-2014 has put them nearly on par with developed countries in dollar terms. In the 2000-2007 era, emerging market debt growth represented 22% of the $37 trillion in new debt. In the last seven years, emerging market debt growth represented 47% of the $49 trillion total growth in debt. What We're Reading: The historical and cultural differences that divide Europe’s union: (Financial Times) "The Fed Is Nervous, And Maybe That's A Good Thing" (Forbes) A Muddle of Mixed Messages From the Fed (The Wall Street Journal) 4 … [Read more...]
VIDEO: BP Energy Outlook
For a moment put aside the impracticality of trying to forecast anything for 20 years, and listen to BP’s chief economist Spencer Dale explain some trends in energy and economics. Keeping an eye on big trends in industry and the fuels it’s powered by is important for anyone considering where to invest going forward. Even though it’s impossible to get it all right over a 20 year period, BP does an admirable job trying. You too should focus on the long-term. Executing an investment plan based on big, long-term trends will beat the short-term, earnings-focused, Wall St.-alarmist strategy of … [Read more...]
Gold for all in India
Big changes could be coming to the gold market in the coming Indian budget. Sources have signaled that the government is likely to cut the 10% tariff on gold imports to 8% or 6%. The Reserve Bank of India has already eliminated some curbs on gold import, including a prohibition on banks selling gold on consignment. Now banks will be able to sell gold as long as they aren’t fronting the money for the inventory. Reuters quoted Prithviraj Kothari, executive director of the India Bullion & Jewellers’ Association as saying he expected as much as a 125% increase in gold imports per month. The … [Read more...]
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