Risk Off: Russia Even though Canada, Norway and Russia are all major petroleum exporters, Russia's ruble is getting hammered compared to the Norwegian krone and the Canadian dollar. The ruble isn't just reacting to oil, it’s reacting to Russia's perceived risk in general. Canada and Norway have low risk, stable governments and strong rule of law. Look at the resilience of their currencies in the face of a strengthening dollar and falling oil prices. Swiss to Buy Gold? Quotable: “A ship is always safe at the shore - but that is not what it is built for.” ― Albert … [Read more...]
Oil Still Expensive in Real Terms
While oil prices have been dropping fast, in real terms prices are still well above their long-term averages. … [Read more...]
Happy Thanksgiving!
The Monday Melee: Turkey Day Edition
On the Road Again Watch out for what promises to be some of the most congested Thanksgiving traffic in years. What We're Reading: How to Decide Whether You Need Rental Car Insurance (lifehacker.com) A Central Bank for the Beltway (The Wall Street Journal) Hiring Good Managers Is Hard? Ha! Try Keeping Them (Research Affiliates) Why there could be life on Venus (Quartz) The Vampire Squid (aka Goldman) strikes again. This time in commodities. (CNN Money) Clueless when it comes to good wine? There's now an app for that. (CNN Money) What the ‘Inequality’ Warriors Really Want (The Wall … [Read more...]
The Monday Melee: Taxes, Japan, and Princess Football
Abenomics Fails In the third quarter GDP sank for the second time in a row in Japan. It turns out printing money and raising taxes is just as bad for the economy as it ever was. Princess Football We're avid football fans here at Youngresearch.com, and this past week's SNL featured this skit with Woody Harrelson that perfectly explained what we think of the new rules in the league. What We're Reading: A perplexing rally (Gavekal Capital Blog) How to Distort Income Inequality (The Wall Street Journal) "Tax Fact of the Day" (Greg Mankiw's Blog) Sterling Hits 14-Month Low Against … [Read more...]
The Monday Melee: To Russia With Love
Ruble Crashing: Low Risk/High Risk Back in March the World Bank predicted two scenarios for Russia's GDP in 2014/2015 given different levels of risk stemming from Russia's annexation of Crimea. Russia's Central Bank has now predicted growth in 2015 markedly lower than even the low-growth scenario predicted by the World Bank earlier this year and predicted higher inflation. The central bank cut the growth forecast in its main outlook for 2015 to zero and pushed back its estimate for meeting an inflation target of 4 percent by one year from 2016, according to the revisions published … [Read more...]
The Monday Melee: A Massive Gov’t Bubble
What We're Reading: "Americans' Initial Christmas Spending Estimate Is Positive" (Gallup) Happy Halloween: Pumpkin facts. (Visaul.ly) Floating trains that fly (Quartz) Buybacks Accelerate but Meet Cynicism (The Wall Street Journal) Monetary policy as a red herring (The Economist) The QE Record (The Wall Street Journal) … [Read more...]
The Monday Melee: Crumbling BRICS
Currency Woes Aside from China, the BRIC currencies have crumbled since 2011. What We’re Reading The predictable "unintended consequences" of Obamacare. (The Wall Street Journal) MAULDIN: We Shouldn’t Be the Least Bit Surprised by Sluggish Global Growth (Business Insider) Washington rolling the dice with your tax dollars...again (The Wall Street Journal) There's No 'There' There With The Latest 'Deflation' Scare (Forbes) Minimum Wage Backfire--sadly this comes as a surprise to the Keynesian crowd. (The Wall Street Journal) How Quantitative Easing Contributed to the Nation’s … [Read more...]
$3 Trillion of Taxes
It was reported by the Treasury Department recently that Federal receipts have crossed the $3 trillion mark for the first time ever in fiscal 2014. But even with the highest receipts in history (much of those receipts caused by onetime tax avoidance measures), a budget surplus is out of reach. … [Read more...]
The Monday Melee: Fed Unsupported By Data
What We’re Reading: It pays to be a dad (CNN Money) Cliff Asness on Inflation & Krugman's Arrogance (realclearmarkets.com) The hydrogen & coconut powered vehicle (Quartz) Fed Can — and Should — Ignore Markets Right Now (MoneyBeat) Eight Ways to Help Improve Your Child's Vocabulary (lifehacker.com) Fed's Bullard hits panic button after Fed inflated bubble starts to deflate. (FT Alphaville) Protect Your Wall with a Sponge When Pulling Nails (lifehacker.com) Doug Kass: The Day The Market Died (zerohedge.com) … [Read more...]
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