Since lows in 2010, auto sales have surged, and have been a bright spot in the U.S. economy. But how much of the surge has been catch up from the sharp drop that began in 2008? More importantly, can the surge continue now that the auto-buying levels of the 2004-07 era have been reached? With oil petering out, home sales flat, exports facing tougher competition from a stronger dollar, and a possible stall in auto-sales, where will new growth come from in the U.S.? … [Read more...]
The Monday Melee: “Grexit” Unavoidable?
Could Europe Cope with a Greek Exit? Is it Unavoidable? What We’re Reading: The Comeback of the Running Back (The Wall Street Journal) The Depression That Was Fixed by Doing Nothing (The Wall Street Journal) Top 5 stock market hoaxes of 2014 (Fortune) A 2015 ‘Rebalancing’ Act for Investors (The Wall Street Journal) Ten warning signs of a market crash in 2015 (The Telegraph) Statisti-Quote: “Since 2010, more than two dozen enclosed shopping malls have been closed, and an additional 60 are on the brink, according to Green Street Advisors, which tracks the mall industry.” — … [Read more...]
Is China Over?
Short answer, no China, as a major part of the world's economic landscape is not over. A country with more than a billion people occupying a massive portion of the largest continent will always be important and shouldn't be overlooked. But, that being said, the story of unending growth that has surrounded China for almost two decades is beginning to falter a bit. Bloomberg's Adam Minter writes: These are not the best of times to be one of China's massive, state-owned steel mills. The domestic economy is slowing, competition is increasing, and there's widespread disgust and impatience with the … [Read more...]
The Monday Melee: New Year, More Lending
Bank Lending Grows: For the first time since 2008 banks have been increasing their lending at average rates. Lending was driven higher by growth in industrial and commercial loans. This trend would seem to reflect growing confidence in the strength of the U.S. economy and higher rates banks can lend at. What We're Reading: After a Bad Year for Funds, Prepare for a Tax Hit (Wall Street Journal) Top 5 stock market hoaxes of 2014 (Fortune) Supply, demand and the price of oil (Econbrowser.com) Junk Bond Risk Appetites Imply Stocks Should Fall At Least 13% (The Felder … [Read more...]
Merry Christmas!
The Monday Melee: Green Christmas?
Retailers Dreaming of Green this Christmas Retailers are looking for hope in retail sales going into the last stretch of the Christmas buying season. Trend growth in retail sales is on the decline in America. After showing some strength in mid-2014, the ICSC-Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index has reverted to its trend rates of growth. Seven Years Later: Planned Gift Spending Nears 2007 Levels "Shoppers around the country say they are planning to spend an average of $861 for gifts this holiday season, up from $801 last year according to the 30th annual survey on holiday … [Read more...]
The Monday Melee: MAP: Student Loan Debt
Industry Roars: Industrial production recorded the largest monthly uptick since May 2010 in November. The acceleration in growth surprised the 81 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, who had predicted an increase of only 0.7%, and instead witnessed growth of 1.3% recorded for the month. When combined with recent strong growth in employment, upticks in industrial production and other economic measures make it harder to understand the Fed's continued defense of its low-rates-forever policy. What We're Reading: A Monthly Check for Life? Don’t Forget Inflation (The Wall Street Journal) Energy’s … [Read more...]
The Monday Melee: The Value of a Dollar
Strongest Dollar in Years The dollar is the strongest it’s been since July 2010, but still isn't at its strongest historically. Returning to a Stable Dollar Quotable: "The appreciation of the dollar against the backdrop of divergent monetary policies may, if persistent, have a profound impact on the global economy, in particular on EMEs. For example, it may expose financial vulnerabilities as many firms in emerging markets have large US dollar-denominated liabilities continued depreciation of the domestic currency against the dollar could reduce the creditworthiness of many firms, … [Read more...]
The Monday Melee: Risk Off
Risk Off: Russia Even though Canada, Norway and Russia are all major petroleum exporters, Russia's ruble is getting hammered compared to the Norwegian krone and the Canadian dollar. The ruble isn't just reacting to oil, it’s reacting to Russia's perceived risk in general. Canada and Norway have low risk, stable governments and strong rule of law. Look at the resilience of their currencies in the face of a strengthening dollar and falling oil prices. Swiss to Buy Gold? Quotable: “A ship is always safe at the shore - but that is not what it is built for.” ― Albert … [Read more...]
Oil Still Expensive in Real Terms
While oil prices have been dropping fast, in real terms prices are still well above their long-term averages. … [Read more...]
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