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Investment Research Since 1978

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Remember This from FTX Bankruptcy and You Can Thank Yourself Later

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The fall of crypto exchange FTX is a brutal lesson in fear and greed. Not the fear of losing but the fear of missing out or FOMO. FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried (SBM) said this on the podcast “Odd Lots” describing how venture capitalists pick investments (highlighted by Jason Zweig in his WSJ column the “Intelligent Investor”): You get a bizarre f—ing process that does not look like the paragon of efficient markets that you might expect. [Venture capitalists] see what all their friends are chattering about, and their friends keep talking about this company…and they start FOMOing [feeling the … [Read more...]

What’s the Hardest Thing About Owning Company Stock?

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OK, we know how much the billionaires are worth—less than they were—like they’re acquaintances. Job cuts are happening by the tens of thousands. The tech oligarchs will be just fine paying the heating bill. But think about the worker who started the year with stock worth a million—worth less than a hundred grand now. That’s life changing. It’s tough selling company stock. It’s a double-edged sword. A sale looks like a lack of faith. And it’s devastating to think about missing out on future gains. And then the crash comes. When prices are going up, it’s hard to think about developing a … [Read more...]

“The Heat Isn’t Working Upstairs”

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Your Survival Guy returned home from work yesterday (yes, going to the office is still a thing) to: “The heat isn’t working upstairs.” I’ll let you guess who said it, considering we’re now empty nesters. If our dog could talk, his eyes were saying, “You might want to go back to work.” On the coldest day of the year (so far), it was the second time we turned on the heat or tried to this year. Which brings me to another note to self: “When the AC wasn’t working a couple of months ago, maybe that was a good time to get the heating system checked out. Just saying.” Action Line: Look, I’m … [Read more...]

Which European Countries Have the Best Tax Systems?

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Whether you're looking for new international investment opportunities or simply wondering where the government will get the least of your vacation dollars, it's handy to take a look at foreign countries' tax structures. Your Survival Guy has been spending more time in Europe again now that COVID regulations have subsided a bit, and it's important to pay attention to what you're up against when you travel. The best place to look for clarity on European tax structures is the Tax Foundation, which releases an annual International Tax Competitiveness Index explaining the differences in OECD … [Read more...]

Your Survival Guy’s Way to Wealth

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Your Survival Guy's way to wealth is about winning the slow and steady race. It's about showing up. It's about doing your job. It's about saving 'til it hurts and working as long as you can. And then—after a lifetime of work, saving, and investing (not speculating)—you can stop and think for a second and ask yourself: "How in the heck did I save all this money?" Columnist Andy Kessler writes an outstanding (depressing) piece in The Wall Street Journal, "The Decline of Work." He writes about the value of work and refers to Mike Rowe—of Dirty Jobs fame—about the value of getting a job and … [Read more...]

Your Survival Guy in Paris: A Sunday Lunch to Love

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OK, where is Your Survival Guy’s favorite lunch in Paris? Glad you asked. Answer: the next one. But, seriously, what makes a great lunch, great? One measure is when you’re back home, you want to replicate some of those flavors and memories that made it special. La Fontaine de Mars is where we eat Sunday lunch. We own their pink and red checkered cloth napkins as a reminder—when they’re draped over our kitchen island, everyone knows we’re in for a special time. Yes, it’s possible to be in Paris from the comfort of your home. I take that trip often. Walking to La Fontaine de Mars from Le … [Read more...]

November RAGE Gauge: Live a Life of Balance, Especially in Your Investments

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A balanced portfolio is far from dead. It keeps you in the game, so you don’t have to time the market. Yesterday was the biggest one-day percentage gain for stocks since the depths of Covid and the biggest one-day plunge in 2 and 10-year treasury bond yields in over a decade (remember, when rates fall, bond prices increase). You don’t want to be in the prediction business. Markets are in the business of making winners and losers daily. I want you to focus on investing to earn dividends and interest. Let the prices do what they do—I don’t need to be in the rah, rah, rah business. This is … [Read more...]

Follow Your Survival Guy Down This Road to Wealth

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There’s nothing wrong with incremental growth. It keeps you focused day in and day out so you don’t lose sight of the prize. With that said, let’s focus on what you can do today. Look, I’m Your Survival Guy, not Robert Frost—I don’t need to take the road less traveled when the one before me is smooth and well-maintained. I don’t need to be a hero when I’m simply going for a walk—one step in front of the other. I like the routine. Your kids and grandkids might, too, if you get them on the road to wealth early in life. Leave the adventure stuff to other areas of life—my money is on the slow … [Read more...]

You Realized This Long Ago About Your Work

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In my conversation with you, you prove to me that a life built upon incremental growth is one worth living. Let’s see, in just the last year you’ve finished your barn, tucked away your vintage Jag you’ll be rebuilding, got your brother’s island house in Maine off the grid, fixed some islanders’ tractors and trucks, fixed your brother’s boat, and are finishing up a rebuild for your RV Sprinter. That’s a lot. “I didn’t do it alone,” you said. “My brother and I have been living this way our whole lives.” The school of “Necessity” graduates geniuses every year. “It’s all about incremental … [Read more...]

Make These States Competitive Again

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States are supposed to be the laboratories of democracy, but the "scientists" running the labs in places like New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and California have been failing for years. One reason for that is their tax policies don't consider the long-term competitiveness of their states, and instead focus on raising money to pay for politicians' dream projects. The Wall Street Journal's Editorial Board explains that "the real economic benefits come from making a state more competitive for the long haul." They rank the 10 best states for tax climate in 2023: Wyoming South Dakota … [Read more...]