Do you remember when you purchased your first home? If you’re old enough, you remember when interest rates were as high as 12 3/4%, as a client friend reminded me yesterday. “I didn’t worry too much about the interest rate because, in relative terms, it was reflected in the price.” The price was always the main driver of value. Still is. What’s always worth remembering, he reminded me, is you can negotiate the terms. But you can’t revisit the purchase price. And if banks aren’t interested in renegotiating the terms, you can do it yourself through the back door by doubling or tripling your … [Read more...]
Richard Young Reports: The Great Money Explosion and Disasters
You and I know disasters happen. Just because they haven’t happened yet doesn’t mean they won’t. But disasters aren’t accidents. People do dangerous stuff—beginning with getting out of bed. It’s the start of your chaotic day. The world is filled with Chaos. As my father-in-law Dick Young reminds me from time to time, “There’s no such thing as accidents.” I try to explain that to my teenaged kids, though they insist “accidents” happen all the time. When it comes to your money, think about it like you’re hiking with a heavy backpack (I hope!) where you have decisions to make about which … [Read more...]
Fidelity’s 26 Million Retail Accounts in 2020, Up 17%
Yours truly can attest to Fidelity’s banner year, as business is booming in my neck of the woods. Never before have I opened more accounts for existing and new customers. Who would have thought this would EVER happen in a pandemic year? I certainly did NOT. But as I’ve written to you before, when it comes to investing, you don’t want to be in the PREDICTION business. It never hurts to have a front-row seat, though. “Fidelity’s Retail Investor Accounts Rise 17% to 26 million” reports the WSJ here: Fidelity Investments capped 2020 with record annual operating profit, lifted by strong … [Read more...]
You’re Rich When You Invest Like Croesus
One of my favorite investment themes is about investing like you don’t need the money. Because THE MARKET doesn’t care about your NEEDS. Time and time again it’s the investor who doesn’t need the market who ends up being as RICH AS CROESUS. I want you to think about your investments as lifetime positions that you don’t need to maintain solvency. Learn, like I do, from the rich and you’ll discover what TRUE investment success feels like. Konrad Putzier discusses Charles Koch and his company's real estate business, writing in The Wall Street Journal: Koch Industries Inc. is emerging as a … [Read more...]
Joel Kotkin: Economic Civil War
On his blog, Joel Kotkin explains that America is in a form of economic civil war, with the tangible economy of "making, growing, and using real things," in competition with the "incorporeal world of media and digital transactions." Donald Trump, the irascible New York developer, focused on the places where the tangible economy was strong, but President Biden convinced enough voters in heartland states that their economic interests would be taken seriously. Some parts of the Biden agenda—measures to reshore industry, restore supply chains, and improve basic infrastructure—could unify the … [Read more...]
Teaching A Family Investment: Warren Buffett’s Annual Letter and You
It’s nice to have some traditions you can count on. One of those is Warren Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway, released over the weekend. With all the chaos in the world, it’s nice to have stability when you can find it. I read the report Sunday morning before Becky and I met my parents for lunch at a favorite spot in Tiverton, RI. My Mom and I ordered the fresh cod with littlenecks and linguica. My Dad commented that he had the same dish Friday with his friend at another restaurant in New Bedford. If you’ve ever read the history of how Berkshire Hathaway got … [Read more...]
Welcome to the Interest Rate Prediction Business, JACK!
Jack be nimble, Jack be quick. Jack jumped over the…you know how it goes. As investors stomp their feet because stocks are going down (the horror), let’s not forget what’s happening to bonds. Anyone who reached for yield on the 30-year Treasury is learning about duration—basically, for every one percent increase in rates, bond prices drop, in percentage terms, by the years of maturity. In other words, if rates go up, long-term bonds get killed by a factor many times worse than short-term bonds. It’s pretty easy to hold short-term bonds to maturity, in times like these, and handle the … [Read more...]
Petrified Snow/Ice Fishing? How about a Boat? and More
One of the greatest things about winter is you can dream about summer. After a few days of warm(er) temps here in New England, we’re seeing some of the snow melt. Quite a bit, actually, has already melted in Newport, RI, except for those stubborn piles of petrified snow—not very pretty. I’m not sure it can be called snow. It’s more like groups of fossils. In speaking with you, most of you are between rounds one and two of the vaccine, not getting it at all, or already done with two rounds—and you’re all itchin’ to get out. It’s a common theme where you’re looking to move freely about your … [Read more...]
COVID Chaos: New York and California vs. Florida and South Dakota
Recently at YourSurvivalGuy.com, you read about the Butterfly Effect— that’s “the notion that a butterfly stirring the air today in Peking can transform storm systems next month in New York,” explained by James Gleick in Chaos. In other words, the weather is like a domino effect. But what about non-weather events? Like a dead animal in China. Look at the COVID storm we’re in today. What’s even more disastrous is how government officials in certain blue states (Cuomo in NY and Newsom in CA) have created chaos. You just can’t make it up, especially when compared to Gov/s Kristi Noem, SD, and … [Read more...]
Deep Survival, Who Lives, Who Dies, and Why
In Deep Survival, Who Lives, Who Dies, and Why, author Laurence Gonzales explains, “The events that we call ‘accidents’ do not just happen. There is not some vector of pain that causes them. People have to assemble the systems that make them happen. Even then, nothing may happen for a long time.” In 1960, when MIT meteorologist Edward Lorenz was modeling weather systems, he discovered a tiny change in the initial state (1 part in 1,000), explains Gonzales, was enough to produce totally different weather patterns. It became known as the Butterfly Effect, “the notion that a butterfly stirring … [Read more...]
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