This is 1 Scary New Forecast: Is Recession Forthcoming?
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast tanked in the last week. From October 3 to October 14 the estimate of Q3 real GDP growth went from 2.2% to 1.9%. That's well below consensus estimates. … [Read more...]
Global Gross Debt Reaches Record High: Is the World Economy at Risk?
Global gross debt in non-financial sectors reached $152 trillion in 2015 according to the IMF. Skyrocketing debt has reached 225% of global GDP. … [Read more...]
Consumer Confidence Hits 9 Year High in Latest Release
American consumer confidence hit a nine-year high today, the highest reading since the Great Recession. … [Read more...]
OPEC: Why do Cartels Fail? They Cheat
Cartels like OPEC don't work very well because cheating is rampant. Look at OPEC's oil production quota vs. its actual production over time. Rarely do the two meet. … [Read more...]
China Watch: A Scary New Report Says Banking a Massive Risk
The latest BIS Quarterly Review highlights China's Credit-to-GDP gap, and a debt-service-ratio that appears to be potentially risky given an interest rate move of 250bps. … [Read more...]
Are You One of the Investors Fleeing Equities for Bonds?
Today's ICI report on long-term flows to mutual and exchange trade funds showed a continuation of the flight from equity funds and the charge into bond funds that has been underway since early this year. … [Read more...]
ISM Non-Manufacturing Lowest Since Feb 2010
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business Purchasing Managers' Index reported its lowest reading since February 2010 today. Of particular note was the decline in new export orders. … [Read more...]
Surprise: ISM Manufacturing Report Declines
The ISM Report on Manufacturing recorded a surprise decline in August. Any index value below 50 indicates a decline in manufacturing, and this month's reading was the first decline since February. … [Read more...]
Consumers are the Bright Spot in Economy
Personal consumption spending in the 2nd quarter increased at an almost 4.4% annual rate while broader GDP growth barely cleared the 1% hurdle. GDP is the blue bars in the chart and personal consumption spending is the gold line. … [Read more...]
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