New home sales soar to highest level in almost nine years. … [Read more...]
Non-Performing Loans Resume Decline
After increasing last quarter for the first time since 2010, the percentage of non-performing loans to total loans resumed its decline once again in the second quarter of 2016. … [Read more...]
Earnings Resume their Rise
After three months of decline and stagnation, real average hourly earnings rose once more in July to their highest since September of 1973. … [Read more...]
Surprise! Labor Productivity Collapses
Labor productivity fell for the first time in three years in the second quarter. Economists polled by Bloomberg were surprised when their prediction of 0.5% growth in labor productivity turned into a -0.5% drop in productivity. … [Read more...]
Consumer Credit: Slowest Increase in Four Years
Today's consumer credit report showed the slowest increase in four years. You can see on the chart below that the relatively stable levels of consumer credit over the last few years appear to be rolling over. … [Read more...]
What are Auto Sales Telling the Market?
U.S. auto sales continue to fall. Historically, peaks in sales have come near the middle of the business cycle. Sales sit well below this cycle's peak today. … [Read more...]
Gasoline vs. Rigs: Which Signal is Right?
Gasoline stocks in the U.S. are in uncharted territory, at all time highs for this point in the year. Simultaneously, the rig count has climbed off its all-time lows of 404 rigs in operation to 462. There are really three possibilities, either 1) gasoline is in a glut and prices will fall, 2) drillers are over enthusiastic about crude price stabilization and will end up shutting down rigs, again, or 3) in the face of low oil prices, U.S. producers have become efficient enough to displace higher cost production elsewhere. … [Read more...]
Pokemon Go, A Cautionary Tale
Look at what happened to Nintendo shares when management reminded everyone that the company doesn't own that much of Pokemon Go. Blows a bit of a hole in the semi-strong form efficient market hypothesis doesn't it? … [Read more...]
As Prices Fell, Frackers Became more Productive
Prices for crude oil are still down from their highs, but drillers have gained productivity, offsetting the negative impacts of prices. … [Read more...]
Housing Materials More Expensive Today than 2005
The Ro-Mac Lumber Whole House Commodity Index, which tracks the cost of building a 2,200 sq/ft home in Central Florida, hit another record high today. … [Read more...]
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