What is the Outlook for the Vanguard GNMA Fund in 2020? GNMA bond prices like all bond prices are influenced by the level of interest rates and the outlook for interest rates. GNMA bonds are bonds that are backed by mortgages, so their prices tend to be influenced more by the level of long-term interest rates than by short-term interest rates, but both matter. The Federal Reserve has absolute control over short-term interest rates, but their policies heavily influence the level of long-term interest rates. What Does Interest Rate Policy Mean for Vanguard … [Read more...]
Potential Index Fund Component Loses 98%
If you want to get an inside look at how the sausage is made with certain index funds, take a look at this story by Jacky Wong in The Wall Street Journal: The giants of passive investment need to get more active. Marble mining company ArtGo’s 3313 117.86% Hong Kong-listed shares fell 98% Thursday after index compiler MSCI, MSCI +1.24% in a rare U-turn, dropped its plan to add the company to its indexes. MSCI said the decision followed further analysis and feedback from market participants about the stock, which had soared 3,800% this year. A Heard on the Street column Wednesday may have … [Read more...]
The Final Nail in the Coffin for Mutual Funds
The mutual fund industry has been facing headwinds for years. First, the industry became too big. So dominant were the biggest funds, they couldn’t invest without moving the market themselves. The next problem for mutual funds was the advent of the ETF. ETFs hollowed out the high-fee actively managed equity fund industry. I wrote about these problems here in November of 2006: I write often that the majority of mutual funds offer no compelling reason for investment. Here’s a double shocker for you. Of the top-ten largest equity mutual funds, seven come from one family. How could one … [Read more...]
Vanguard Wellington (VWELX): The Original Balanced Fund
The Vanguard Wellington Fund (VWELX) is the original balanced mutual fund. It was the first mutual fund to include bonds in its portfolio and the 7th open-end mutual fund ever launched in the United States. It also happens to be one of the most successful mutual funds of all-time. From its inception in 1929, the Vanguard Wellington Fund has turned a $10,000 investment into over $11,000,000 (through year-end 2018). Wellington’s approach of investing in stocks, as well as bonds, is the driving force behind the fund’s 90+ year record of investment success. Were it not for the decision of … [Read more...]
Caution: Returns in the Rearview May Be Closer than They Appear
Many investor presentations and fund brochures focus on three year returns. But without a bear market since 2009, how can investors see how a fund handles volatile markets using three year returns? Past returns can never predict the future, but an investor can learn something about the resilience of a fund manger's strategy by examining how the fund performed in past times of turbulence. John Coumarianos suggests using 15 year returns for fund analysis today, so investors can see an entire cycle included. The future ain’t what it used to be, Yogi Berra said. But now, when it comes to … [Read more...]
Vanguard is Telling You the Problem with Indexing
If you want to understand the problem with index investing, then consider what the king of indexing is doing. Recently Vanguard announced its robo-only advisor service. If you signup for this, you will not speak with a live representative and you will not be allowed to invest in non-Vanguard funds. When you step back and consider all of the advertising Vanguard is doing for its actively managed funds the reason becomes crystal clear. I want you to pay attention here. Indexing or passive investing will destroy the wealth of the masses asleep at the wheel. You will not be one of them, I … [Read more...]
Big Short’s Michael Burry Calls a Bubble in Passive Investing
Bloomberg's Heejin Kim and Myungshin Cho report that Michael Burry of "Big Short" fame has called out what he says is a bubble in passive investing. They write: Michael Burry shot to fame and fortune by betting against mortgage securities before the 2008 crisis, a trade immortalized in “The Big Short.” Now, Burry sees another contrarian opportunity emerging from what he calls the “bubble” in passive investment. As money pours into exchange-traded funds and other index-tracking products that skew toward big companies, Burry says smaller value stocks are being unduly neglected around the … [Read more...]
Is Liquidity Risk Lurking in the ETF Market?
Can ETFs maintain liquidity during times of market turbulence, or should rules be changed to allow ETF providers to pay market makers directly in order to ensure stability? That's the debate currently raging among market participants. At Bloomberg, Ksenia Galouchko reports on the problem and possible solutions: Some see a potential cure in a practice that’s commonplace from Italy to the U.K. but banned in America: ETF providers paying market-makers directly. The argument goes that conflict-of-interest concerns are misplaced -- and that traders under contract to keep transacting in passive … [Read more...]
Are you Part of the Herd Inflating the Indexing Bubble?
The WSJ's Dawn Lim reports that after a temporary lull, the flood of money moving into passively managed index funds and ETFs has resumed. Lim writes: A decadelong shift of money and power from old-fashioned money managers into index funds resumed its march in 2019. Last year, net inflows into funds that track markets fell about 30% from the year before, according to Morningstar data. Some firms said fears around slowing global growth and a particularly volatile stock market led investors to take money from asset management’s most popular products. The 2018 slowdownwas … [Read more...]
The Disaster Waiting to Happen in Bond ETFs
There's something akin to a bank run happening at some bond ETFs. Despite the easily traded nature of ETFs, when the underlying assets they represent aren't very liquid, redeeming shares can be a real problem. Bloomberg's Rachel Evans and Emily Barrett report: A couple of prominent investment funds are currently living through a portfolio manager’s worst nightmare: So many customers are demanding their money back that withdrawals need to be frozen. Amit Deshpande, a former longtime risk manager, sees it as a wake-up call. In particular, he’s watching the growing ranks of asset managers who … [Read more...]
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