Another component of my RAGE Gauge is Americans' dissatisfaction with the direction of the country as measured by Gallup's poll of "Satisfaction With the United States." The poll asks responders the simple question "In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?" This is a great gauge of Americans' overall contentedness, and elevated dissatisfaction could be a sign of pending social unrest or other dislocations in the economy as a whole. Today Americans are dissatisfied at rates higher than the fifteen year average. This indicates … [Read more...]
Investing in Water
You can learn a tremendous amount about investment trends by thinking in terms of your family’s survivals needs. Lately, I’ve been keenly interested in ways to tap into the vast supply of sea water surrounding Newport, RI. Desalination is not cheap but I believe it is what the future will look like—where you, the individual will be empowered. More on a DIY watermaker here. … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge: The Real Unemployment Rate
The typical headline unemployment numbers the American news media reports (U3) are inadequate for measuring not just unemployment, but underemployment. Many part time employees would prefer full time employment. The U6 unemployment number you see above includes more of the employees left out by the headline number; those who are marginally attached to the workforce, and those who are employed part time for economic reasons. The effect of the expanded definition is a fuller understanding of how many Americans aren't working as much as they would like to. The U6 rate is an important component … [Read more...]
Hooked on a Feeling: It’s What Separates the Best from the Rest
Do you want to know what investing is to me? It’s a feeling. To have a feeling for the market, like sailing a boat, is to separate the good investors from the greats. Why is it important to get a feel for the market? Because the knowledge we seek is not always available in reports, and often it’s distorted by reporting bias. It’s why I personally favor anecdotal evidence for the truth about the markets. For example, nothing in the world can replace conversations I have with my clients or emails from you. They give me on-the-ground intelligence I never, ever find in daily stock … [Read more...]
Meet the One Person Every Business in the World Needs
Happy Memorial Day Weekend. Time for remembrance. Time for summer. Time to get to work. When I was a kid I had three different jobs: a paper route, cutting lawns, and scooping ice-cream. One person I met at all three was, “the customer.” At the first job, the paper-route, I didn’t see the customer every day, but I would if I missed a house, got bit by their dog, was late, or needed to collect money. At the second job, cutting lawns, I’d see them if I missed a spot, got stung by a bee from their bee box or needed to collect money. And at the third-one, scooping ice-cream, there was a never … [Read more...]
Jimmy Buffett’s: A Pirate Looks at 40
Make sure you have a chance to appreciate where you’re going and where you’ve been. Jimmy Buffett put on a pop-up show Monday in Austin, TX in preparation for his summer tour “I Don’t Know”. A client of mine is driving up to Nashville, TN for tonight’s sold-out show at the Ascend Amphitheatre. Here’s a great video of Buffett and Jerry Jeff Walker. Walker (Mr. Bojangles) was the person who gave Buffett refuge in Coconut Grove, FL after he fled Nashville. It was in Walker’s Packard that they drove to Key West for Buffett’s first visit. It was there where they met Phil Clark, the “Pirate” in … [Read more...]
Joseph’s Garage Featured in Babson Magazine
You will love this story about the Joseph brothers featured in Babson Magazine Spring 2016. They run a third-generation business in Norwell, MA started by their grandfather in 1928. It reminded me of a family run gas station in Newport that closed not too long ago. Just like Cheers everybody knew your name, your kids’ names, and always had a dog treat handy. Technology can’t replace everything. The Joseph brothers don’t bother having business meetings. Many times, they can come to a decision without even saying a word to each other. Art and John, both ’84, are the third-generation owners … [Read more...]
Looking Back at a Random Walk Down Wall Street
Burton Malkiel has released a new edition of his book A Radom Walk Down Wall Street. In it he recommends substituting a part of a bond portfolio with high-yielding stocks. This is rotten advice and will likely get his followers into some trouble down the road. Yes, bond yields are low, but bonds should always be in your portfolio. I’ve called out Mr. Malkiel in the past on his tendency to offer up poor recommendations while talking up his book. For example when he talks about China: But, a couple of years ago, in late 2010, Malkiel recommended overweighting China. The following year, … [Read more...]
Pensions in a Load of Trouble, Part II
The state of Rhode Island has been a big-time investor, through its pensions, in hedge funds. Retired teachers who depend on this money for retirement should not be invested in hedge funds. It’s as simple as that. Unfortunately in the world of public pensions big committees and chest thumping rule the day. Egos and resume building cloud judgement. And performance takes a hit. It’s no surprise that hedge funds are coming under attack. Assets are heading out the door. This could have been avoided. Read more here on Pensions in a Load of Trouble Part I FLASHBACK: RI Pension … [Read more...]
When the Wi-Fi Goes Out: The Eagles Take It Easy
Losing your internet connection or Wi-Fi can be pretty annoying. Lately we’ve been experiencing spotty Wi-Fi connectivity at our house. Last night our internet was completely out because a cable was accidentally cut by a “third party” construction company. It’s not the end of the world. But it doesn’t help, especially when your teenagers are trying to do their homework. It’s ironic, now that I think about it, we had the Eagles, Their Greatest Hits (1971-1975) spinning on our record player. This is by far our most played album over the last six months. It’s a perfect early-in-the-week album. … [Read more...]
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