According to the ADP Employment Report, private sector payrolls contracted for the second month in a row in September. September’s payroll numbers fell well short of economists' estimates. If the government payroll numbers mirror the ADP report, you can guarantee another ill-advised round of quantitative easing will begin at the Fed’s next policy meeting. … [Read more...]
Vital Intelligence for Investment Success
If you read The Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times, you have likely heard about the “risk trade.” It’s a term journalists have been using with increasing frequency to explain the behavior of financial markets. You see, since the financial crisis struck, risky assets have either been rising together or falling together. There has been much less distinction among the returns of risky assets. You have days where either bonds are up or stocks, commodities, and risky currencies are up—it’s risk on or risk off. This recent phenomenon can be explained by an increase in the correlation among … [Read more...]
CRB Spot Index Hits All-Time High
Is it deflation that we should be worried about? According to the Fed, inflation is too low. That may be a temporary problem. The CRB commodity spot index just hit a new all-time high. The index is up 15% YTD. … [Read more...]
Bernanke’s Biggest Fear
The Fed created an uproar on Wall Street this week by changing the language in its post-meeting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement. The FOMC is, of course, the committee that sets monetary policy at the Federal Reserve. The new language that excited investors was the following: Measures of underlying inflation are currently at levels somewhat below those the Committee judges most consistent, over the longer run, with its mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation … [Read more...]
Stocks with the Highest Prospective Returns
For decades, I have advised my monthly strategy report subscribers to invest in stable companies with entrenched competitive positions, strong balance sheets, and a history of paying dividends. Many of the stocks I advise are considered high-quality stocks. What is a high-quality stock? There are varying definitions of quality. Standard and Poor’s generates quality rankings for stocks based on the growth and stability of earnings and dividends. Others include measures of debt and returns on capital. Most investors would consider stocks with consistent earnings growth, strong balance sheets, … [Read more...]
Auto Loans Getting Longer
Here is an interesting chart. This shows the length of new car loans in months. Some car buyers are now financing auto loans for up to six years. The average, according to the below chart is 64 months. Either cars are lasting longer or buyers are reaching to buy more car than they can afford. … [Read more...]
Don’t Miss This Opportunity
Long-term interest rates are at their lowest level in over four decades. Today, the Treasury can borrow money for 30 years at an interest rate of less than 4%. Adjusted for trend inflation, Uncle Sam is looking at a rate below 1%. Long rates of less than 4% are even more surprising given the sorry state of public finances and the vast supply of high-powered money sitting on bank balance sheets. The prospect of an oversupply of treasury issuance or rising inflation could send interest rates soaring. Long bonds would get crushed in such a scenario. Today’s ultralow long bond rates are a grave … [Read more...]
The Record High Price of Gold: A Currency Story
Gold reached a record high on Tuesday, closing at $1,271.70 per troy ounce. It is up over 15% this year. That’s great for gold investors, but what does it mean for the currency in which it’s being quoted, the U.S. dollar? Relative to gold, the dollar, as shown in the chart below, is worth only two-thirds what it was worth at the beginning of 2008, just after the start of the market crash. The euro has maintained 60% of its value compared to gold, and the Swiss franc has retained a more impressive 75% of its value. Gold has had a tremendous run relative to all three currencies. This is not … [Read more...]
Swiss Franc Smashes U.S. Dollar
The Swiss franc blasts through parity with the U.S. dollar. The franc is up more than 14% versus the USD since hitting a low in June of this year. … [Read more...]
3 Reasons to Invest with Caution
At Young Research we maintain three cyclical stock price indexes—an early cyclical index, a late cyclical index, and a stable growth index. When evaluated together, the relative performance of these indexes versus the S&P 500 serves as a useful real-time indicator of the economy. The benefits of using asset prices as one gauge of the strength of the economy are that they are not subject to reporting lags, data is not revised, and there is no chance of modeling error. Asset prices are determined daily by the collective wisdom of millions of well-informed investors. These investors have … [Read more...]
- « Previous Page
- 1
- …
- 626
- 627
- 628
- 629
- 630
- …
- 644
- Next Page »