The short end of the yield curve remains punishing for investors. Yields on two-year notes are now below the lows reached at the height of the financial crisis, and five-year notes yield a scant 1.68%. Going out longer on the yield curve still isn't an answer to paltry yields, though. Long bonds are significantly overvalued from both long- and short-term perspectives. The low level of Treasury yields is both frustrating and maddening. Policymakers are attempting to recapitalize the banking system by engineering a steep yield curve. The Fed has essentially lowered the risk-free … [Read more...]
A Raging Bull Market in MLPs
The raging bull market in MLPs shows no signs of slowing. Since the S&P 500 peaked in October of 2007, MLPs have gained more than 33%, while the S&P 500 dropped 25%. YTD, MLPs are up 17%, compared to a loss on the S&P 500. … [Read more...]
Vanguard CEO’s Biggest Worry
You can probably count on one hand the people you trust to give you sound investment advice. For a number of reasons, talking about money even with them isn’t always the easiest thing to do, and often it’s worse than talking about religion and politics. Trust is paramount. Two companies that have gained the trust of individual investors are Vanguard and Fidelity (disclosure: Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd., invests in some Vanguard funds and uses Fidelity as a custodian for client accounts). Billions of dollars have poured into both firms while less desirable firms have dealt with net … [Read more...]
A Simple Strategy for Stock Market Success
For over four decades I have used a simple strategy to successfully invest in the stock market. I invest exclusively in dividend paying stocks. I especially favor those with high yields, a strong balance sheet, and a history of annual dividend hikes. This strategy is simple, but it works. Historically, high dividend payers have outperformed non-dividend payers. In the chart below I show the growth of $1 in non-dividend paying stocks to the growth of $1 in the highest yielding quintile (top 20%) of U.S. stocks. The difference in performance is profound. $1 invested in non-dividend payers in … [Read more...]
Avoid Australian Equities?
The correlation between Australian stocks and Chinese stocks is near a record high. If you are bearish on China, you probably want to avoid Australian equities. … [Read more...]
Stop Losing Money in ETFs
You may be thinking about using fixed-income ETFs to fill out your portfolio. Don’t. I continue to avoid fixed-income ETFs, as should you. The low liquidity of many bonds creates wide discount/premium gaps between the price and the net asset value (NAV) of the funds. If you buy the fund at a premium, you’re whacking yourself with a notional loss right out of the gate. For quick proof, take a look at my chart of the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund (LQD). The top part of the chart shows the price and net asset value (NAV) of the fund. If you buy the fund when the price is … [Read more...]
The Lifeblood of the U.S. Economy
The small business sector accounts for half of private-sector GDP and two-thirds of new job creation. You aren’t likely to see the current stimulus- and inventory-restocking-led recovery turn into a self-sustaining recovery without a strong small business sector. What is the current state of small business, and what does it mean for economic growth? The best source of data on small business is the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). With 500,000 members, the NFIB is the nation’s leading small business organization. Each month, the NFIB sends thousands of NFIB members a … [Read more...]
Record Low for Car Purchase Plans
If consumers follow through with their purchase plans for major appliances, new homes, and new cars, economic growth is likely to slow significantly over coming quarters. Plans to buy a new car are at record lows and plans to buy a new home are bordering on record lows. … [Read more...]
Earn Safe Profits from Takeover Candidates
There are two strategies that can be used to profit from takeover candidates. Most investors are familiar with the strategy of investing in speculative takeover candidates. Buying takeover candidates just prior to a merger announcement can be highly rewarding. Returns of 30–50% in a matter of weeks are possible, but there is also significant risk. If not done with discipline, investing in prospective takeover candidates can be a perilous strategy. To safely profit from takeover candidates, you want to buy companies that are the target of a publicly announced merger. This is called merger … [Read more...]
90 Million Emotions Wreak Havoc
With the market in a correction and off 10% this quarter, emotions are running high. I want you to take a minute this weekend and get your bearings. Clear your head of the emotions that hinder sound analysis and get yourself on the road to the investment success you deserve. A lesson worth remembering is that, without fail, investors tend to miss out on the market’s biggest gains, getting sucked in when the big money has already been made, and suffering from its biggest losses. I know this from studying money flows, and in part thanks to the 2010 edition of the Investment Company … [Read more...]
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