The latest industrial production numbers were released this morning and they came in below estimates with the prior month revised down. The year-to-year rate of change in industrial production is now -1.75%. In the post WWII period, industrial production has never contracted by 1.75% or more without that contraction being associated with a recession. One data point does not a recession forecast make. And this time could of course be different as the industrial sector is a much smaller part of the economy than it was decades ago, but investors should have their antennae up sensing for signs of more widespread trouble.
The following two tabs change content below.
Jeremy Jones, CFA
Jeremy Jones, CFA is the Director of Research at Young Research & Publishing Inc., and the Chief Investment Officer at Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. Jeremy is a contributing editor of youngresearch.com.
Latest posts by Jeremy Jones, CFA (see all)
- Grantham’s GMO says U.S. Stock Bubble is Busting - January 18, 2019
- Is a Shaky Outlook for Aluminum a Shaky Outlook for the Global Economy? - January 17, 2019
- Is Indexing Hurting Competition? - January 16, 2019