The latest industrial production numbers were released this morning and they came in below estimates with the prior month revised down. The year-to-year rate of change in industrial production is now -1.75%. In the post WWII period, industrial production has never contracted by 1.75% or more without that contraction being associated with a recession. One data point does not a recession forecast make. And this time could of course be different as the industrial sector is a much smaller part of the economy than it was decades ago, but investors should have their antennae up sensing for signs of more widespread trouble.
Jeremy Jones, CFA
Latest posts by Jeremy Jones, CFA (see all)
- Tech Loses its Biggest Stars - September 21, 2018
- Separate Your Insurance from Your Investments - September 20, 2018
- Augmentation and Replacement: The Future of Robot Workers - September 19, 2018