Have you looked at interest rates lately? 3-month T-Bills are at 0.20%, 3-month CDs 0.38%, money markets 1.29%, 5 year CDs 2.62% and 10-year Treasury bonds are at 3.68%. Compare this to the near peak of the tech bubble ten years ago when the 10-year Treasury was at 6.02%. $1 million in a 10-year Treasury Note paid $60,000 annually. Today it pays $37,000 or 40% less. In retirement your ability to understand income and values are paramount to your investment success. Thinking in terms of 10 year periods allows your portfolio time to breath. And in terms of values, think about each asset class … [Read more...]
Archives for June 2009
The Blue-Chip Triad
June 25, 2009 The Dow Utilities are down 5.0% YTD. The Dow Industrials are down 5.4%. And the cherry on the cake of the 2009 bear market in blue chip stocks is the 11.7% decline in the Dow Transports. The blue-chip triad reflects a number of serious concerns: (1) complete and total incompetence in Washington; (2) the worst world wide economy since the 30’s depression; (3) North Korea, Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq; (4) the prelude to a nasty run up in U.S. interest rates and inflation; (5) at a 3.4% yield (Dow 30) blue chip stocks simply do not offer compelling value. Gold is up YTD, reflecting the … [Read more...]
A Saucer-Like Bottom in Housing
June 16, 2009 As an inference reading based futurist, my goal is to target unfolding trends and the catalysts to effect change. Areas of interest include terrorism, politics, currencies, government, world financial markets, and economies. Most immediately, I think the 17% jump in May housing construction in concert with May’s increase in building permits augers well for a saucer-like bottom in housing. Home builders were definitely less confident in June than they were in the spring. Mortgage rates have been rising and there remains a nasty overhang of unsold homes. As such, the U.S. has now … [Read more...]
One of the Best Leading Economic Indicators
June 12, 2009 The stock market is one of the best leading economic indicators. And investment grade U.S. stocks continue in a Bear market. (1) Dow Jones Industrials, down 0.1% (2) Dow Jones Transportations, down 5.6% (3) Dow Jones Utilities, down 7.6%. By contrast many International Indices are soaring (1) Brazil up 42% (2) Canada up 17% (3) Hong Kong up 26% (4) Japan up 11% and (5) Singapore up 32%. Moreover with a 25 p/e (based on 2009 estimates) and only a 3.3% yield the Blue Chip Dow Industrials simply do not offer compelling value. It is true that the speculative NASDAQ index is up 16% … [Read more...]