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Archives for March 2011

An 87% Win Rate

March 10, 2011 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

The bull market in stocks passed the two-year mark this week. From its low on March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 is up 100%—the fastest 100% gain since the 1930s. On a total-return basis, the S&P 500 is still 9% below its all-time high, but the index has just about recovered all of its losses since year-end 2007. How has your portfolio performed since year-end 2007? Are you back to even, or did the extreme volatility in stocks get the better of you? Having recently updated the performance data for Young Research’s Global Investment Strategy (GIS), I thought you may be interested to learn … [Read more...]

Bullish for Main Street, Bearish for Wall Street

March 4, 2011 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Lots of new data on labor market came out this week. I want to run through a few charts on the more important data points. First is the February ISM manufacturing index. The employment component of the manufacturing index surged to its highest level in almost four decades. The last time hiring intentions in the manufacturing sector were this strong was in 1973. The employment component of the non-manufacturing sector was also strong. My chart shows that non-manufacturing employment intentions reached their highest level since 2006. Jobless claims also improved more than expected … [Read more...]

Saudi Stocks Plunge

March 4, 2011 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Are investors in Saudi Arabia overreacting to geopolitical turmoil in the region or do they know something we don’t? If the Saudis start a revolt, $100 oil will look cheap. U.S. investors might consider giving the price action in Saudi Arabia a bit more weight. … [Read more...]

The Fed vs. the ECB

March 4, 2011 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

I wouldn’t trade the U.S. dollar for the structurally flawed euro, at least not yet, but I would gladly trade Ben Bernanke for the more vigilant European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet. Take a look at the contrasting views on inflation in the statements below. It should be clear after reading this post which central banker would make a better custodian of the value of the dollar. The first is from Bernanke’s prepared remarks in the Fed’s semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress. Emphasis is mine. The rate of pass-through from commodity price increases to broad … [Read more...]

Largest Private-Equity Gains Expected in IPO

March 4, 2011 By E.J. Smith

Thanks to leverage, private-equity investors Bain Capital, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co., Bank of America and the brother of former Senate Majority Leader William Frist are expected to reap one of the largest gains ever from a private equity deal as they plan to take HCA Holdings Inc. public later this month. As is often the case with private-equity deals, they’ve saddled the company with debt while enriching themselves with generous dividend payments. The question now is will they be the only ones to profit or is there anything left for the buyers of the IPO? I believe this one’s dead on … [Read more...]

A Sleep Well(esley) at Night Fund

March 3, 2011 By E.J. Smith

You can be sure that 90% of what you read about retirement investing is either (A) not very helpful or (B) confusing. Yet there are some simple solutions and tools to use that are helpful and easy to understand. One of them is a fund to which I recently made a sizable contribution. But first let’s look at the dismal reality of the 401(k), which most baby boomers will depend on in retirement. Your 401(k) isn’t worth as much as you think it is. That’s because at age 70½ you need to begin making annual withdrawals based on an IRS life expectancy table and pay taxes at your ordinary income … [Read more...]

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