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Archives for March 2019

The Yield Curve Inverted: Time to Panic?

March 29, 2019 By Dick Young

If you have been reading the financial papers or watching CNBC, you have seen the news that the U.S. yield curve has inverted. Typically, this is a sign of a coming recession, and that could be the case today. If, though, you have been following my advice, there is no reason to panic. Have patience and rely on the diversified, counterbalanced portfolio you have built for generating dividends and compound interest. In August of 2013 I explained the power of counterbalancing in your portfolio: Managing a common stock portfolio takes— above all else—patience. Your goal should never be what to … [Read more...]

The Arithmetic of Losses: A 68% drop this Century

March 29, 2019 By E.J. Smith

In his April 2000 issue of Dow Theory Letters, the late-great Richard Russell wrote about the arithmetic of losses noting that Nasdaq had dropped about 68% from the previous year’s peak. To get back to even, he noted, Nasdaq would have to climb more than 170%. As many of you know that didn’t happen for a long-long time. “Note that CNBC,” explains Russell, “and many other sources continue to talk about a stock’s climb in percentages. But this can be misleading and frustrating. Example: you buy a stock for $50. In the bear market it drops to $2—you’ve lost $48 plus commissions. Then you … [Read more...]

Death Comes for the Chinese Electric Vehicle Market

March 29, 2019 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

The Chinese government has signaled a phase out of electric vehicle subsidies that experts are saying will kill off many of the smaller firms in the industry. The country's EV industry has exploded under government support, with 487 manufacturers operating in China last year. Now all that is about to change. Trefor Moss explains in The Wall Street Journal how a mixture of national and local subsidies are to be reduced and eliminated, and what it means for the industry as a whole: Under a Finance Ministry plan released this week, the maximum central-government subsidy for an electric car is … [Read more...]

How Many “Retirees” Will Keep Working?: Half Haven’t Saved a Thing

March 28, 2019 By E.J. Smith

An incredible 48% of Americans aged 55 and older haven't saved a thing for retirement. I've asked the question "How Many “Retirees” Will Keep Working?" and it appears that the answer is, a lot. Despite this disturbing proportion of Americans who haven't saved a bit, the numbers are actually getting better. In 2013 the percent of older Americans who hadn't saved anything was 52%. Bloomberg's Ben Steverman writes: Two in five of such households did have access to a traditional pension, also known as a defined benefit plan. However, 29 percent of older Americans had neither a pension nor any … [Read more...]

Once Hailed as a Panacea, Negative Rates Getting a Skeptical Second Look

March 28, 2019 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

When the ECB instituted a negative rate scheme on banks' excess reserve in the bloc, the idea was supposed to be the key to successfully kick-starting the economy. Now, nearly five years later, the idea doesn't look like it's helping, and it may even be hurting. Tom Fairless reports at The Wall Street Journal: European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled Wednesday that ECB officials are starting to worry about the adverse side effects of negative interest rates, a controversial policy tool introduced by the ECB almost five years ago to encourage European banks to lend. Speaking at … [Read more...]

The World is a Drive-Thru With Xevo and Domino’s

March 28, 2019 By Young Research

You can now order pizza in your car and have it delivered anywhere Domino's will deliver with an automotive commerce platform from Xevo. Food Logistics reports on what may be the next step in the fast food wars: Domino's Pizza is working with Xevo Inc. to launch an ordering platform pre-loaded in cars starting in 2019. The new in-vehicle Domino's app is powered by Xevo Market, an automotive commerce platform for connected cars. "At Domino's, we want pizza ordering to be simple and always within reach, no matter where a customer happens to be," says Chris Roeser, director of digital … [Read more...]

Is Amazon Pulling a Bait and Switch Scheme on You?

March 27, 2019 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

As Amazon grows, and it aims to turn sales into profits, things are changing. Sometimes that means customers aren't always getting what they thought they paid for. One Amazon Prime customer ordered a ladder and a different one arrived... broken. A month later, he was still trying to get a refund. Katherine Bindley explains what's happening in The Wall Street Journal: Mr. Arguello says the seller then told him that to get a refund, Mr. Arguello must destroy the ladder, so no one will get hurt using it. Though it wasn’t a Prime purchase, Amazon intervened after the Journal’s inquiry and … [Read more...]

Is a Four-year College Degree Really the Best Plan in Today’s America?

March 27, 2019 By E.J. Smith

Millennials are burdened with student loans they can't repay, college degrees that don't get them jobs, and no clear path forward. Is a four year college degree really the best plan for America's high school graduates today? The former host of Dirty Jobs, Mike Rowe thinks not. He has started the Mike Rowe Works Foundation to "make work cool again." Here's a little about what Rowe is doing: America has become slowly but undeniably disconnected from the most fundamental elements of civilization—food, energy, education, and the very nature of work itself. Over the last 30 years, America has … [Read more...]

Bad Blood

March 26, 2019 By E.J. Smith

If you want an inside look into how money is lost then read Bad Blood by John Carreyrou. It reads like fiction about blood testing start-up Theranos and its founder Elizabeth Holmes where high profile billionaires and investors with “access” lose every penny invested. Read extended excerpt from Wired here: ALAN BEAM WAS sitting in his office reviewing lab reports when Theranos CEO and founder Elizabeth Holmes poked her head in and asked him to follow her. She wanted to show him something. They stepped outside the lab into an area of open office space where other employees had gathered. At … [Read more...]

Walmart, Amazon and the Retail Arms Race

March 26, 2019 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

In the race for retail domination, Amazon and Walmart are putting increasing emphasis on the ability of shoppers to get what they want, when and where they want it. In a bid to win the high end digital sales war, Walmart has created a new invite only shopping experience called Jetblack. The service provides wealthy online shoppers with the ability to shop via text message, and to rapidly receive what they have ordered, usually the same day. Sarah Nassauer writes for The Wall Street Journal: Epiphany Davis arrived at work in lower Manhattan on a recent morning, consulted her cellphone and set … [Read more...]

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