Apple announced results last night that came in better than Wall Street was anticipating. Instead of reporting a drop of about 10% in quarterly net income on a year-over-year basis, Apple reported 10% growth. Results were driven by higher than expected sales of Macs and iPads. Shouldn’t be a big surprise with so many people working from home. But extrapolating those trends out for more than a quarter or two would be a mistake. A mistake that Wall Street analysts were of course more than willing to make. Taking a short-term trend and extrapolating forever into the future is apparently part … [Read more...]
Archives for July 2020
Retail Investor Mania Appears “Bigger—and Broader” Today than Dotcom Era
You have heard the hype. Everyone is trading stocks at home. What could go wrong? Reporters at The Wall Street Journal write that today's retail investor mania, pumped up by popular trading platforms like Robinhood Markets and E*Trade, appear "even bigger—and broader—this time" than during the dotcom era. For those of you old enough to remember the dotcom bubble burst, that's not a good comparison. They continue: Trades this year by individual investors more than doubled the usual level of retail activity, said Joseph Mecane, head of execution services at market maker Citadel … [Read more...]
Escaping the City Becoming a Bit More Expensive
You may want to escape the city, you're not alone. Many Americans are watching the riots and COVID-19 transmission rates in cities and making the decision to leave that life behind them. The "urban exodus" has begun driving up real estate prices in the suburbs and rural areas surrounding America's metropolises. Tom Olson outlines the effects in a piece at Think Realty, writing: If you are looking for a new place to live these days, the odds are good you have at least considered taking the “country mouse” route and buying a home in a rural area. The odds are also pretty good that a year … [Read more...]
Time to Privatize the Postal Service?
The United States Postal Service just reached an agreement to borrow $10 billion from the U.S. Treasury. The USPS is on an unsustainable track. Declines in first-class and marketing mail volumes are pointed to as the cause. Higher e-commerce deliveries that are more expensive to process are also cited as a culprit. The real problem here is there is no incentive to innovate or drive productivity and efficiency. Privatization via a concession with requirements for delivery set by the federal government looks like a sensible way forward. The Wall Street Journal's Paul Keirnan and Paul … [Read more...]
The Fed Can Fix It
We’ve officially jumped the shark with respect to monetary policy. Joe Biden wants to amend the Federal Reserve Act to push Powell & Co., to use monetary and regulatory policies to fight for racial economic equality. The Fed, as originally envisioned had one goal, and that goal was to be the lender of last resort in a panic. Today’s Fed is viewed as the white-knight for every financial, economic, health, and apparently social problem in America. Recession? The Fed can fix it. Did you borrow too much? The Fed can fix it. Pandemic? The Fed can fix it. Racism? Let’s see … [Read more...]
With Headlines Like These, Is it Any Wonder Americans Are Escaping the City?
You know by now that Americans are rushing to escape the city. They're looking for a better America where they can raise their children, build their businesses, and retire in peace. The Wall Street Journal editorial board listed headlines from last week. Read them below and ask yourself, is it any wonder Americans can't wait to get away? July 21: “Authorities found the charred body of a man in the wreckage of a south Minneapolis pawnshop, nearly two months after the building was torched in the rioting that followed George Floyd’s death.” July 24: “A public hearing Tuesday night was … [Read more...]
Anyone With Success is Fleeing Blue State Cities
"I'm outta here." Those were the words Joe Rogan told his guest Joe De Sena recently. "Here" meant California, where Rogan has lived since 2003. Where is Rogan moving? Texas. Rogan's criteria for choosing his destination: Center of the country Easier to travel to both coasts A little more freedom An uncrowded area Implied in his point "a little more freedom" is the lower--read: zero--income tax rate in Texas. Rogan recently signed a mega-deal to move his popular podcast, The Joe Rogan Experience, to Spotify. The deal is worth $100 million, and moving to Texas could … [Read more...]
Sweden’s Unique Approach to COVID-19 Beats Expectations
Sweden has engineered what looks like a stronger-than-predicted economy in the face of COVID-19. Richard Milne reports for the Financial Times: It was supposed to be a terrible start to the summer. As a debate rages in Sweden over whether its lighter-touch approach to managing coronavirus has been the correct course, most European analysts were braced for dreadful quarterly earnings from the Scandinavian country during the height of the pandemic. But every day for the past two weeks, Swedish company after Swedish company has beaten expectations. From telecoms equipment maker Ericsson to … [Read more...]
My 10 Point Investment Plan: Pretty Much the Same as Back in 1990
Back then I offered subscribers to my investment strategy report a ten-point investment guide for the long term. The basic plan is today, thirty years later, pretty much unchanged. Make capital preservation your number one target Make dividends the cornerstone of your core equity portfolio Never forget the power of compound interest Make equities, not bonds, your core holdings. When general market conditions are horrible, and most folks are selling, aggressively buy your dividend stocks Use automatic withdrawal programs for retirement income Don’t trade in and out … [Read more...]
Gold’s 50-Year Price Explosion
Part I I was there from the start. In early August 1971, I had just joined internationally focused research and trading firm Model Roland & Co. On 15 August 1971, President Nixon shocked the world by announcing that the U. S. would no longer officially trade dollars for gold. At that time, gold’s fixed price was $35/oz. By 1980, gold would hit an astronomical $800/oz. OK then, back to Model and the firm’s wonderful head partner Leo Model. From my first day onboard at Model, I started covering a bevy of major Boston institutional accounts. I was 30 years old, and I would become … [Read more...]
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