When we arrived at the Stock Island marina, just north of Key West, we were anxious. Like the feeling you get when you’re driving to a ski mountain. You’re excited. You’re listening to music. Talking. Then, out of nowhere, you see the steep slopes, the crowds, and you get that feeling in your stomach where it’s too late to turn around. A week earlier, I called Captain Ryan Erickson (referred to me by a client) and asked if he would take us fishing. “Yeah,” he said. “You’re timing is good. Just got in town from my season guiding in Colombia. I’ll have the boat set up by Thursday. See you … [Read more...]
Archives for March 2022
Buying a Car? Don’t Expect a Discount
Negotiating with car dealers is hard enough, after two years of shortages, it's even worse, especially for shoppers looking for less expensive models. David Welch reports for Bloomberg on carmakers' shift toward higher-priced models, and what that means for car buyers. He writes: For decades, transactions in U.S. car dealerships went something like this: A couple walks into a showroom, expresses interest in buying a sedan, the sales rep says, great, our MSRP is $26,000, and the two sides sit down to negotiate the price lower until they settle on a level both can accept. The MSRP, or … [Read more...]
RIP Fidelity’s Edward “Ned” Johnson III
The investing world lost a legend this week with the passing of Edward “Ned” Johnson III. You can read about our history here. When Your Survival Guy Joined the Family Business My Personal View on Fidelity Investments for You Thank You Mr. Johnson Richard Young Reports: 50+ Years with Fidelity and Wellington Rich CEO, Poor CEO? Why Fidelity is Number One Fidelity is Boston and Boston is Fidelity Fidelity Investments: Why it’s #1 The Wall Street Journal's Justin Baer writes of Johnson's life: Edward “Ned” Johnson III, who transformed Fidelity Investments into a … [Read more...]
Your Survival Guy’s Key West Summer Camp in MARCH
OK, Your Survival Guy just got back from a Key West summer camp in March, and it was awesome. Look, it’s been a crazy couple of years for all of us with this Covid debacle, and we all need to step back and ask, “what the heck just happened?” We all need a break. I hope you’re with me. But vacations can be a tricky thing, especially if you’re not the only one taking one or have a full schedule. It’s why one day during our trip, I referred to it as summer camp. But first, my idea of a perfect Key West day starts by getting up without an alarm. That’s followed by walking barefoot to the … [Read more...]
Have Western Economies Become Too Globalized?
In the Financial Times, Oaktree Capital Management co-founder and co-chair, Howard Marks, analyses the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the globalization of western economies, and what the future may hold. He writes: Over recent decades, many industries moved a significant percentage of their production offshore, bringing down costs by using cheaper labour. This process boosted economic growth in the emerging nations where the work was done, increased savings and competitiveness for manufacturers and importers, and provided low-priced goods to consumers. But offshoring also led … [Read more...]
India and China Quietly Eschew Sanctions, Buy Russia’s Oil
Despite international approbation of commerce with Russia, India and China have quietly been buying Russian oil. Bloomberg News reports: China’s oil refiners are discreetly purchasing cheap Russian crude as the nation’s supply continues to seep into the market. Unlike India’s state-run oil refiners, which have issued a number of tenders seeking to buy Russia’s flagship Urals crude among other grades, traders say China’s state processors are negotiating privately under the radar with sellers. The nation’s independent refiners are also quietly buying, according to traders who asked not to be … [Read more...]
“Hey, Survival Guy, Why Are Bond Prices Down?”
In my conversations with you, you’re asking, “Hey, Survival Guy, why are bond prices down? Aren’t they supposed to be our anchor to windward?” “Of course, they are,” I say, “but bond prices decline as interest rates rise.” “Well, don’t take this the wrong way Survival Guy, but isn’t it obvious rates are going higher?” you say. “About as obvious as predicting Covid or the war in Ukraine,” I respond. Look, I’m Your Survival Guy, not Your Hope and a Prayer Guy. I know how ugly stock and bond markets can get, and I don’t get too worked up about temporary declines in prices. Your … [Read more...]
Raising Rates Could Kill Debt-Laden Emerging Markets
Emerging market economies could be at risk as the Federal Reserve begins raising interest rates. Nathaniel Taplin suggests that the Fed could sink emerging markets "again." He writes: When the U.S. central bank starts raising interest rates, emerging markets often begin to submerge again: Their borrowing costs rise, their currencies fall and, to add insult to injury, slower U.S. growth dents demand for their products. Will this time be the same as the era of zero interest rates ends? Much remains uncertain—not least the trajectory of oil prices and war in Ukraine—but it is possible to make … [Read more...]
BIDENFLATION: Yes, Gasoline Prices ARE Rising Faster than Ever
You are not imagining it, prices for gasoline are rising faster than ever before. Not even the devastation of Hurricane Katrina, which caused outages for oil rigs and infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico could rival today's price increases for gasoline. The Wall Street Journal's Kara Dapena reports: As summer driving season approaches, average prices for regular gasoline have been at record highs the past two weeks after going up for 11 straight weeks. Prices reached $4.32 a gallon on March 14, according to weekly figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. They were $4.24 this … [Read more...]
Bond ETF’s Fair Weather Liquidity Poses Risks
In the Financial Times, Tatjana Puhan explains how heavy trading of ETF bond funds could lead to lower liquidity during times of market stress. She writes: The market volatility triggered by the Ukraine war is a reminder that crises can expose hidden stresses and strains that have built up over time in the financial system. Boom time changes to market structures can turn into significant risks when there is an abrupt turn in conditions, particularly when trading liquidity dries up. In that context, investors should note one recent change to the financial plumbing of US markets. The New … [Read more...]
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