Odd things are happening in the economy right now. The most obvious is the recent destruction of oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. But there are also subtler, less obvious warning signs, including the first injections of liquidity into markets by the Fed in 10 years on Tuesday and Wednesday. Couple that with the Fed’s lowering of the Fed Funds rate despite economic growth and low unemployment, and things appear uneasy. These are the times at which it would be easy to make an investment mistake. I wrote in July 1995: “My name’s Marlow. General Sternwood wanted to see me.” Devotees of the … [Read more...]
Witness the Raw Power of Diversification
Diversification isn’t only a tool to minimize losses when assets fall in value, it has the power to actually increase your return while lowering risk. Here’s how I explained it in December of 2015 (with the chart and associated text updated to 2017): Calculating the Efficient Frontier You need to look at your asset deployment from the top down, focusing on diversification between stocks and bonds. My Efficient Frontier display shows you the power of diversification. Note the left-to-right uphill slanting curve that initiates with a position of 100% bonds and terminates with a position of … [Read more...]
With This Plan You Can Save More in 8 Years than in 32 Without It
In October of 1999 I explained why there is only one right way to save; early and often. I wrote: Compound Interest: Your Key to Wealth Here’s an example of the power of compound interest that I hope you will pass on to your children and grandchildren. We have two hypothetical investors, Chad and Tad. Chad starts right out of his MBA program investing $1,200 a year starting at age 25 through the time he is 32-years old. He makes eight $1,200 investments. Chad then oddly becomes a monk, ending his savings days. Assume just a modest 9% annual return through age 64, just pre Chad’s 65-year … [Read more...]
Don’t Be Shaken Out of the Market on Bad News
There are many investment maxims worth repeating, but one especially important today is don’t be shaken out of the market on bad news. Those are the ten words of advice I gave to investors back in June of 1991 in the midst of a recession, and I haven’t found a reason yet to doubt their value. I told readers then: The best time to make money in the business cycle is when recession is in place. Interest rates always decline during a recession, just as they have in the present one. And the stock market always explodes with its biggest cyclical gains during the heart of recession. When was … [Read more...]
Can You Double Your Money in a Year? Fail at this, and You May Need To
Can you double your money in a year? Not many people can. But if you lost 50% of the value of your portfolio, that’s exactly what you would need to do just to make it back to even. If the prospect of trying to double your money sounds unappealing, I suggest you try not to lose that much in the first place. On this topic, I wrote in November 1994: Unchanged Since the Twenties According to BBC television, the Classic Coke bottle, the VW Beetle and AGA Cooker are the three finest industrial design achievements of the 20th century. You know the Classic coke bottle, you know the VW Beetle, … [Read more...]
The Three Best Retirement Decisions I Ever Made
In April of 2004, I explained to readers three decisions about retirement that I was very happy to pass on. I wrote: Long ago, I made three decisions that I am happy to pass on to you regarding retirement: (1) Don’t. (2) Live in a warm weather state. (3) Live in a warm weather state without a state income tax and with a homestead exemption. My clear choice for #2 and #3 was and is Florida. We’ve been homestead exemption Key West residents since 1992. Debbie and I have traversed the complete 360 degrees of Florida. We don’t travel inland much. After all, if the choice is being near the … [Read more...]
The Final Richard C. Young’s Intelligence Report
After meeting monthly strategy report deadlines since 1978, I have decided it’s time to switch gears. The name Intelligence Report will survive, but with no contribution from Richard C. Young. Instead, I am transitioning aggressively to full-time research on behalf of private clients of our family investment management firm, Richard C. Young & Co. Ltd. In this expanded venture, I will completely shift away from common stock mutual funds. I will concentrate laser like on “Dividends Around the World” from domestic and foreign common stocks with track records of increasing dividends … [Read more...]
Dividends Then and Now Are the Answer
I learned from Ben Graham nearly six decades ago that there's no better way to assess an investment than the cold hard cash it returns to you in the form of dividends or interest. In September of 2012 I wrote: While at Babson College, I studied Ben Graham’s Security Analysis. I still return to it regularly. In Chapter 35, Ben Graham writes, “For the vast majority of common stocks, the dividend record and prospects have always been the most important factor controlling investment quality and value…. In the majority of cases, the price of common stocks has been influenced more markedly by the … [Read more...]
My Battle-Hardened Stock Market Strategy for the Worst of Times
In September of 2014, I explained to readers my battle-hardened strategy for dealing with the worst of times in the stock market. My strategy was inspired by Ben Graham, and I have used it throughout my 55-year career in investing. Here’s how it goes: Ben Graham’s The Intelligent Investor was first published in 1949. I came in a little late in the game with my 1973 edition, which I have in front of me as I write. It is important to me that you and all of our management clients are able to sleep well, even during the periodic stock market busts that we all have to ride through from time to … [Read more...]
Retirees Still Cannot Afford a Walloping
With securities markets in a heightened state of volatility, it’s a great time to ask yourself how exposed your portfolio is to risk. Most investors, if asked, would be able to provide little detail about the risks to their portfolio. If you find yourself unable to answer, that’s ok. It’s Not Too Late, Yet Now is the time to begin assessing the risk in your investment portfolio. If your holdings are not balanced to help you achieve your goals, you should begin shifting them as soon as possible, because, as I wrote in April 2017, retirees cannot afford a walloping. Retirees Cannot Afford a … [Read more...]
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