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Hey, Where’s Everyone Going? Follow the Money Kid

March 7, 2023 By E.J. Smith

If you want to know what’s going on in the world, just follow the money. That’s what I do. Take a look at the money exodus from states that treat residents like piggy banks. Remember, money travels to where it’s well treated. Just follow the money. If this was forwarded to you. Join the club. Sign Up here for my weekly email. Art Laffer and Stephen Moore, co-founders of the Committee to Unleash Prosperity, share the numbers in this WSJ piece (abridged): Lawmakers in California, Illinois, New York and Washington state have proposed new taxes on wealth, and higher income taxes for the … [Read more...]

Are Rising Rates Endangering Small Town Budgets?

March 7, 2023 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Many small towns use short-term borrowing to pay bills between revenue collections. Higher rates could be threatening that finance model. Heather Gillers reports for The Wall Street Journal: Rising interest rates are squeezing cash-strapped towns and school systems that use short-term borrowing to keep cash flowing while they wait for property tax dollars to come in. A-rated cities and school districts are paying 3.16% for a one-year loan issued March 3, compared with 0.21% at the beginning of 2022, according to data from Refinitiv MMD. In places where local budgets are already burdened by … [Read more...]

Take Action: Don’t Wait for the Best to Save You

March 6, 2023 By E.J. Smith

Wouldn’t it be a shame if, five years from now, you’re earning peanuts on your savings? That’s a real risk. Because if the Fed backs itself into a corner, the economy gets into a pickle (and who knows what else), it may be forced to cut rates. At least, that’s what the talking heads are saying. You know I don’t like predicting interest rates. Predictions are cheap. Everyone has one. And they’re not a worthwhile endeavor. I’m Your Survival Guy, not “Mr. What If This Happens.” I like to take action based on what’s in front of me. And what I’m seeing now are attractive enough rates that … [Read more...]

Tesla Is Dropping Its Prices

March 6, 2023 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Tesla has announced price cuts for two of its vehicles, the Model S and the Model X. Alyssa Lukpat reports The Wall Street Journal: Tesla Inc. decrease; red down pointing triangle lowered the prices of two of its most expensive models in the U.S., the Model S and Model X, in its latest round of price cuts as the company tries to boost demand in a competitive market. Tesla dropped the base price of its Model S luxury sedan from $94,990 to $89,990, which is about a 5% cut, according to the company’s website. Tesla lowered the base price of its Model X sport-utility vehicle from $109,990 to … [Read more...]

When Is the Best Time for You to Do This?

March 3, 2023 By E.J. Smith

“Life’s short,” my grandfather would say. “You’re only here for a visit.” He didn’t say it to me. I was too young when he passed away. He said it to my dad, who just turned 79. My grandfather would also ask my dad when he was starting out in business, “Do you know when the best time is to plant a tree?” And that got passed down to me. I never liked that one. “Yesterday,” I’d respond, feeling the pressure of not doing whatever it was I was supposed to do yesterday. “That’s right. Do you know when the next best day is to plant a tree?” “Today,” I’d say, feeling like, what’s … [Read more...]

Global Liquidity Is Increasing Despite the Fed

March 3, 2023 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Despite efforts by the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and the Bank of England to decrease global liquidity, it is increasing instead and driving investors into riskier assets. Joseph Adinolfi reports for MarketWatch: Gains for global equities have left many on Wall Street perplexed as stocks — especially high-risk growth names with little or no profits — have rebounded from last year’s punishing selloff, resisting both the pull of more attractive bond yields, and the threat of higher interest rates. But some Wall Street analysts say they’ve found an explanation that has little to … [Read more...]

You’ve Answered Life’s Questions. But What about Investing in Bonds?

March 2, 2023 By E.J. Smith

Do you remember purchasing your first home? Meeting with the bank? Going over interest rates and how much goes to just paying it? Reviewing the payment schedule and realizing how old you’ll be when it’s paid off? Talk about a bond between you and the bank. But when it comes to bonds and investing, I hear this: “I don’t invest in bonds. I don’t understand them.” But you’ve been in a bond your whole life. Just turn the table around. You’re the bank. Yes, there’re ins and outs to bonds that make experience dealing with them worthwhile, but the same is true for getting a mortgage. … [Read more...]

Are You with Someone Who’s Been Cookin’ for Decades?

March 1, 2023 By E.J. Smith

You may be surprised, dear reader, but Your Survival Guy doesn't spend much time thinking about how much "I" can make in the markets. I spend my time thinking about how to hide. How to protect my assets. Because I know a swooping black swan is looking to take them. And yet, time and time again, it's the investor, like the frog in a soon to be boiling pot, who is lulled to sleep in the good times only to be whacked when markets turn down. And they are always picked off. Picked off out of nowhere, wondering what in the heck just happened. "But I was diversified in an index fund," they … [Read more...]

China Hopes Recovery Dims Memories of Zero COVID Debacle

March 1, 2023 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

China's communist government found itself in trouble with its people when it became apparent just how damaging its misguided "zero COVID" policies were. Now the government is hoping a rapid economic recovery will be able to paper over its embarrassing COVID performance. Stella Yifan Xie and Keith Zhai report in The Wall Street Journal: Economic activity in China expanded sharply for a second straight month, in an early sign the country may be shaking off the impact of pandemic curbs sooner than expected. A gauge of manufacturing rose at the fastest pace in more than a decade in February, … [Read more...]

When the Black Swan Swoops In for You

February 28, 2023 By E.J. Smith

A word of caution, dear investor, about money market funds: they’re not all created equal. In fact, when it comes to your lazy cash, you want to treat it with kid gloves. There’s a reason it’s on your couch. The world’s a dangerous place. Yes, you want to get it into the big wide world to do something productive with its life. But you also don’t want it coming home one day saying: “I gambled, and I owe Mr. Big $20k. Can you help?” Back when the financial crisis unfolded, Lehman Brothers failed, panic set in, and money markets “broke the buck” (trading below a net asset value of $1). But … [Read more...]

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