After three months of falling retail sales, there are warning signs showing in the market for consumer discretionary goods. Consumer confidence is still high, but if it begins to tail off, it could spell trouble for a sector that has been powering the economy. Keris Lahiff reports for CNBC: Consumer spending has already shown the beginnings of a slowdown. Retail sales in February fell for a third month in a row, a surprise to economists looking for a slight gain and its longest stretch of declines since 2012. Fourth-quarter sales were at their strongest in seven years. "The consumer is far … [Read more...]
Millennials Still Aren’t Forming Families
Writing at Bloomberg, Peter Coy examines why, despite the second-longest economic expansion on record, Millennials, whose family formation was suppressed by the Financial Crisis, still aren't forming families. Coy writes: One possible explanation is that the economy’s good health masks continued hard times for men and women in their 20s and early 30s, who are responsible for most baby-making. “This young generation, millennials, I think they still feel pretty uncertain, as if they can’t afford to make this big long-term commitment” to raising a family, says Karen Guzzo, a sociologist at … [Read more...]
A Warning for the Global Economy
The WSJ Logistics Report raises the red flag on a major warning sign for the global economy. Copper, known as Dr. Copper for having a Ph.D. in economics, has begun falling in price, even while other commodities are rising. Another early indicator of the direction of the world economy, the Baltic Dry Index, has plummeted as well. See my charts below on both. The WSJ reports: Warning signs for the global economy are being drawn in copper. After hitting a high of nearly four years in 2017, copper prices have slumped this year even as prices for other commodities have been rising. That’s a … [Read more...]
What Does Growing Chaos in Venezuela Mean for its Economy?
After Nicolas Maduro's win in the recent Venezuelan "election," The Wall Street Journal examines what that could mean for the nation facing growing chaos. The election, which drew the lowest turnout for a Venezuelan presidential vote since the 1950s, leaves Mr. Maduro with little legitimacy, particularly as hyperinflation hollows out the economy and an estimated 5,000 Venezuelans flee the country every day. The U.N. expects up to 1.8 million people to leave by year-end, swamping Colombia, Brazil and other neighbors and creating South America’s worst refugee crisis in modern times. For many … [Read more...]
America Records Lowest Birth Rates in 30 Years
In 2017, the United States recorded its lowest birth rate in 30 years. Population growth was the second lowest in 79 years, only slightly higher than 2013. Bloomberg reports: The number of births in the U.S. declined for the third year in a row in 2017 to 3,853,472, the lowest level since 1987, the National Center for Health Statistics reported Thursday. Births were down 2 percent, or 92,403, from 2016. The birth rate for women aged 15 to 39 declined from 2016 to 2017 but rose in that same time period for those aged 40 to 44. Teenage birth rates fell 7 percent from 2016 to a record low … [Read more...]
This American City’s Economy is Humming like it’s 1955
Reporting for The Wall Street Journal, Bob Davis finds that Elkhart, Indiana is a modern day boomtown. With an economy built on the RV industry, the surge in demand for motorhomes, coupled with faster economic growth is driving labor shortages and increased pay in the small city. Davis writes: ELKHART, Ind.—The self-proclaimed RV capital of the world gives a glimpse of what the American economy looks like when operating at full tilt. High-school students around here skip college for factory jobs that offer great pay and benefits. For-hire signs sprout like roadside weeds. And workers … [Read more...]
Job Market Booms
The job market is booming. There is now a job opening for almost every unemployed American. Regulatory reform and a massive corporate tax cut have no doubt helped bigly 😉. This is the best job market in two decades, and the highest number of job openings to the number of unemployed since the Labor Department started keeping track on a regular basis. Based on the historical relationship, it shouldn’t be long before wage growth starts accelerating. … [Read more...]
After US Iran Deal Withdrawal, Economic Horse Trading Begins
Leaders of EU countries are already attempting to limit the effects of fresh US sanctions on European businesses. After President Donald Trump announced America's withdrawal from the JCPOA (a.k.a. the Iran nuclear deal), EU leaders immediately began attempting to salvage the agreement. Anne-Sylvaine Chassany, Michael Peel and Tobias Buck report: EU leaders said they would press Washington to exempt European companies from fresh US sanctions as transatlantic tensions spiked over President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal. French officials said on Wednesday they … [Read more...]
Lowest Unemployment in 18 Years
Today's employment report from the BLS recorded the lowest unemployment since 2000. CNBC reports: The unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent in April, an 18-year low, even as nonfarm payrolls rose by just 164,000, according to a report Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected payroll growth of 192,000 and the jobless rate to drop by one-tenth of a percent to 4.0 percent. The official jobs tally showed an increase from an upwardly revised 135,000 in March. Read more here. … [Read more...]
America Exports More than Ever Before in March
America's trade deficit shrank for the first time in 10 months in March thanks to exports that were the highest in the nation's history. Paul Wiseman reports for the AP: The Commerce Department says the trade deficit — the difference between what America sells and what it buys in foreign markets — slid to $49 billion, down from $57.7 billion in February and lowest since September. Trump has vowed to bring down America's massive deficits, which he blames on bad trade agreements and abusive practices by U.S. trading partners. Exports rose in March to a record $208.5 billion, led by … [Read more...]
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