According to the IMF, the world's GDP will grow faster than earlier projections. Half of the additional growth will be attributable to the tax cut signed by the Trump administration. The IMF wrote: Global economic activity continues to firm up. Global output is estimated to have grown by 3.7 percent in 2017, which is 0.1 percentage point faster than projected in the fall and ½ percentage point higher than in 2016. The pickup in growth has been broad based, with notable upside surprises in Europe and Asia. Global growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 have been revised upward by … [Read more...]
Is Europe Primed for GDP Strength?
Compared to the last half decade, last year's German GDP numbers came in strong. Is Germany's strength a sign that Europe could be about to turn around and show signs of serious growth? Or is this an anomaly? Todd Buell and Paul Hannon write: The pickup in growth across the eurozone in 2017 has made policy makers at the European Central Bank more confident that they will reach their inflation target over coming years. The central bank is cutting monthly bond purchases under a stimulus program known as quantitative easing to €30 billion ($35.8 billion) from €60 billion. The acceleration in … [Read more...]
Are Smart Phones Killing Your Productivity?
One would think having a pocket-sized computer as one’s disposable would improve productivity, but since the advent and popularization of the smartphone, productivity growth has sagged. Coincidence? Maybe, but some surveys show that we check our phones as many as 150 times per day. Couple that with the fact that it can take 20-25 minutes to get back on track after an interruption and the claim that smartphones contribute to slower productivity doesn’t sound so crazy. The FT reports on this in an article today. To wit: The costs of this distraction are starting to become apparent. I … [Read more...]
Will France Succeed in Privatization Drive?
The next time you fly into Paris, you may be landing at a privatized airport. That's the plan of the administration of President Emmanuel Macron. The new president and his allies want to privatize a large chunk of the 81 companies in which the government has ownership stakes. They appear to be focused on Aéroports de Paris (ADP), operator of Paris Charles de Gaulle and Orly airports as a starting place. David Keohane reports in FT: France owns 50.6 per cent of ADP, which has a market capitalisation of €15.6bn. The next largest shareholder is Vinci, the French construction and infrastructure … [Read more...]
The Emotional Toll of the Great Recession
Despite years of distance between today and the depths of the Great Recession, many retirees and savers are still feeling the pain. Lydia Depillis, writing for CNNMoney details the despair some Americans are still in. A business lost, a life reinvented Landscape architect Dan Donohue and his wife, who ran marketing and accounting for their small firm in Batavia, Illinois, had been through downturns before in his 25 years of experience. But the Great Recession, which brought to a halt the real estate development they counted on, knocked them out. With no business and four young kids to … [Read more...]
Where are Americans Moving?
The United Van Lines 2017 National Movers Survey shows that Americans are fleeing states like Illinois, New Jersey, New York and Connecticut and heading for places like Vermont, Oregon, Idaho and Nevada. The survey has been using household moves by United Van Lines has been conducted since 1977 as a way to gauge the amount of inbound and outbound traffic to each state. United Van Lines wrote in their analysis of the results: As a region, the Mountain West continues to increase in popularity with 54 percent of moves being inbound. The West is represented on the high-inbound list by Oregon (65 … [Read more...]
The Single Biggest Risk Facing Global Markets in 2018
What is the single biggest risk facing global markets in 2018? According to Deutsche Bank’s chief international economist the biggest risk is the end of European quantitative easing. The FT has a feature on the potentially profound impact that the end of central bank support will have on bond markets. The coming year promises to be an inflection point for central banks. The Fed has started reducing the pile of the bonds it acquired after the financial crisis — a process that will accelerate. The ECB started to trim its QE programme in 2017 and is expected to end it altogether in 2018. Even … [Read more...]
Is College the Best America Can Do for its Students?
In today's job market it's hard to find any well paying job that doesn't require some level of college education. But should it be that way? In Switzerland apprenticeships serve to put young people into jobs immediately upon entering the workforce. How many unproductive years of college and even grad school must American students endure before entering the workforce for jobs Swiss youths are doing straight out of high school? Switzerland is one of the most competitive nations, and home to the world's most Fortune 500 companies per capita. At the Financial Times, Ralph Atkins explains why … [Read more...]
The Economy Hasn’t Done this in Over a Decade
According to the Atlanta Fed GDP Now Forecast, economic growth in the fourth quarter is on pace to surpass 3% for the third consecutive quarter. As you can see in the chart below, the American economy hasn’t put together three consecutive quarters of 3% plus growth in over a decade. Burdensome regulation and anti-business sentiment apparently had a bigger impact on the economy than many assumed. The economy has grown at such a subdued rate for so long that economists started to assume the U.S. wasn’t capable of growing at 3% again. Three percent is above average growth with today’s … [Read more...]
Is the Fed the Biggest Risk to the Economy?
Phil Gramm and Thomas Saving write in the Wall Street Journal on the challenges the Fed will be faced with as economic growth returns to normal. To compensate for stifling regulation and misguided economic policies that held back growth during the Obama years, the Fed went full-bore on monetary stimulus. And it didn’t just stimulate during the depths of the last recession. Short-term rates were effectively held at zero until 2016, there were three quantitative easing programs, a twist program to force down long-term rates, and regular jawboning. What does the Fed have to show for its … [Read more...]
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