Sourcing Journal reports on the deep dive in imports of denim from China, and on which countries are picking up the business. Arthur Friedman writes: Imports from China declined a staggering 67.54 percent year to date through April to $74.3 million, bringing the once-dominant country down to a third-place, 15.55 percent market share after a 41.88 percent decline over the 12 months. Imports from China have been in a long-term downward spiral since the trade war with the U.S. brought on significant tariffs and uncertainty, and caused many companies to shift production out of the … [Read more...]
Trump Cavalcade Drives America Back to Business
Debbie and I have traveled up the East Coast countless times over the last many decades. On every trip, we take inventory of the health of America's small-town Main Streets, pedestrian activity in towns, and truck activity on the highways, among many other inference reading signals. Last Friday we were traveling again. That day, news dropped of the record-setting job gains in May. The stock market soared, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up 829.16 points. While liberal economists like Paul Krugman wrote the report off as a conspiracy theory, the evidence of America's jobs … [Read more...]
Larry Kudlow: Director of the White House National Economic Council
Your Survival Guy is a big fan of Larry Kudlow, director of the White House National Economic Council. This week, the WSJ’s Andy Kessler writes: “In the grip of the world-wide recession, we must all stick to anti-inflationary, high-productivity policies that adapt new technology, retrain workers, and increase efficiency.” Who said that? Donald Trump? Angela Merkel? Emmanuel Macron? Nope, that was Ronald Reagan in May 1983, speaking on the eve of the Williamsburg Economic Summit of Industrialized Nations. Now, the off-again, on-again Group of Seven meeting scheduled for June is off until … [Read more...]
Do Stocks Always Beat Bonds Over the Long Run?
The WSJ reports on new work that shows historically investment-grade bonds have beaten stocks in 40% of ten year periods. What’s more, in many 10-year periods the return on bonds is only about a percentage point less than the return on stocks. With Treasury bond yields nearing rock bottom levels, it would seem to be a cinch for stocks to beat Treasuries over the coming decade, but today’s historically lofty stock valuations make the calculus more complicated. And if you are willing to venture beyond the safety of Treasuries, the return opportunities in corporate bonds aren’t as depressed as … [Read more...]
Your Retirement Life: Run from Shiny Happy People
Let’s start with our bank of bad habits, shall we? The most common one I see is the annuity. How do they even get into a portfolio? I’ll tell you. “Well,” a prospective client might say, “I had a cousin who told me about that one.” Or, “It was sold to me years ago by some guy. I don’t remember his name.” Or, “My employer brought in this company to give us a presentation.” You get the idea. When investors are young and start making a little scratch, they don’t spend time researching investments. They’re too tired. They don’t have time. They trust who they’re talking with. Plus, the kids are … [Read more...]
The #1 Reason to Oppose Bailouts
Bill Dudley, the former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is out with an op-ed in Bloomberg expanding on what the Fed’s bailouts mean going forward. Dudley points out the problems with bailouts. His solution is unfortunately the very reason bailouts must be opposed in the first place. It won’t be long before the likes of Liz Warren and her allies seek retribution for the bailouts in the form of higher corporate taxes, tighter regulation, and outright bans on certain activities. And to be honest, its hard to argue that leveraged hedge funds and leveraged mortgage REITs are … [Read more...]
Here’s How Tiny Sweden Beat China
Tiny remote Sweden, partially sitting in the polar region, is home to only a little over 10 million souls. China, meanwhile, is a massive country, home to nearly 1.4 billion. You may not think Sweden would have the wherewithal to defeat China in any theater of competition, but in one growing industry, Sweden is prepared to dominate its Chinese rival. In the race for 5G technology leadership, Sweden’s Ericsson may be about to best China’s Huawei. Or, more accurately, Huawei’s ties to China’s Communist Party government are about to blow the technology company’s chances of a worldwide 5G … [Read more...]
Another Reason I don’t Like Municipal Bonds
The Federal Reserve has now become the lender of last resort to the nation's most mismanaged states and cities. This is just one more reason I don't like municipal bonds. Heather Gillers and Nick Timiraos report in The Wall Street Journal: The Federal Reserve said it would again broaden the number of local governments eligible for a new lending program as Illinois announced it would be the first borrower to access the facility. The central bank said Wednesday it would allow all 50 states to designate two cities or counties to sell debts directly to the central bank’s program, creating an … [Read more...]
Multi-Channel is the Only Way Forward for Retailers
In retail, companies with strong e-commerce platforms fared much better than those lacking a strong online presence. Dick’s Sporting goods was one of the relative winners in brick and mortar retail. Dick’s made investments in its online platform pre-COVID that allowed the firm to roll out a curbside pick up a few days after the company closed all of its stores. Sales were still down 30% year-over-year in the quarter, but it could have been worse. Kohl’s reported sales down 45% for the quarter. The Coronavirus crisis should be a wakeup call to all brick and mortar retailers. Being able to … [Read more...]
Your Retirement Life: Bankrupt in Two Weeks
When an investment sounds "too good to be true” we immediately know the refrain. Why then do investors get stuck in this trap time after time? Because it’s those who can’t afford to lose money who take the biggest hits. Which reminds me, by the way, who can afford to lose money? No one. When investors look for the market to do something for them, they are immediately placed on a slippery slope. When investors sell out of the market they now need Mr. Market to help them make up for their losses. Then, along comes an investment product with a fancy gimmick that appears to be fail-proof. And … [Read more...]
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