Microsoft's cloud computing service boosted sales in the fourth quarter by 39%. Angus Loten reports at The Wall Street Journal that the company's success has come from its advantage in understanding large corporations. He writes: The success rests on its technology, combined with an understanding of complex enterprises’ software needs. The company over a period of decades has developed the ability to understand large corporations. This has enabled Microsoft to develop a range of technologies that allows customers to consolidate their purchases with a familiar source. At the same time, it has … [Read more...]
Is There Room for Growth in Presidential Election Year Markets?
Yesterday, I explained the past performance in equities markets during each year of the presidential election cycle. I also noted that the tradition of strong performance during the year before and of the election have broken down somewhat this century. With that in mind, I'd like you to look at the so-called Buffett Valuation Indicator, known as a tool Warren Buffett uses for getting a feel for market under- or over-valuation. The tool is simple, it's the market cap of American stock markets divided by the country's GDP. The higher the ratio, the more likely markets are overvalued, and … [Read more...]
The Next Revolution in Mobile Phones May Be Dumber Phones
Have you recently paid $1,000 or more for a fully loaded smartphone that can do it all? If you're like many Americans, the answer is probably yes. the prices people are paying for smartphones has skyrocketed. But those expensive phones still aren't available to many people around the world who simply don't earn enough to afford the high price. In places where people can't afford high end smart phones, a new trend is occurring, the rise of what are known as "smart feature phones." These are phones with features similar to a smartphone, but without all the bells and whistles. Newley Purnell … [Read more...]
What the Presidential Election Cycle Tells Us about Stocks
As you can see below, the years prior to a presidential election, and the election year itself, tend to be good for stocks as candidates make promises for a new tomorrow. Then, after the honeymoon is over, reality sets in and the bills come due. But twice this century, in 2000 and 2008, stock market performance during election years was not good at all, as hanging chads and “hope and change” polarized investors. And the years before the elections were not much to write home about either. America is currently in the year before a presidential election and, so far, markets are … [Read more...]
Arnott on FANG Stocks “You Would Have to Use Implausible Assumptions to Justify Today’s Price”
Research Affiliates' Rob Arnott tells Bloomberg that "You would have to use implausible assumptions to justify today's price," in reference to markets. He also specifically calls out Tesla and Netflix as "zombie companies." Then Arnott slams down on the valuations of the "FANMAG" companies, noting that their combined valuation is greater than that of entire national markets, saying “If you count up the whole roster of FANMAG companies, that’s the Fang stocks plus Apple, plus Microsoft, their aggregate market value exceeds every market in the world except Japan and the U.S. That’s strange. … [Read more...]
Your Retirement Life: Escaping the Heat Wave
You may have experienced a heat wave this summer. Ours was this weekend, all over New England with temps in the 90s and the “real feel” reaching the low 100s. It was a scorcher. There’s no beating the heat, but going out on the boat is a nice break. In the first video I’ll show you what it feels like to leave Newport at cruising speed, with Castle Hill off the port side, the Newport bridge to stern, and Jamestown, RI to starboard (pardon my finger it was hard to hold the phone). In the next video we’re approaching Mattapoisett harbor. You’ll see Ned’s Point lighthouse off … [Read more...]
The Retail Robot War Has a New Front: Groceries
One of the more critical steps Amazon took in securing its lead in the e-commerce race was the purchase of Kiva Systems, which built robots designed to speed up warehouse processes. Since then, competitors have been looking for their own robotic advantages. With Amazon entering the grocery business with its purchase of Whole-Foods, Kroger, America's largest supermarket chain, is getting into the mix with its own robot offensive. Bloomberg's Sarah Halzack reports: Kroger Co., the giant but aging supermarket chain, has unleashed a flurry of initiatives to ensure it won’t get thumped in … [Read more...]
Four Questions You Should Ask Before Investing in Stocks
Investing wisely demands due diligence. While there are certainly thousands of variables affecting any investment decision, narrowing down your focus with some broad questions can help you get started. In August of 2003, I encouraged investors to start with these four questions. I wrote: Ask These Four Questions As I’ve written, the first four questions I ask about a company concern dividend increases, share decreases, debt reductions, and cash accumulations. Many managements decry each of my benchmarks, pleading that the reinvestment of cash is best for shareholders long-term; that actual … [Read more...]
Are you Part of the Herd Inflating the Indexing Bubble?
The WSJ's Dawn Lim reports that after a temporary lull, the flood of money moving into passively managed index funds and ETFs has resumed. Lim writes: A decadelong shift of money and power from old-fashioned money managers into index funds resumed its march in 2019. Last year, net inflows into funds that track markets fell about 30% from the year before, according to Morningstar data. Some firms said fears around slowing global growth and a particularly volatile stock market led investors to take money from asset management’s most popular products. The 2018 slowdownwas … [Read more...]
Are You Fully Invested?
Do you remember how you felt about your portfolio in December? It wasn’t a happy time for stock investors as they watched values crater. Some investors got out of the market all together and felt much better. But they probably missed this incredible stock market of the first half of 2019. Feeling good about investment decisions is oftentimes not good for your portfolio. Everyone wants to be a contrarian. Everyone wants to be the guy that swims against the tide. The one who chooses her own path. But when you know what hits the fan they look for comfort and sell, sell, … [Read more...]
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