In the past I've written about the usefulness of applying some math and statistics to sports. The best explanation for such benefits was Michael Lewis' book, Moneyball. The book details the methods employed by Oakland A's general manager Billy Beane to improve the team's performance. Now, Jon Hartley reports on the use of behavioral economics by the Cleveland Browns to improve from 2017's sad 0-16 losing record to 2018's 7-8-1 record, one of the biggest single-season improvements in NFL history. No surprise here, there's a big time Billy Beane connection. Hartley writes: The turnaround was … [Read more...]
Earnings Predictions Scare Investors
Earnings growth has begun to slow, and investors are getting worried. Justin Lahart reports for The Wall Street Journal: The earnings slowdown owes something to last year’s corporate tax cut reaching its anniversary date: Credit Suisse strategist Jonathan Golub calculates that the tax cut added about 7 percentage points to earnings growth in the fourth quarter. The slowdown also owes something to one big company: Apple . First-quarter estimates for the iPhone maker, which accounted for over 4% of S&P 500 net income last year, have come down sharply since the company issued a … [Read more...]
Build Your Investment Strategy for the Field of Play
Are you a trader or speculator? Or are you long term investor saving for a comfortable retirement? What’s your field of play? In December of 2011 I wrote to readers explaining that each sport is dependent on the field of play. Coaches and players enter the game with a clear understanding of what they are trying to achieve, and the area within which they are trying to achieve it. Does that describe your current investment planning picture? If not, your first step is understanding your field of play. I wrote: Football, baseball, soccer, hockey—each has something in common that can be … [Read more...]
Can America Afford the Green New Deal?
The short answer is, no. The Green New Deal is a pie in the sky statement of Utopian dreams. The resolution calls for rebuilding every American building, ending all traditional forms of energy production within ten years, building trains across the oceans with capacity great enough to replace all air travel, and other similarly unachievable measures. The renewable energy generation measures alone would cost around $5.7 trillion. The 14 page resolution's other demands would cost many trillions of dollars more, and would impose hardship on every American family by forcing them to renovate … [Read more...]
Germany Doesn’t Like Facebook’s Data Collection
Germany has begun a crackdown on internet companies by telling Facebook it may no longer collect data about users across the internet without their consent. The move is a direct hit to Facebook's business model. Sam Schechner and Sara Germano report for The Wall Street Journal: Germany ordered Facebook FB -0.70% to stop combining data it collects about users’ activities across the internet without their consent, a novel application of competition law that strikes at a cornerstone of the social-media giant’s business model. In a decision issued Thursday, Germany’s Federal Cartel Office, the … [Read more...]
Can Businesses Survive California’s Rapid-Fire Law Creation?
In 2019, 1,016 new laws will take effect in California. How are businesses supposed to navigate such rapid fire law creation? With the nation's second highest minimum wage (tied with Massachusetts at $11.00/hour), its highest income tax rates at 13.3%, and a dead last ranking in the Small Business Policy Index for the least friendly laws for business, California is already a tough place to pursue the American dream. Now businesses and citizens of the Golden State will have an even greater regulatory burden to navigate. At The Hill, Timothy Snowball writes: The California Legislature’s … [Read more...]
Bank Bulk Up: BB&T Buys SunTrust
In a move to compete with the larger tier of banks, BB&T will acquire SunTrust Bank in the largest banking merger in a decade. In the press release discussing the deal, management was focused on cutting costs by closing brick and mortar locations, while putting increased funding into the combined bank's digital operations. Bloomberg's Hannah Levitt reports: Industry executives have long predicted a wave of bank mergers that until Thursday had played out only in smaller or midsize deals. Brian Moynihan, chief executive officer of Bank of America Corp., said last month he could envision the … [Read more...]
Mall Space: From Retail to Logistics
With American shopping malls suffering from growing use of e-commerce by shoppers, store space that has been vacated by bankrupt retailers is being converted to space for other types of tenants. Among those new lessees are the logistics operations of the very e-commerce companies beating brick and mortar retailers into submission. CNBC's Lauren Thomas reports: An old Toys R Us store in Milwaukee is now home to Engine & Transmission Exchange, a remanufacturer for car parts. Meanwhile, six dead malls across the U.S. are either in the process of being turned into or have been revamped as … [Read more...]
Where Did all the Investors Go?
Volatility speculation (and hedging) seems to be in fashion. Take the ProShares Ultra Short-term VIX ETF for example. The fund seeks to deliver 1.5X the performance of the short-term VIX futures contract. The fund isn’t terribly large with only $300 million in assets, but consider these volume figures. In 2016, the ETF traded 51 million shares. In 2017, volume increased to 814 million shares. Then last year, volume soared to over 2 billion shares. At an average price of about $60 per share, the dollar volume of the ETF was about $120 billion, or 400X the assets in the fund. You read that … [Read more...]
Canadian Crypto-currency Debacle
“A Canadian cryptocurrency exchange says about $140 million worth of customers’ holdings are stuck in an electronic vault because the company’s founder, and sole employee, died without sharing the password,” reports Paul Vigna at the WSJ. On Jan. 15, the company announced on its website that Mr. Cotten had died on Dec. 9 from complications related to Crohn’s disease while building an orphanage in India. He was 30 years old. Two weeks later, the exchange filed for bankruptcy protection in a Nova Scotia court. Quadriga said its customers have accounts with a total balance of about C$250 … [Read more...]
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