I've been keenly interested in the investment theme surrounding vigorous competition between states. But when I look at Rhode Island and compare it to Texas or North Dakota, I ask is it even a competition? It's not even close. The WSJ ran a piece yesterday discussing the pressures put on the infrastructure in Texas from the inflow of new residents. Sounds like a business opportunity to me rather than a problem. Which states attract new residents and businesses? It makes sense to partner up with them. Americans have flocked to Texas in search of a piece of the state's booming economy as much … [Read more...]
Archives for April 2014
Billionaire Larry Ellison’s $10.5 Million Newport, RI Beechwood Mansion
In 2010, Larry Ellison paid $10.5 million for the Astors' Beechwood mansion on Bellevue Ave in Newport, RI not far from my office. And based on all of the heavy duty staging, Ford F-150s, and workers (that I can see) $10.5 mil is simply the price for admission. Larry’s going deep on this one. Meanwhile, homes in Newport have a median price of $421,000 according to Trulia.com. Who needs the Fed? Newport and other desirable markets like Manhattan are fine without the Fed. That raises the question; how much has the Fed really helped less desirable markets with all of its money printing? The … [Read more...]
Housing Slowdown: The Explanation You Haven’t Heard
There have been many explanations of the apparent slowdown in the housing market over recent months. If you haven’t been following the news on housing, new home sales fell 14% last month and have stagnated since early 2013. Existing home sales also dipped in March and on a seasonally adjusted basis they are down nearly 15% since July of last year. The Federal Reserve says it must be higher mortgage rates that have dented housing demand. Others attribute the softness in housing to demographic factors. And some think falling demand can be explained by harsh winter weather. While … [Read more...]
MLPs and IRS
The Wall Street Journal on the potential, or lack thereof, for MLP audits: Is your investment too complicated to be audited? It could be, say experts, if it is a partnership stake in a large private-equity firm, hedge fund or master limited partnership. Examples include publicly traded partnerships such as Blackstone Group BX -2.88% and KKR & Co., KKR -2.87% oil and gas MLPs such as Magellan Midstream Partners MMP -1.26% or Kinder Morgan Energy Partners,KMP -0.47% and many privately held large partnerships as well. The Internal Revenue Service reviewed the books and records of only … [Read more...]
History Repeats Itself
BlackRock reports that investors are saying they’re risk averse while piling back into stocks. As recently as last summer and fall, respondents to BlackRock’s Global Investor Pulse Survey indicated that they held nearly half of their portfolio in cash and intended to increase that exposure over the coming year. More recent surveys tell a similar story. But despite perceptions that investors hold a lot of cash and are still quite risk averse, my team’s analysis of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest data on household financial assets suggests a somewhat different reality. According to the … [Read more...]
These Guys Missed the Real Estate Crash
Not much has changed in the bond ratings world. The three major ratings agencies completely missed the real estate crash. And today they operate as if it never happened. Timothy Martin reports here. Six years after getting a failing grade for their role in the financial crisis, credit-rating firms are at the top of the class. Riding a global bond boom, the two biggest U.S. firms, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services and Moody's Investors Service, MCO +0.25% this month are expected to post record first-quarter profits. Fitch Ratings said in its annual filing this month that 2013 was "one … [Read more...]
$1 Million Ain’t What it Used to Be
USA Today on what a million dollars means today: You've been saving like a miser to get ready for retirement. You've pinched pennies, kept that last car for what seems like an eternity. And now you've banked a cool $1 million for your retirement years. Think you're set? Well, you very well might be. Then again, you still might be short. "The good news is there are more millionaires," says Richard G. Dragotta, at LPL Financial in Paramus, N.J. "Over 9 million people in the U.S. have $1 million or more." But, Dragotta says, $1 million might not mean you're wealthy: The new $1 million … [Read more...]
The Fool’s Gold
We’ve kept you up to date on the import restrictions on gold in India, and some of the ways Indians have been getting around those restrictions. But this one takes the cake. A man was admitted to surgery in New Delhi on April 9 with severe stomach pain and nausea. Guess what a surgeon found in the foolish man’s intestines? If you guessed 12 gold bars slightly larger than a troy ounce each, you guessed right. The lengths the Indians will go to in order to get gold across the border appear to be endless. Expect tunnels under the borders (if they don’t already exist) like those that have … [Read more...]
Smart Money Signals Trouble Ahead
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is bordering on a new all-time high, but the Smart Money Flow Index is cratering. The divergence between the Smart Money Flow Index and the Industrials puts the sustainability of any new high in the Dow into question. Stay cautious here. Smart Money Flow Index (source: Bloomberg) The Smart Money Flow Index is calculated by taking the action of the Dow in two time periods: the first 30 minutes and the close. The first 30 minutes represent emotional buying, driven by greed and fear of the crowd based on good and bad news. There is also a lot of buying … [Read more...]
Retail Sales Growth Worrisome
Growth in sales at retail chain stores has fallen again according to an ICSC-Goldman Sachs survey. You can see on the chart below that growth has been slowing for nearly two years and is now well below its historical average. … [Read more...]