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Archives for January 2015

The Brady-Belichick Curse

January 30, 2015 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

This falls under the heading of correlation does note equal causation, but so what. It gives me a reason to write about football—and to put up a Dick Butkus video. If you are a Patriots fan, I have some bad news for you. Your team is in the Super Bowl, but that probably means your portfolio is headed into the tank. When the Patriots play in the Super bowl with Brady as the Quarterback and Belichick as the head coach, the stock market goes on to have a stinker of a year. Check out the numbers in the table below. Brady-Belichick Super Bowl appearances are a curse for investors. In the … [Read more...]

Top 10: America’s Largest Landowners

January 29, 2015 By Young Research

From conservationists to media moguls to oil barons, ranchers, and timber tycoons, America’s largest landowners are a diverse crowd to be sure. The one thing the top 10 have in common is that they own over 800,000 acres of land in the United States. John Malone, 2,200,000 acres Ted Turner, 2,000,000+ acres Emmerson Family, 1,860,000 acres Brad Kelley, 1,500,000+ acres Reed Family, 1,370,000 acres Irving Family, 1,250,000 acres Singleton Family, 1,100,000 acres King Ranch Heirs, 911,215 acres Stan Kroenke, 848,631 acres Pingree Heirs, 830,000 acres For the top 100, … [Read more...]

A Dismal Forecast

January 28, 2015 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

“Who are you gonna believe, me or your own lying eyes” Groucho Marx From Bloomberg on October 23, 2014: Caterpillar Climbs After Raising Forecast on Construction “Caterpillar Inc., the largest construction-equipment maker, climbed the most in more than eight months after topping analysts’ profit estimates for the third quarter and raising its full-year earnings forecast.” Fast forward three months. Yesterday, Caterpillar reported fourth quarter results that disappointed Wall Street. The company lowered its forecast for 2015 on the back of falling oil prices. CEO Doug Oberhelman said … [Read more...]

The Cure for Oil Prices

January 27, 2015 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

There is a popular axiom in commodity markets that says the cure for high prices is high prices. The opposite is also true, and more relevant today. The cure for low commodity prices is low prices. In the oil market, low prices are already beginning to cure low prices. How? Drilling activity is plummeting as seen in my oil rig count chart. At oil prices below $50 per barrel, some U.S. oil wells aren’t profitable so companies are slashing capital budgets and reining in drilling activity.  Lower investment and drilling should ultimately lead to lower supply and higher prices.   … [Read more...]

The Monday Melee: Emergency Grexit?

January 26, 2015 By Young Research

Syriza Wins New Greek Parliament: Quotable: “Bond prices are now so high that yields on more than $4 trillion of the developed world’s sovereign debt have turned negative. That means investors effectively pay a dozen countries from Germany to France and Japan to borrow.” — Mynanda and Goodman, Bloomberg, Owners of Negative-Yield Sovereign Debt Say They’re No Fools What We’re Reading: Markets’ misplaced faith in central banks (Financial Times) Draghi pumps up everything with QE (Financial Times) The Greek Warning (The Wall Street Journal) Buyers Take a Shine to Gold, Silver … [Read more...]

A Rising Tide Lifts all….er… Index Boats

January 23, 2015 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Before you give your investment manager an ear full for trailing the S&P 500 last year, check out this article from Barron’s. Lots of useful insights that can help you stay the course and avoid the emotionally charged decisions that often sabotage long-term portfolio performance. It is no secret that index funds have gained in popularity in recent years. The proliferation of ETFs has been a big boon for the index fund community. According to the Investment Company Institute, in the first 11 months of 2014, investors pulled $96 billion from active U.S. equity funds and purchased over … [Read more...]

Is a 28% Investment Tax in Your Future?

January 22, 2015 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

I didn't catch President Obama’s state of the Union Address this week as I am sure many of you didn't either. There more pressing issues to address (like scrubbing the grout on my kitchen floor) than listening to a lame duck president boxed in on policy by an opposition Congress. I read about Obama’s speech though. His message was predictable—tax more and spend more. But the president did catch my attention with his proposal to raise the capital gains tax rate. He wants to hike the capital gains rate to 28%, as if 24% isn't high enough already. Raising the capital gains tax rate is … [Read more...]

ECB Finally Gets its Own QE

January 22, 2015 By Young Research

After years of German opposition and legal wrangling, the ECB will finally get to pursue its own quantitative easing policy. Bloomberg’s Jeff Black and Simon Kennedy write: Mario Draghi led the European Central Bank into a new era with an historic pledge to buy government bonds as part of an asset-purchase program worth about 1.1 trillion euros ($1.3 trillion). The ECB president side-stepped German-led opposition to quantitative easing in a once-and-for-all push to revive inflation and the euro-area economy. The central bank will buy 60 billion euros per month of securities until … [Read more...]

Breaking Bad, Breaking Good

January 22, 2015 By Dick Young

You are polishing off the final episode of Breaking Bad, ready to cry because one of the coolest series ever filmed was minutes from its end. Then comes on the finale music that would really finish you off. The perfect music to sound the closing notes for Breaking Bad was Badfinger’s “Baby Blue,” written by the group’s guitarist, keyboardist and vocalist, Pete Ham, produced by Todd Rundgren, and recorded in 1971. Ham wrote the song for a girl he had met on the band's 1971 U.S. tour. The Beatles signed Badfinger to Apple Records and produced some of the group's early records. For more from … [Read more...]

The Happiest Countries in the World

January 21, 2015 By Young Research

This is an excerpt from the January 2015 issue of Richard C. Young’s Intelligence Report, where Dick Young helps investors compound wealth with income generating strategies that seek to avoid risk. Dick uses his proven inference reading based investment strategy to recommend stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and exchange traded funds generating attractive shareholder returns. Richard C. Young’s Intelligence Report is designed for the discerning investor not the fad driven speculator. There's something about the Scandinavian countries. Despite brutal cold and scarce sunshine, the countries at … [Read more...]

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