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Archives for March 2018

Should Mark Zuckerberg Lead One of America’s Largest Companies?

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In the spirit of kicking somebody while he is down, check out the Facebook chart below. Facebook has been on the hot seat for a number of reasons, as you are likely aware. Chief among those reasons, but unsaid explicitly by the media, is that Facebook is responsible for the Donald Trump presidency. Take away the emotion of the issue and it is obviously far-fetched. But the recent Cambridge Analytica issue has provided more oxygen for the fire. Facebook’s response to the scrutiny has been embarrassing. Watch some of Zuckerberg’s CNN interview and ask yourself if this is a guy who should be … [Read more...]

Just How Low Can Jobless Claims Fall?

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Once again, the number weekly jobless claims has hit a low not seen since the 1970s. Initial jobless claims (seasonally adjusted) fell to 215,000 last week. That's the fewest claims for a week since January of 1973. Just how low can the number of initial claims go? … [Read more...]

Why I’m Buying Vanguard GNMA

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You always need to study your downside protection and do what’s difficult to do. Recently, I added half of my 2017 SEP-IRA contribution to Vanguard GNMA—a sizable addition to my overall GNMA position. I didn’t do it because I feel like I can predict where interest rates are headed. Who can? It’s all fine and good when the talking heads spout off about three or four rate increases this year and more to come next year, but in reality their advice doesn’t cost them a penny. If they’re wrong and the market crashes, like it did twice already this century, will they be there for you, or me for … [Read more...]

OPEC Wants More

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Despite oil prices sitting at post-2014 highs around $70/barrel, OPEC is aiming to keep production curbs in place. Reuters reports that while no immediate action is being contemplated by the cartel to increase production, the conversation has begun on the sidelines about a possible boost. Alex Lawler and Rania El Gamal write: OPEC, Russia and several other non-OPEC producers have curbed output since January 2017 to erase a global glut of crude that had built up since 2014. They have extended the pact until the end of 2018, and meet on June 22 to review policy. The deal has boosted oil … [Read more...]

Will Democrats Buy-in to Tax Cut 2.0?

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The Washington D.C. rumor mill is predicting an effort by the GOP to pass what has come to be known as Tax Cut 2.0. Republicans want to make permanent the individual tax cuts enshrined in last year's tax reform, and to make additional tax cuts. To get the cuts passed though, the GOP will need buy-in from at least 9 Democrats. Bloomberg reports: Democrats have assailed the new law as a giveaway to corporations and the wealthy, and they’ve called for drastic changes. “I’m ready to have a discussion with them. They want to fix some problems in the tax law? I want to fix some problems in … [Read more...]

RAGE Gauge: March Full of Risk

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Perhaps the second best gun salesman behind Obama is former Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens. While Mr. Stevens is calling for the repeal of the Second Amendment, real Americans are trying to figure out how to protect their family and their constitutional rights. Don’t delay in making sure your family and your portfolio are secure. My March Rage Gauge indicator continues to signal that risk is a four letter word that many are failing to pay attention to. Originally posted on Yoursurvivalguy.com. … [Read more...]

Join Me and Escape to Margaritaville🌴

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Escape to New York City It sure is nice to change your latitude every now and then—New York City in this case—where, if you live in New England, you don’t have to go too far to change your attitude, or have it changed for you. Such was the case this weekend which included an exciting industry conference, a somber visit to the 9/11 Memorial, and as the name to Jimmy Buffett’s musical implies, an Escape to Margaritaville. Let’s Talk about that Attitude When I was a kid my dad was a real estate broker. I remember him saying how important a positive attitude was for his business. “You … [Read more...]

Falling Short on Retirement: Should You Save More or Work Longer?

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The WSJ reports today on a new paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research illustrating the trade-off between working longer and saving more. NBER finds that delaying retirement and social security by just three to six months has the same impact on retirement income as saving 1% of your salary for 30 years. Sounds powerful. A couple of words of caution on the results though. Most of the benefit from working longer comes from higher social security payments. For each year you delay social security passed your full retirement age, your social security benefit can rise as much as … [Read more...]

Netflix Now Bigger than GE

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The market capitalization of Netflix shares is now greater than those of America's most storied blue chip industrial company, General Electric (GE). For comparison's sake, in 2017 GE generated free cash flows of $5.6 billion, and Netflix had negative free cash flows of $2 billion. Despite that disparity in actual business success, GE is going through management and legal turmoil, while Netflix is riding high on its status as one of the FAANG stocks. Time will tell whether investors care more about potential future cash flows, or those that actually exist today. … [Read more...]